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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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>> No.29653265 [View]
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29653265

The crosses indicate the peaks and troughs of the last 3 bear markets on the SP. Through out history, the market has peaked as the curve goes negative and it reaches its trough around the same time the spread gets to its widest. This pattern holds true for other market crashes and recessions in the 20th century. In 2020 the peak was reached a few months after it had gone negative, and then collapsed and reached its trough before the yield spread had even moved an inch. Now we are facing an unprecedent point in history where yields are going up at the same time that the stock market is also melting upwards towards astronomical highs every week. One of these forces will give way very soon - likely in the next few months (ps its the share market).

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