/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49601160
It's finally coming.

China bailed the world out in 2008 by loading up on USTs. They aren't coming to the rescue this time. They couldn't, even if they wanted to.

>>24879117

>>22671434
Reminder that this almost happened last time, and that was when our relationship with China was much better than it is today

>>19674150
>>19674467
Couldn't be done unless all major debt-holding nations in the world come together at once and agree on the terms of the jubilee. If one or a couple of colluding nations agree (China, Russia) but then stab everyone else in the back at the last minute it won't end well for the USD. Ever play a game of Resistance lol?

Reminder that pic related almost happened in 2008

>>19137670
>There will be time to fix the debt and moral hazard after this crisis is over.
Except they never do, even in the "good" times. In the bad times it's "not the right time", and in the good times it's still "not the right time" because of some other bullshit reason. Any powers the govt/Fed gains, they will retain long after corona is over. They'll never unwind anything unless it's by force (China dumping our USTs onto the market, for example).

Powell was an alright guy in the beginning, he started us down the right path of unwinding the debt. But the markets threw a petulant tantrum after just a LITTLE bit of QT, and suddenly the old Powell was dead forever. He completely 180d on all his policies. He is already the president's MMT puppet through and through.

You've been drinking the MSM kool-aid of "we can't worry about the debt right now". They want you to believe that we can just continue to kick the can down the road. "Can't worry about losing weight right now, that would cause me way too much pain in the short term, and I can't take that right now!" So instead of buckling down and taking the medicine now, we'll get the heart attack later. And people like you will be just as much to blame as the Fed itself

>>18608062
And also assuming people even CAN go back to previous spending habits even if they wanted to (which they don't). Tens of millions of jobs lost, 20+% unemployment coming, individuals and companies alike saddled to their ears with debt. And this time there won't be a China coming to the rescue to buy up all the US debt like they did in '08.

Face the fucking music

>>18354708
>giving chinks money

I just can't wait for all the movies/documentaries that will be made about this

>>18268131
>>18268139
Yeah they basically did, the US govt literally took them over, and still hold "conservatorship" over Fannie/Freddie

>>18203332
I don't believe it's really you but funny larp anyway

>>17744264
Hey, I've been trying to get info out in these threads. Lemme link some archives for you:
>>17730722
>>17730738

Also this playlist / channel. https://youtu.be/thfJXeMzedc?list=PLdIZc_RaumFDlP041khqznqCOZrMsEgji

Also go to this thread in the archives https://archived.moe/biz/thread/16006742
Ctrl+F for OP's ID DqWJwyDo and read those posts in particular, but the whole thread is good.

>>17731133
see
>>17730722
>>17730738

Also this playlist / channel. https://youtu.be/thfJXeMzedc?list=PLdIZc_RaumFDlP041khqznqCOZrMsEgji

Also go to this thread in the archives https://archived.moe/biz/thread/16006742
Ctrl+F for OP's ID DqWJwyDo and read those posts in particular, but the whole thread is good.

>>16739054
This is the warosu version that actually archives the pictures too like this one, but doesn't show the IDs >>/biz/thread/S16006742

>>16182609
Also reminder that the depression was narrowly avoided in 2008. Fed/Paulson/etc were credited with "saving the world" by re-inflating the bubble before it could completely pop with trillions of freshly printed dollars. In a healthy market downcycle, debt is deleveraged, but that didn't happen. Now we have more debt than ever, and China is our #1 creditor

>>16154554
That's because it's all true, the debt-based economy that caused the global financial crisis was never fixed, they just printed money into banks and asset inflation and kicked the can down the road. If 2008 had been able to properly pop, it would have been much worse, probably close to the Great Depression, but better and cleansing in the long run for the global economy. Instead they printed a fuckton of money to re-inflate everything and now they're at the point where they can't print much more or risk severe inflation and they can't lower funds rate much more or risk severe deflation, so next time it'll be Great Depression Kaioken x4 and they're all out of options, they know it, Powell's only real job is just to lull the public into a false sense of security with soothing bedside manner as the flatline comes, and it will come

>>16103628
>government knows in order to save it's ass they have to keep the lights on
Except it's very unlikely they'll be able to this time, they're out of ammunition. Rates are already near zero, QE is already being deployed at a faster rate than the Great Recession and it's still not doing anything to alleviate the situation. The bubbles are much larger, and this time nearly all 1st/2nd world countries are in the same boat. This isn't going to be a recession, it's going to be a decade-long depression.

>>16007729
The "good" thing to do, the thing they SHOULD HAVE done back in 2008 was to just let the market crash hard, and let the banks fail because they fucked up big time. It would have been horrible, but also cleansing for the economy in the long run.

The problem with that was that there was a good chance we wouldn't have emerged as still the #1 superpower in the end. Therein lies the real dilemma and why it's not just "The Fed" but the whole aristocracy itself in Washington.

Instead they chose to print more USD, and borrow ridiculous amounts of money from other nations (mostly China). We're the biggest debtor nation in the world now, we haven't seen a debt ratio this high since WWII, and it's not even wartime (yet). They took all this money and injected it back into the banking system to bail it out and re-inflate the bubbles.

I think they're going to try to do the same thing this time, but I don't know if it will work again. The debt bubble is so much larger, and countries all around the world are in similar states. Sooner or later, the whole monetary system is going to blow up and reset. It's a mathematical certainty, unless magically all world leaders and CEOs can come together and agree on some miracle plan to simultaneously forgive and reset all global debt. Which isn't going to happen obviously

Reminder that pic related almost happened last time, and that was when we had a much better relationship with China

Reminder that this almost happened last time, the Global Financial Crisis would have been much, much worse. And that was back when we had a much better relationship with China.

Meanwhile the current debt/housing/equity bubble is far greater than in '08. Not just in nominal terms, but in percentage of GDP as well. If this happened today it would easily rival the Great Depression. It took 17 years for GDP to recover back to the point it was before the 1929 crash.

And China's portion of the USA debt has ballooned up over a trillion, and they've surpassed Japan to become our largest creditor. They don't even need Russia anymore to launch WOMFD whenever they want to.