/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>29041317
All real treasury yields remain negative; every time frame; bills, notes, and bonds.
>https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
A rise in treasury yields could signify less buying pressure in those securities, increasing expectations for inflation, and/or an associated expectation for an increase in interest rates to compensate. The 2 year and 10 year notes are often used as benchmarks for the shorter and longer end of the yield curve to gauge anticipated inflation, economic health, and risk premium (by extension, appetite for risk assets). Their spread also gives some idea on investor sentiment. Generally speaking, rising yields would present an alternative "risk-free" investment option as compared to equities. But, again, real treasury yields are negative - you're not beating expected inflation, which raises the question: why bother? Pic related. The 2 year note remains flat/continues to decrease, increasing the 10 year - 2 year spread the more that the 10 year yield rises, despite market-wide expectations for future inflation. That could mean more buying pressure in short term treasuries, off-setting rising yields from an inflation expectation standpoint; i.e., a continued flight to safety in anticipation of pressure on markets and the economy.

The real question is, with all of the talk of bubbles and euphoria in the news lately, how comfortable are investors with the "don't fight the Fed" strategy. In reality, interest rates cannot realistically rise for years-to-come without serious consequences to the expanded debt bubble, made worse by last year. Will inflation escape the asset/capital markets and make it into the real economy, and on what time frame? What will happen to the USD, globally, as a result, and how will it impact markets? Or, what we care about, equities, particularly in a world where your average investor has few other alternatives for real/positive returns. PM/crypto?