/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18188120
what the fuck do you want me to do? buy exxon, get a greencard in murica, become a mercenary CIA contractor, start training anti-government troops in venezuela, and go all JACK FUCKING RYAN? so that xom can get dibbs on oil fields and make the towel heads obsolete? kinda makes sense actually.

>>17985595
I listen to the most eloquent of biz posters, people using big words like delta and the greeks. I have no idea what they mean but I just nod my head to not look stooopid.

My prediction is this.
DJI will drop to 15K before it starts going up again.
BTC will drop to $1200 or even lower.
Fuck china.

>>16982559
Okay, I'mma sperg out so lets just get this out of the way that I know this is a wall of text.

Maybe in Canada, but I'm an autistic sucker at best so I went over to the blog. In 2012 he was planning on $25,800/yr (canadian-dream-free-at-45 ... 2012/11/26/2012-retirement-calculations-part-i/) so +1 autist points for me pulling the 25,810.4/yr number at 4% of his December 2019 net worth.

That means that between 2012 and 2019, he was nominally on plan, but fell short after inflation. He would have needed $731,247.5 to pull the inflation adjusted $29k/yr. The Shiller CAPE for December 2019 was 30.91 which cribbing from the Early Retirement Now Part 3 blog post gives him an absolute best change of not running out of money of ~85%.

That's not terrible, but unfortunately he seems to be at about a 93% equity position which drops his predicted success rate down to about 50%. On the other hand, he's Canadian so if we set healthcare costs at an average of $10k/yr and credit that as virtual net worth by living in Canada, then his NW updates to approximately $895k, drops his withdrawal rate to 3.2%, and pushes his success rate back up close to 100%.

So, he is *maybe* set as long as there are no unexpected healthcare costs or other costs of similar size. He was an engineer though. My opinion is that he should have toughed it out for a few more years and given himself more of a margin of safety.

>>16843547
9600-9700 top of this run, we're going to 5200 and then, we begin the golden bull run. Screencap this.

Can one of you frens recommend me a least scummy platform for leverage trading?

>>16647684
Diversify. 50% in stocks and REITs. 50% in cash, bonds and gold. 0% in crypto.