/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>10660760
Turkey is fucked as long as Erdogan is president i think. And that's going to last a while

>>10660760
>which could finally be the spark that lights the next global financial meltdown.
why? why is turkey so important?

>Erdogan’s remarks came just hours before markets reopen after a plunge in the lira on Friday sent tremors through global markets. At one point, the currency fell as much as 17 percent against the dollar, fanning fears that the financial tumult could spread to Europe and other emerging markets near and far.

More information on Bloomberg, FT, Zerohedge and related. Anyone have plans on taking advantage of this crisis? Myself, I am doubling contributions to my EM fund and considering Turkish bonds.

>>10660801
also, is anyone shorting the lira? ive never traded forex before but it seems like an easy play. are there any forex sites that let you trade with leverage with crypto?

>>10660814
you can long usd/lira on 1broker with bitcoin

>>10660801
Foreign money - many banks have lots of $$$ there (Unicredit stopped trading on Friday due to the currency plunge), also significant investment from China due to their Belt & Road Initiative. More importantly it threatens to tear apart the entire Eurozone and maybe even NATO. I don't like to be a doomsayer but if that happens I could see Russia, China, Turkey and Iran forming a new economic/military coalition and finally start flexing on the rest of the world.

>global financial meltdown
won't happen
bond markets and fiats will
but collapse? like stocks? nah.

>>10660835
>Minimum: 500BTC
what?

>>10660760
I don't think Turkish banks weigh enough to start the whole financial apocalypse but it's coming sooner rather than later for sure. I already pulled all my savings from the bank and bought physical gold. Retards invest in crypto, reasonable and intelligent people get physical gold.

>>10660760
Turkey is on the way to total meltdown.
Came back from there and I can tell you that some shit is brewing. Felt like communist era. Everybody rats their foes to the police/security and people get arrested like picking apples. They get more desperate to steal from tourists, lots of police and security on the main areas, raids in cities, nepotism, corruption, you fucking name it.
It is like in Babylon when it crumbled. Spoopy as shit.
So my bet is they'll collapse this year.
Not really sure if it will cause world collapse though. Argentina didn't cause any world collapse when they defaulted. Greece also, was just a victim of big boys fucking arrownd.

>>10660814
Long usd.

>>10660878
-0.05% wew lad, you'll be rich when you're dead.

>>10660902
why? you mean long it against the lira? its the same thing isnt it?

>>10660915
Gold rates plunge at the start of financial crisis as actors sell desperately to pay off their debts. Then gold prices surge to crazy levels because it's a refuge value. Go mortgage your house for some shitcoins before spewing uneducated bs.

https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1028719419076370433
>#BREAKING #Turkey’s Lira plunges to record low of 7.22 against dollar in Asian trade

>>10660878
On strict investment terms you are right.
But what if some countries already planned for using crypto to replace fiat?

>>10660955
Relax man

>>10660929
Against Lira ofc. And use 5-10% leverage if you have balls. Should work though.

>>10660974
I doubt they'll allow btc/altcoins to be converted into official state cryptocurrency and there is no reason for gold to suddenly become cheap.

Failed at genocide against women & kids. filthy roaches need to be eradicated.

>>10660879
Turkey controls the flow of refugees to Europe. They are the gatekeepers for the majority of middle eastern refugees. If they collapse, or don't get a bailout from Europe, they will release the horde onto Europe 10X what is currently being done.

This is not the same situation as Greece or Argentina. This is a migrant issue as well as an economic issue, that could have contagion effects for European banks.

watch closely. And if you are in Europe, pray.

>>10660873
MAXIMUM

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR
>how you want your currency senpai?
>JUST
>say no more

Looks like I forgot about Asia. It was nice knowing you all.

>>10661206
i told you>>10660970

Uhhhh. Do I buy more gold now?

>>10661240
Just sit back, relax and pour yourself a drink. Put on a movie or some vidya.
Then in six months China nukes Okinawa and we're all toast.

>>10661314
Yeah ok but until then I want to buy a lambo K?

so my question is, what causes such volatility in forex markets? turkey didnt suffer any type of major credit downgrade that caused this did they? Is it not likely that erdogan is correct and institutional money is being moved to put pressure on the currency for smashing kurds and cuddling up to russia/iran? why do price movements happen in forex markets as opposed to normal equities

>>10661095
I pray ofc.
But rn I don't see migrants in Turkey such a big issue. A huge humanitarian crisis will mean a whole new level of collapse for Turkey, not just the banckruptcy level. Just wish for the EU to come with some solution in case some big EU banks encounter hardships b/c of Turkey collapse.
Turkey got alot of money when they were on a roadmap towards EU integration. Which won't ever happen, we know now. I think this shitshow now is just an exitscam. They crush the Lira, go bankrupt, come up with dinars or shit and won't pay shit back b/c they went bankrupt.

When the euro/us markets hit 7 lira/usd tomorrow how big will the shitstorm be in turkey?

>>10661366
That's a really good question and I wish I had a better answer. Erdogan is not totally wrong in the sense that policy changes in US & Eurozone have been a significant contributing factor, but his stubbornness and ideology-driven approach to central bank policy have done Turkey absolutely no favors. The Fed & euro central banks are more concerned with the integrity of their own systems rather than political maneuvering around other countries (though when it happens it's a nice bonus if you come out on top). Basically it's like Erdogan is a goalie and he's decided to block shots on the net with his face. Why not just use your hands, dumbass?

>>10661436
Allah is with them, so I guess they will say a prayer, eat a kebab, declare the Lira a weapon of the jews, then at about 14,00 hours they will declare bankruptcy and default all debt ofc. Then at about 15,00 hours declare the Turkish Dinar the new coin, swap it for 10 TL each and by dinner Turkey is once again a prosperous debt free nation.

>>10660878
>New stuff scares me because I don't understand it, so I put my money in shiny rocks.

>>10661206
>Turkish banks cannot remain solvent if USD/lira rises above 7.1
wtf happens now then...

>>10661541
I guess we'll see the result tomorrow.

>>10661503
They will also rename the country to Pigeon

>>10661609
hearty kek

>>10660760
Hmm we could import clothing now really cheap.

>>10661609
underrated

>>10661609
i dont get it

>>10661668

>>10660760
Already shorted the hell out of EUR/USD pairs and watching out for AUD/USD, NZD/USD and a whole host of other currencies. Already made decent gains when I shorted the Euro last friday. Got myself a 10% profit on the downward movement.

>>10660814
Oanda is the best broker for forex if you want to trade currencies.

>>10660849
>it threatens to tear apart the entire Eurozone
Nah. The EU never wanted turkey, ever.

>>10660814
The Lira spreads on forex were wide before this panic and have gotten wider...most retail traders are just watching it but trading other pairs like many euro pairs with the euro most exposed to the Lira

How bad is it going to be?

>>10661792
Italian and Greek banks are heavily exposed to Turkey

>>10661668

The "i" is silent

>>10661095
The thing is that the EU is basically the Franco German empire and despite recent events if push comes to shove they will send a million Africans to the bottom of the ocean in the middle of the night is they have to. Don't ever assume that German or French leadership feels a genuine deep humanitarianism for anyone but themselves, The only thing their navies are worried about in the med is any survivors living to tell the tale. Turkey can do what it likes they will just bring out trawler nets to collect the bodies so they don't spoil the beaches in southern France and Spain.

>>10661838
post source now faggot. Biggest exposure is BBVA and its peanuts.

>>10661792
I can't find the chart but Spanish banks are stupidly invested in Turkey.

>>10661541
>>Turkish banks cannot remain solvent if USD/lira rises above 7.1wtf happens now then...


IMF

>>10661876
>turkey
>imf
Not likely, more likely some russian/chinese bailout

>>10661855
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/if-turkey-implodes-heres-who-else-gets-hurt.html

>>10661838
>Italian and Greek banks are heavily exposed to Turkey
And the ECB will bail them out. Again. Its nothing to the EU and Italy to do so (Italy has large gold reserves BTW) in any sense except a mild relief to Greece if Turkey goes down the shitter. Its an excuse for another Greek bailout possibly but still no sweat for the EU.

>>10661892
If that happened shit would hit the fan massively . They're in NATO.

>>10661913
Their nato membership is already tenuous since america is sanctioning them and not allowing them to get f-35s

>>10661926
>not allowing them to get f-35s
We shouldn't be giving ANYONE F-35s.

>>10661840
pgeon?
what?

>>10661926
Keep in mind there are nukes there. Also, that it's important against russia.

>>10661945

It's 2 syllables not 1. Sharp G.

>>10661905
As I said, BBVA with an odd 100bn. Total exposure is probably 200bn all in all. Probably 5 banks in total that have been killing it there. Nothing the ECB can't handle.

>>10661949
Turkey have also vowed to keep trading with iran despite sanctions, their eastern pivot is as blatant as can be

I wonder if GBP will be affected.

>>10660760
Will Erdogan be hang?

>>10661854
this guy fucking gets it like no other

>>10661892
>Not likely, more likely some russian/chinese bailout

Turnkey is in the IMF. Russia has not got a pot to piss in and is not mush bigger (Germanys economy alone is twice the size of Russia, the EU 11 times the size of Russia) Russias shrinking economy is on 55% greater than Turkeys and they are already cancelling weapons programs and severe pay cuts. China is too far gone in debt. Turkey is in the IMF and will go there with a begging bowl when banks start collapsing or alternately Turkey will start a war with Egypt or Israel.

>>10662010
If turkey gets really fucked it would hurt the EU a lot so it could have mixed effects on GBP

can someone give me the quick rundown on why this is happening? is it because of Erdogan? been somewhat following since the military coup back in 2016 but don't know whats going on this year

>>10661949
>Keep in mind there are nukes there
Not really important these days. The Americans could nuke Russia from eastern Europe. The Russians invited them to by placing missile forces there themselves

>>10660760

Erdogan quote:

"'if they have their dollar, we have the people, we have Allah'"

Holy shit, hes about to allahu snackbar the entire region

>>10662031
Various things. Ultimately it boils down to "Erdogan is mental".

>>10662010
>Will Erdogan be hang?
He did a pogrom so he's safe for now but will double down on political policing. He may do a way.

>>10660814
I've been long USD/TRY since 5.6

>>10662048
he'll play the war card, Egypt or Israel tho....

>>10662010
Nah. He's completely bedding in as dictator. It'd be very hard to get rid of him now.

>>10662100
Surely Egypt. As crazy as he may be, he's not "attack Israel" crazy.

>>10662053
>>10662053
>"Erdogan is mental".
not really from the arab/ottoman perspective he's the 'hard man' leader, that shit always floats with muslims

>>10662103
No it won't be. Crash their economy and the opposition will gain ground, the opposition already have like 38%.
Just a matter of time before we see Erdogan being dragged behind a car, IF he doesn't give in to the demands.

>>10662111
>Surely Egypt. As crazy as he may be, he's not "attack Israel" crazy.
well he needs a war.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HEEELLLPPPPPP

I DIDN'T FUCKING BUY AT 4.5 AND NOW ITS 8 ASAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

IM GONNA DIEEEEEEEE

>>10662124
Nah. I remember seeking young turks celebrating his election by causing chaos in france speeding in cars in town centres he literally owns what goes out in Turkish media. He'll pull the nationalist card and he needs a war

Maybe a minor incident with Greece, sink some small greek navy vessel, or some stick waving at Israel ? His best bet for an actual war is probably Egypt or to annex a chunk of Syria in entirety

>>10662154
Yeah exactly, he needs war to survive. But who is he going to fight?
There's literally nobody around except Assad in Syria, but if he does that then RIP relations with Russia.

>>10660760
Why doesn't the US government just short the lira, dump it and buy tons of lira with the profit after it dumps while in a long position?
National Ministry of Bart.

>>10662174
Having considered all options, Greece. A standoff with the greeks over some fucking island with a few shots exchanged or some limited action

Okay. So I should long usd/try with 10x leverage when the market opens?

>>10662174
SDF in Syria?

>>10662019

>Turkey will start a war with Egypt or Israel.

>start a war with Israel


fuggggg muh dickkkkkkkkkk

Yeah geece. He's going to have a pop at Greece

"ISTANBUL (Reuters) - A Turkish court has ruled to keep in custody two Greek soldiers who were detained in Turkey in March, the Hurriyet newspaper reported on Tuesday, in a case which has escalated tensions between the two neighboring NATO allies.

Greece says the soldiers crossed into Turkey by mistake while following the trail of suspected illegal migrants. Turkish courts have ordered their detention pending trial on suspicion of illegal entry and attempted military espionage.
"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-greece-military/turkish-court-rules-to-keep-two-greek-soldiers-in-custody-newspaper-idUSKBN1K713Z

Greece

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2018/08/05/turkey-slams-greece-for-blocking-extradition-of-yet-another-terror-suspect
Turkey slams Greece for blocking extradition of yet another terror suspect

Where can I watch the charts live?

>>10662198
anyone help this newfag

Okay the actual reason why TL is collapsing

>get investment money from US like all developing nations
>instead of spending it on tourism, industry, agriculture etc. decide to spend all on buildings and roads
>make lots and lots of apartment complexes that nobody buys
>make lots of roads and bridges that nobody uses
>villagers sell their fields to buy more shares in the concrete jungle
>agriculture collapses
>start exporting even fucking wheat
>literally nobody producing anything
>eventually run out of money
>get fucked

I should have seen it coming. I should have fucking sold my 45k worth of crypto back in januray and tether up. Now I only have fucking 11k LINK, 27k REQ and 23k fucking Lira

literally worthless trash. If LINK doesn't become $100 I'm going to kill myself. Sergey is my only hope.

also fuck req fucking french scammers

I honestly can't sleep, I've lost so much fucking money

>ATH in jan is worth 180k
>now it's wort 350k

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

is this about to gap up?

>>10662223
>>10662240
Neato.

Or should I say NATO.

So....nothing too big but take some fucking uninhabited Island and let the Turkish media shout WAR so the opposition have to shut up or be labelled traitors. Greece. Hurts the EU, pleases the Russians popular with his supporters

Oh and you literally can't buy USD/EUR/gold etc. from the banks right now, it's closed

Do you guys think I should just go out and buy physical gold with my 23k Lira? or go all in on crypto?

>>10662245
Dailyfx.com
You want USD/TRY

>>10662221
>starting a war with a nation with nukes

>>10662196
And you expect him to stay in power after going at it with a member of NATO which his own country is a part of?
If that happens, sanctions won't just be coming from the US. Most of the world would agree to put sanctions on them for attacking Greece.

They would get pressure on them from UN aswell which would completely tank their economy even more.

>>10662215
That's pretty much a war they have been fighting for years though. A tiny war between Turks and Kurds won't save him.

>>10662264
Both sides in NATO they will be left to resolve this themselves, it won't be a real war just some tit for tat and unoccupied islans changing hands a few times, some minor greek navy vessels, lots of medals on both sides, main thing for time is that it is slow and ongoing and can be headline news for six months

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said if it reached 7:1 vs the USD, it would be game over for Turkish banks. It got to 6.8:1 before falling back to 6.4:1. And without support from China or the IMF, it would indeed appear the game’s up.

>>10662295
It's currently 7.6 at my bank, we are fucked tomorrow morning

>>10662289
Greece and Turkey regularly have military spats. Cyprus being the last big one but plenty of little ones. Not a problem for him, its not like Turkeys once apon a time wish of joining the EU will ever happen. None of the EU governments want them

>>10662295
IMF and a military encounter with Greece to cover the austerity announcements which will be dressed up as national sacrifice to maintain a Turk war machine

>>10662321
>Cyprus

If they fight over Cyprus things might get spicy, there's a big British RAF base there.

>>10662223
>>10662240
That's just a reaction for greeks not returning the fetö soldiers, nothing important

>>10660760
here's hoping for 7.6 and a real estate and stock market and forex crash so that us zoomers can buy houses and bitcoin is flocked towards as a safe haven

So...short Greek bonds (if that is even possible), real estate in Cyprus (if that is even possible) tourism industries involving greek islands, he won't go for anything that matters like Rhodes tho.

>>10662321
I'm telling you right now, they won't be stupid enough to start a war with anyone.
Their economy was already in the toilet before Trump got involved, risking almost the entire world to turn against them for starting a war against someone would be suicide.

>>10662283

Tough call bud, but I mean at least with crypto you'll have an easier time buying and selling it - I imagine shit in your country might get a little tough and having physical gold could make you a target.

Good luck.

HOLY

Going to be an interesting week anyhow. Euro banking panick might start to escalate

4 major european banks will fefault because of turkish investments, in two months there will be no more euro

>>10662178
What do you think economic war is about?

>>10662419
Brexit means brexit

F

>>10662419

Which 4?

>>10662361
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-blasts-irresponsible-remarks-by-greek-minister-135689
Turkey blasts 'irresponsible' remarks by Greek minister

http://www.ekathimerini.com/230716/article/ekathimerini/news/turkish-ambassador-urges-greece-not-to-give-impunity-to-coup-plotters

Turkish ambassador urges Greece not to give impunity to ‘coup plotters’

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/turkey-warns-israel-and-egypt-over-cyprus-19259
"Turkey’s Foreign Ministry has warned ambassadors to the Greek Cypriot-administered southern Cyprus to not “exceed their limits” in response to the envoys of Israel and Egypt, who last week both suggested that military action against Turkish naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean was an option."

https://greekcitytimes.com/2018/06/07/turkish-navy-sets-up-warships-and-commandos-in-the-aegean/
"An extremely dangerous move has taken place today as Turkey escalates tensions between Ankara and Athens on the Aegean Sea.

According to state agency broadcaster Anadolu, Ankara has ordered a frigate, two missiles and a command group from their Navy and told them to be ready and waiting at all times.

The command is said to have been given due to the tension prevailing in the Aegean, with Ankara insisting they are making this move “because of Greece’s effort to increase tension in the Aegean.”

This comes just as Turkish President Erdogan has been quoted as saying ,”Our neighbours in Greece are finished, they have gone bankrupt. Nevertheless, (the international agencies) have upgraded them. These people (the Greeks) sank, collapsed, are you able to save them by upgrading them? Look at their roads and streets and see how bad they are now, “Erdogan said in a speech.
"

>>10662433
?

>>10662419

It won't happen unless it's DB.

>>10662442
DB has enough problems already.

>>10662440
1broker not updating price

>>10662397
>>10662397
>I'm telling you right now, they won't be stupid enough to start a war with anyone.

Priority one for him is in staying in power and silence the opposition, only fanning ultranationalism and a small conflict will help him achieve that objective while he deals with the IMF

>>10662419
>in two months there will be no more euro
not happening
>>10662432
if only anyone actually knew what that means tho'

>>10661854
Nothing would make me happier but I dont see it happening

>>10662419
I say two years... But I agree overall
Time to prep

>>10662439
Erdogan is like headless chicken running around. He is losing control over his country and dictatorship

>>10662419
lol total exposure is maybe $200b. Thats fucking nothing. Its 5 banks and the only bank with major local exposure is BBVA. Thats peanuts to the ECB. Come back when DB starts crumbling.

So is it supposed to be live?

>>10662517
my broker died

>>10662485
>Nothing would make me happier but I dont see it happening
Nothing to celebrate in people dying. That being said the whole point I am making is you won't see it happening when it does. The EU is not the US. France and Germany oligarchies would happily have million people drown to avoid public unrest. They just let inflatables sink or tow them back to the middle of the med until they do. No one will know or care

>>10662517

Why is DailyFX still showing the market as being closed?

>>10662501
>Erdogan is like headless chicken running around. He is losing control over his country and dictatorship


He actually has a pretty strong support base. I don't think he is going anywhere. Its a linguistic cage that he owns, there will be no challenge to him internally.

>>10662549
Need some kind of proofs

>>10662558
Use D view, not 1H or whatever

>>10661095
>Turkey controls the flow of refugees to Europe.
Italy is closed, Bulgaria has always been closed, Greece will close soon. Only Spain remains open and it is far away. Refugees will not be a problem.

>>10662569
>there will be no challenge to him internally.

That is not good news for turks. Like some south american emerging markets, their future outlook is very bad

>>10662223
>>10662240
Nah, that's just basic Turkey - Greece relationship

>>10662549
>Nothing to celebrate in people dying
These migrants are not people.
They just come here to leech of our welfare system and to rape women. These "people" will be the end of Europe if nothing is done. Traitors like Merkel and Macron would never sink their boats though, even if they should.

WTF 1BROKER

>>10662283
use vaultoro for holding gold and withdrawing in bitcoin. ref link if you are feeling nice www.vaultoro.com/?a=107662

>>10662549
Remember also that this shit is not new at all. Italy was already dealing with border issues, migrants drowning, organized trafficking and all of that shit for years (pre Qaddafi fall). Renzi brought this up with the EC and was literally laughed out of the room. Burgers commenting on cucked EU have no idea.

>>10662283
are there premiums right now?

>>10662570
You seem to be missing my point.

it is happening
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-migrant-crisis-rescue-boats-refugees-drowning-charity-mediterranean-a8423261.html

EU condemns rescue boats picking up drowning refugees in Mediterranean as leaders side with populists


The European Union has backed the policy of Italy’s new populist government on the vessels

https://www.msf.org/european-government-policies-condemn-people-be-locked-libya-or-drown-sea

European government policies condemn people to be locked up in Libya or drown at sea

What happens at night in the middle of the med stays there. Its not a fish pond.EU naval vessels don't have to do anything but stand off in the wrong direction while the boats move towards their lights until they sink. Never consider those that govern the Franco-German empire as giving a shit about muslims. They don't aside form PR

>>10662597
>That is not good news for turks. Like some south american emerging markets, their future outlook is very bad

IMF and austerity hits Turkey yes, But the Turkish people will be told that cutbacks are necessary to keep military spening good and be show footage of vapourware military toys as a pacifier and Turkey stronk shit. Its worked in Russia after all.

>>10662453
Market closed?

???

>>10662679
Well that's appalling. I don't know what's going to happen once we hit the actual climate refugee crisis, it will make the current one look like nothing.

>>10662620
>These migrants are not people.
Look, they are, they are not people you like, or want alive, or want in your country but they are people. That is what it is. They will drown and stop coming and that will be the end of it an it has begun.

>>10662705
oh fuck..

>>10662705

Wow a healthy and a good discussion on /biz/. Nice.

>>10662679
The fact is these people have no future in the EU an neither do muslims. Its a hard cruel world.

>>10662255
I used your roads and paid good money for it. 65TL for HGS and 100TL for some piece of highway from Istanbul to Bodrum.
Anyway your people are trash and my point is that you can take people out of the trash but can't take out the trash from the people. Trash will allways be trash.
Maybe that is the bottom problem.
Stayed in the Balcans all this summer.
You have no place next to greeks or bulgarians. Your place is outright a fucking horror show compared to Gr and Bg. All that related to tourism, education and civilization.
Even in fucking Mauritius I haven't seen worst scum and we are talking about the average nigger.
I hope some war starts and you will be pushed back in Pakistan as fucking fugees!
Fucking scum !

I expect harder regulations on capital movement in Turkey.

>>10662283
Buy Bitcoin. You can also convert your Bitcoin holdings to synthetic dollars at anytime using Bitmex contracts if the volatility is too much for you. Either way it will hold up better than Lira.

How the fuck do I make money off this?
I'm in US

>>10662712
>Well that's appalling. I don't know what's going to happen once we hit the actual climate refugee crisis, it will make the current one look like nothing.

Med can hold quite a lot of bodies and after Ethiopia and Rwanda along with islam Europeans are just going to shrug and leave them drown. You forget. The EU was quite happy to slaughter missions of its own in WW1 and WW2, It may PR as some sort of SJW state but its an un-democratic economic superpower second only to the US. No one in berlin or Paris will cry little tears for brown people drowning in the med. I do not agree with the man made climate change hypothesis. It was create for geopolitical and strategic reasons.

>>10662283
Gold isn't a bad idea.

Lowered down to 6.8 for now, it will almost certainly go back to 7 in eurotrading

>>10662784
Short using bitcoin like stated above. Or long if you are optimistic.

>>10662784
>How the fuck do I make money off this?I'm in US
You already are then

>>10662788
Fun's over for tonight then?

>>10662837
maybe, only time will tell, europe will probably be a shitshow when it comes to trading though when it opens, expect lira well over 7

>>10662679
The impression I'm getting is that the EU leadership doesn't mind MENA migration at all.

In fact, it happens to be consistent with what they discuss in supranational organizations, conferences, and agreements like the recent Marrakech declaration that is in part supposed to ease migration from Africa to Europe.

You also have earlier "Replacement Population" publications by the UN or "The Business Case for Migration", recently discussed at a World Economic Forum (in 2013?), and it looks like the conspiracy theories about abusing the asylum system to achieve more immigration to achieve some strategic goals is far, far closer to the truth than the "humanitarian" narrative.

They may also be well prepared to accept unrest, e.g. to use the crisis to bring about a tougher surveillance state, stronger EU integration, as well as take the attention away from other issues like the crisis in the financial system.

>>10660801

European banks have investments in Turkey, if they drop due to Erdogan being a tard then it could choke the entire Eurozone banking system which would fuck up every other major economy (America, China, Russia). Obviously there was Unicredit's issues in 2016, and Deutchebank failed the US Fed's stress tests earlier this year. All of this are major red flags to investors, especially when there is no plan b due to Trump's trade war.

tl;dr strap in motherfucker

>>10662880
So basically you're saying Trump is responsible for the next financial crash?

>>10660872

>bonds go bad
>banks short on money, demands money back from margin traders
>many investors fucked while market volume collapses as they are forced to cash out
>less volume = less buying = lower stock prices
>lower stock prices = investors can't make margin calls meet, causing them to go broke

it's a death cycle, similar to the 2008 crash

>>10662880
stop with the habbening bullshit please

>>10662785
>implying i'm gonna listen to some pleb who is 3iq according to his id

>>10662893
That is not entirely bullshit. Eurobanks are a disaster

>>10662889

In a sense yes. A crash was always going to happen, it's an intrinsic part of capitalism (the "business cycle") but Trump merely forced the issue sooner rather than later. Dunno if you watch PBS but Wealthtrack's commentators described it well; under Hilary they would have gotten 5-6 more years until the cycle ends (crashes) while under Trump it's going down over the next 1-2 years. Hilary would have kept it on life support while Trump pushed it out a window.

To be clear, again it must be stressed that this is a cycle. Business reinvestment will happen, especially in America as money moves from the coasts back into the industrial belt (Ohio, Michigan, etc) as the globalist economy is replaced by a domestic one. However not all countries are America and the Eurozone, whose crippling structural problems have not been addressed, will get fucked. China will experience their first recession ever and it's not clear what will happen.

All of this was inevitable, but it's happening sooner under Trump.

>>10662928
your sexual life is a disaster

>>10660785
i concur. this is a life and death struggle between western democracy and eastern totalitarian state. it's a war of ideologies and values. and in this war the west still holds the biggest guns.

>>10662889
Nothing could be further from the truth. Turkey was a disaster way before trump's tiny sanction. Even sub prime was a tiny disaster in a big picture which is unbelievable debt problem these countries have

>>10661095
I'm praying for the refugees. Hope they can make a better life for themselves here in Europe. Fuck borders.

>>10662973

>>10662958
other turkish political movements are also not internally democratic or especially committed to democracy in the country

other turkish political movements are also opposed to gulen, "kurdistan," war with iran. there is a national consensus about the core political issues in the us-tr relationship

a deal can still be reached on the edges about things like the american banker and the turkish banker who's in prison for evading iran sanctions, but america does not want turkey to be sovereign it will not win the support of anti-erdogan turks

>>10662893

wake up

>Understanding The Italian Banking Crisis, A New Lead Domino?
>Dec. 30, 2016 8:30 AM ET
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4033365-understanding-italian-banking-crisis-new-lead-domino

>Deutsche Bank fails Fed stress test while three U.S. lenders stumble
>JUNE 28, 2018 / 8:35 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-stresstests/deutsche-bank-fails-fed-stress-test-while-three-u-s-lenders-stumble-idUSKBN1JO33U

>ECB Fears Contagion from Turkish Lira Collapse, Bank Stocks Plunge
>Aug 10, 2018
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/10/bbva-bnp-unicredit-european-banks-plunge-ecb-contagion-turkey-lira/

>At the top of the risk list, as we’ve been warning since 2016, is Spain’s second largest lender, BBVA, whose stock on Friday plunged 5.4% on news that the ECB is concerned that the Spanish bank, along with France’s BNP Paribas and Italy’s Unicredit, could be particularly impacted by Turkey’s gathering currency crisis. According to the FT, the ECB has been following developments at the three lenders closely for the last two months.

That's not to say it's going to happen tomorrow, or over the next week, or in the next month, but unless there is a major reversal in Turkish policy the situation can not improve. As Trump ramps up his trade war to China's entire trade deficit, investors would have to turn to Russia for optimism but Russia is being hit with sanctions aimed at hurting their economy. This is how fear begins, spreads, and turns into panic. The question is when the inflection point is hit, since time is ticking down.

>>10662958
other turkish political movements are also not internally democratic or especially committed to democracy in the country

other turkish political movements are also opposed to gulen, "kurdistan," war with iran. there is a national consensus about the core political issues in the us-tr relationship

a deal can still be reached on the edges about things like the american pastor and the turkish banker who's in prison for evading iran sanctions, but america does not want turkey to be sovereign it will not win the support of anti-erdogan turks

>>10662944
Presidents will always eat the blame. See obama etc. Trump didn't exactly stop it either

>>10662287

>cockroaches nuking cockroaches

im cumming daddy

>>10662973
>I'm praying for the refugees. Hope they can make a better life for themselves here in Europe. Fuck borders.
Well prayer is helpful maybe but as regards borders, you need them, or you just end up with everywhere being Rwanda/eitheopia etc. You need borders around advanced civilised countries because they are the only hope for the species because they develop new technologies and generate disproportionate amounts of food to feed everyone else. Remove the borders and all you have is those beacons going out rapidly followed by famine. Please think about what I am saying, This is not some /pol rant based on skin colour. Its a hard reality. The best hope these immigrats have is to improve their own nations which are often resource rich and capable of being agriculturally productive, a million or ten million or twenty million of the most ambitious heading to Europe, destroys Europe because they don't have the education to compete in the workplace and destroys the nations they left Avoiding knuckledragging pol racism, your extreme of fucking borders is equally daft and of famine, war and plague, the EU has already had its share.

>>10662705

WHAT DID HE MEAN BY THIS?

What does this mean for the Bannerlord devs? That's all I care about.

>>10663086
Delayed

Also, what will bitcoin do in a financial crash like 2008?

>>10663086
Nevr ever :)

>>10662958
cringe and bluepilled

>>10663162
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>10663126
That's the billion dollar question. Depends on how many whales still have the liquidity to manipulate it.

Are there any Turkish crypto exchanges? If BTC doesn't surge while national capital controls are instituted, why should it ever surge

>>10663018
>wake up
you wake up
The Turkish economy could vanish wholesale and the EU would barely notice, they can bail out EU banks on any Turkish collapse quietly if they need, or even for novelty sake let a few go to the wall. The EU nor the Euro will collapse. Neither will the dollar as reards DB, it is not what it was, its books have been shrnk and it could be split up and it would not batter (good bank/bad bank model) stop reading zero hedge before you get doomeritis which effects judgement
>>10663018
>investors would have to turn to Russia for optimism
O no. Please. Russia is fucked, not by sanctions but by its management. Its going no where fast. The sanctions that have been applied are if anything moderate given that Putin decided hitlers foreign policy was so great he copied it. Russia has a minor economy o the scale of south korea. Its not a player like the USA EU or China and never will be. Putin and the oligarchs made sure no serious foreign investment in Russia will happen ever because they stole all the money that was invested into Russia by foreigners. If I had to choose between Russia and South Korea, I'd invest in something like Samsung not lada or something Russian that makes b grade tanks and fighters for tin pot dictators

>>10663126
>Also, what will bitcoin do in a financial crash like 2008?
crash

ROACHES SPRAYED

>>10663086
It's right here anon, hurry Calradia is waiting

>>10661095
Yes they are great "gatekeepers" by letting more immigrants into EU

The BTC pump this month is gonna be crazy.

So all of this is happening because Turkey won't release an American Pastor?

>>10663347
They are chimping out much more than that. Not touching interest rates. Clownery. etc. No trust.

>>10663347
Among various other things

Musk in LA tonight. Joe Rogan Podcast or spaceX work?

>>10663313
you wish

>>10663231
the eu will just let them drown....

>>10663381
I have 0 in BTC and won't go in BTC even though I think it pumps. Just pure objective analysis based on what will happen this month.

>>10663347
It's been battered in the market even before Trump turned the screws. Erdogan getting re-elected, gaining new powers, and signaling he'll be more involved in economic policy was taken as bad news. Then he appointed his brother-in-law to the finance minister post.

I think this is also a geopolitical play on Trump's part to get Turkey out of Syria as Assad continues making gains. Turkey pays their fighters in Lira, which is suddenly making their expedition more expensive.

>>10663203
.. to bits.
X50 leverage

>>10663347
The additional tariffs certainly don't help but they have been shitting the bed for a while, they were already reeling and now Trump went in for a targeted kick to the nuts. Normal behavior would have been to raise the interest rates in order to stop the inflation, but that would slow down economic growth and that's all Erdogan seems to care about, he has no clue about currency policy and thinks high interest rates are some kind of Jewish/Western conspiracy trying to hurt his neo-ottoman empire.

Who here just wants to see the world burn?

Stock-only person here. You BTC zoomers need to stock up on BTC for the pump. Instability in currency in Turkey will help BTC a lot.

>>10663448

The people posting otherwise are either being ironic or obtuse

>>10663448
50k eoy
Thanks roaches

>>10663057
There isn't anything special about "civilized" nation, they are in that position due to exploitation in large part due to exploitation of third world nations, and also due to chance. Go back a few centuries and some of the nations the refugees were coming from were the peak of civilization. Yes, the influx of refugees is challenging, but that's why we need to be inclusive and provide training and opportunities for those people, not divide people based on race and inflame tensions for no reason. Most people just want a good life for themselves and their children, we're really not very different, it's just that the system we currently have seeks to divide people to draw attention away from its own corruption. There is no reason why they can't contribute to Europe, and even make it stronger. Your assertion that they will destroy Europe is frankly rooted in racist ideology, even if you claim not to be racist.

Yes, ideally those people wouldn't need to leave and they could stay and build their own countries. But the reality is those people DO need to flee, partly thanks to Western interference. It is not helping those people by forcing them to live under dire conditions, rather than letting them into Europe and providing them with basic human needs.

Europe has had its fair share of war thanks to divisive politics, which is exactly the opposite of what I'm advocating.

>>10660814
https://evolve.markets/r/03dfdee5

Buy EDZ and watch the t*rks burn down their dried-fig 'economy'

>>10663486
Wow you really don't have to put so much effort into your larp. I'll give you a 4/10

>>10663448
Why wouldn't people around the world want to cash out their crypto because they need money?

>>10663530
currency crisis. If you are in turkey/china you want BTC.

>>10663486
The Islamic ideology they bring with them can very well be interpreted as a deeply political fascist system, and many of those who oppose this migration feel that it could threaten the fundamental liberal democratic order.

It's not their fault for being born into this ideology, and it's not in their "race", but history shows that a growing Islamic population tends to assert dominance at some point, leading to significant conflict or a takeover of some sort.

It's like asking whether we should import millions of national socialist party members in the 1930s. Sure, most of them are normal people like you and me, but there are certain objective risks in doing so.

>>10660760
This might be the lucky break that the world needs to disconnect from the dollar

Back below 7.00000 crises averted :^)

>>10661944
f-35s are shit lol

>>10662010
>2010
>The year the Arab Spring began

It's happening.

>>10663589
and they say only Bitcoin is manipulated

>>10663644
Erdogan is searching his couches for money

>>10663589
Why do I get the feeling it will be over 8 in about two or three hours?

>>10663589
:^) you forgot

It's based on erdogan's plan to fix it coming out later.

>I call on everyone in Turkey to jump on the count of 3 to send a tidal wave into Israel

>>10663704
Because that is usually what happens. We will witness it with our own eyes.

>>10663385
Yeah sure =)

>>10662549
ya its not 1950 anymore
cameras, microphones everywhere
all emails read, every story told
can't get away with something like that anymore

target?

>>10660849
>see Russia, China, Turkey and Iran forming a new
Turkey already stepped on Russia with Assad scenario. And Russia and China once tried to make an alliance and it didnt work.

>>10661872
At this point Spain is the in avg biz user always getting justED

>>10664194

Funny gif but I disagree. Ultimately this bearish for EUR. Maybe I just made a wooosh.

>>10662100
>>10662111
He will attack Syria. Closest one and Turkey has already dipped toes into Syria on numerous occasions.

>>10662283
Do bitcoin and then unironically do like 10-20% tether to use for funds if need be. But expect the possibility of governments locking down banks and enforcing capital controls like in Cyprus. Gold can always be confiscated bitcoin cant.

>>10662705

Guys with an FX account, don't go long USDTRY. The swaps are limited which means no more big positions will be added tonight.

Turkey should never have been allowed in NATO

>>10664380
NATO gained a lot from having Turkey as a member, even if the Turkey and its government doesn't deserve it.

That'll show Drumbfph!!!

>>10664348

To follow up my first statement, read this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-12/capital-controls-next-lira-rebounds-after-turkey-bank-regulator-limits-fx-swap

>
Separately, in another troubling development, Bloomberg cites an Asia-based FX trader who said that as TRY vol soars "some clients are choosing to watch their own orders rather than leave it with a bank, adding to widening pressure on price spreads." The trader also said that banks are "preferring clients declare their side on deals rather than ask for two-way prices."

What this means is that your average ECN broker is going to be massively susceptible to a short squeeze till normal liquidity conditions are restored.

>>10660760
SistemKoin getting good volume, lira going to crypto

>>10664443
XZC was last listed there HEXX will follow tomorrow.. buy nao

What went wrong?

>they bought?
>dump it

>>10660760

The CIA/US State Department are engineering Erdogan's removal from power. He's become too much of an obstacle and authoritarian, these economic tools are being used as weapons against him.

>>10664491
Erdogan

>I HURT MYSELF TODAY

>>10664491
Kemal was wrong in that sense. Had he not been so hostile he could have prevented instability inTurkey. Plus his anti religious attitude was that of a bourgeoisie career man. He should know the average peasant of Turkey believed in God and considered it important. Kemal empowered the clerics when he attacked them.

>>10664551
Poor Turks. Outside Istanbul they’re some of the generous people I’ve ever met, and hard workers too.

Many of them (Erdogan supporters) deserve this, but about 50% don’t.

>>10663193

>they can bail out EU banks on any Turkish collapse quietly if they need, or even for novelty sake let a few go to the wall. The EU nor the Euro will collapse. Neither will the dollar as reards DB, it is not what it was, its books have been shrnk and it could be split up and it would not batter (good bank/bad bank model) stop reading zero hedge before you get doomeritis which effects judgement

I'm not even a happeningfag but it's plainly obvious that the Eurozone has major structural problems (ffs there is a serious entity called the "European Stability Mechanism") that still are not addressed (say through Eurobonds which Macron stupidly allows Merkel to stall). The more time that goes on the higher and higher chance of some small thing being able to choke the system and cascade it into a crisis. DB failing a stress test is a big deal and a huge red flag that the system is not capable of weathering another hit, even if it's something comparatively small like a Turkish economic collapse.

If not Turkey then it'll be Greece, Spain or Italy again. Or maybe a huge strike in France. It's impossible to know exactly what except that it is inevitable.

>O no. Please. Russia is fucked, not by sanctions but by its management. Its going no where fast.

Exactly. Without any corners to turn to investors look to pull their money out to sit on it, causing prices to fall and facilitating a stock crash.

>>10664621
>DB failing a stress test is a big deal and a huge red flag that the system is not capable of weathering another hit
I agree with you. The entire eurozone has financial problems in addition to cultural problems. I'm not sure though Turkey is large enough to kick the leg out of DB but we will see just how bad it gets.

>>10664491
Guy was a retarded euro wannabe liberal atheist

>>10664659

DB is in a unique situation with the SIFI status and the shear amount of derivative liability on the books. There is certainly a line in the sand (not share price but balance sheet) where regulators stage the intervention. The way EU politics are going it may actually work to the German's favor in a strange way in providing a unifying crisis which can foster some member cohesion.

>>10664567
I think he didn’t go far enough. Religion poisons everything in politics; in every country exploiting religion is consistently the best gateway for authoritarians and populists.

Turkey’s original constitution should have been more explicit at separating church and state.

>>10664491

Mohameddans and sub-90 IQs.

>>10660760
How do we invest?

>>10664701
DB success and with it Germany success is the only thing holding the eurozone and migrant crisis at bay. Germans living comfortably makes them turn a blind guy to problems and keep things moving as they were. Once germans are losing money expect big changes across eurozone.
>>10664703
Religion has always been a part of every nation. Europe and the middle east both had great success with religion forging massive empires with religious zeal. Kemal wanted to ignore turkeys long religious history as the seat of the caliph and try to pretend Turks were parisians liberal modernists. They weren't then and they aren't now. Turks are Turks and kemal shouldn't have tried to govern them as if they were frenchmen as he wished he was.

Short TUR etf

Nominal minimum wage was equal to $545 in January. With current exchange rates it is equal to $295. It is possible for Turkey to become Moldavia or Ukraine-tier just in few weeks.

https://countryeconomy.com/national-minimum-wage/turkey

Oh fuck it's back up to 6.9 and climbing. Are we about to see some snb peg removal style disaster?

>>10664769

I actually don't see it that way. I see it as a humbling scenario, what people in the U.S. would call a "come to Jesus" moment. Germans will make social concessions for greater financial system stability. Merkel's coalition will go into survival mode.

>>10661095
>Immigrant surge leads to EU populist support surging
>Turkroach bailout leads to EU populist support surging

How do I long AfD?

JUST
U
S
T
will this trigger global correction? Turkey=>EU banks=>global markets.

>>10664854
buy zyklon B ETF

>>10660760
So predictions, where does it close tomorrow? Trips decide.

>>10664769

The only change that matters would be Eurobonds. Such a thing would be sufficient in allaying concerns about the Eurozone's financial stability and overall increase confidence that all 28 members will be capable of sustaining it. A shared debt load means that the problem areas all get defacto bailed out by the rich areas, creating a situation where investor loss is mitigated as bondholders get paid while states still engage in economic investments to keep stockholders happy.

Anything else is just a distraction. Germany could impose whatever austerity measures it wants, it would help bondholders in the near term but fuck up stock holders who would see EU area government contracts dry up and tank their profits. But even then bondholders still get screwed because during this process anti-Euro populism occurs, it's already spread to Italy (and is only being kept at bay due to a migrant deal/compromise made in the very last minute). Which again brings us to Erdogan, who isn't in the EU but is right outside the gates. Having a prospective EU member like Turkey fall when Brexit is already happening does not increase confidence.

>>10664854

Prediction markets? I made returns betting on Trump.

>>10664855

A global correction would occur due to a mix of factors. You're going to have to wait at least three months to see the results, especially as everyone awaits the EU's response to all this. This plus Brexit and potential Nord Steam 2 sanctions against Germany (and plausibly Trump/Ukraine moving to disrupt Russian gas exports to the EU) would do it, but that's either going to happen later this year or next year.

>>10664892

No happening since the ecb will manipulate the market in favor of turkey

If there is a bailout in turkey, there will be a bailout in spain too...european banks lent around 200 billion euros

>>10664951

If the ECB manipulates the market, Trump will call them out on it for violating their recent trade concession agreement and enact sanctions against the EU for helping Turkey. This will happen just as Trump would be suggesting the same thing over Russian gas imports.

They can't make that move without damaging their economy, or at least Germany's. Trump won't negotiate.

>>10664951
>>10664987

I was talking about Political Prop Betting Markets like Predictit (the one I used to get 5:1 payout on Trump).

>>10663185
Seconding this question.

>>10663558
I'll happily sell them mine. My back is breaking from the weight of my bags.

>>10665043
need more squats and dl

>>10664395
those dollar bills look fake

>>10663185
>>10665018
Sistemkoin

>>10665054
ofc they are, they only wished they had actual dollars

>>10660760
>FX trader = cryptocoin trader = cucked

BANK run IS oN.....STACK OR PERISH.

No one is buying any crops from the meme farm anymore.

>>10662289
Sanctions will come regardless of who they attack, Greece, Syria, or Egypt. If they do attack Greece the outcome would be worse because they would drag US into the fight because of NATO.

I don't understand how they would attack Egypt. It's more likely they'll attack someone to the east of them like Armenia or Georgia.

7.1 lads, will it happen tonight?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-07/goldman-warns-turkish-banks-will-be-wiped-out-if-lira-hits-71

>>10664869
8.12 EOD

>>10665067
kek

>>10665072
If they attack Greece, the outcome would be great for everyone.

We annex the Bosporous, hand it over to the Greeks, Erdogan gets to remain king of the Anatolian hinterlands, everyone leaves happy.

>>10664403

>Banks are asking clients state their side

So you can front-run me? No thanks.

>>10665072

Make a deal with Russia and attack Georgia?

>>10661892
I hope Russia wont be that stupid

>>10660760
Erdogan has the Sultan Complex, just like many politicians in the Balkans – he has a total stranglehold over the entire country, including the economy and the political process. Anyone who doesn't pledge absolute obedience to Erdogan gets starved of money and any influence, so they flee to Germany, Sweden etc. Note how it's the 2nd generation immigrants who commit terror attacks since they get romantic ideas of the homeland being oppressed by powerful economies.

>>10665423
What i can't understand is that he got voted extra power recently and that so many Turks fall for it.

>>10665441
It's an islamic country. Miracle it hasn't descended to absolute shit so far.

>>10665441
>pseudo dictatorship
>I can't understand how the beloved leader got voted more power

Support above 7. We did it reddit.

>won't release a priest
>claim they have Allah
>get rekt
What did allah mean by this?

>>10665441
Think of the most stupid Trump supporter you've seen, that's about half of the population here.

Also Erdogan owns/controls all mainstream media, which creates an echo chamber where they actually believe the whole world is jealous of them, they can't stand how Erdogan freed the country from its shackles and these international enemies will bring them down the first chance they get. It's a textbook totalitarian regime, and Erdogan won't leave the office unless he dies or loses an inevitable civil war in the future.

>>10661854
Amen to that. The parliament sits in Strassbourg (on the Franco-German border).

>yfw this was true all along
https://youtu.be/i4qpT_ow3sc

>>10665441
it's because most turks have a very low IQ

Where were you when emerging markets started to get obliterated?

>>10662221
Turkey doesn't even share a border with Israel, and Turkey would get BTFOd by the Israelis. Even if Israel was somehow losing the US would intervene on behalf of Israel. Russia might as well, they've been wanting constantinople back for some time.

>>10660760
>lights the next global financial meltdown
pls no, im still recovering from the last financial meltdown.

>>10662891
>tfw finally in position to buy the dip

what does this mean for Europe?

>>10666188
more brownskin economic migrant 20somethings pretend to be war fleeing 10something children

>>10662763
roaches are that bad huh. Guess ill cross them off my possible retirement destinations.

>>10663530
Turkish money is becoming toilet paper. You want to be as out of money as you can get. Get BTC or stocks or something.

>>10663231
You know, Europe can just move forces to the border to stop the inflow. Europe is choosing the pass on the moral issue of refugees to Turkey, rather than deal with the shame of turning people away themselves.

looks like Siener van Rensburg was right again.

>>10661760
where do you short? broker etc?
i wish there was something retard-ez like robinhood for forex for my phonea; i travel too much

OP here, I drank two bottles of wine and passed out, what did I miss? It's midnight here in Chicago

>>10667429
Oh fuck
>In the first tentative step toward the final option available for Erdogan to halt the Lira's accelerating collapse - which crashed as low as 7.2362 earlier after the Wellington FX open following the the Turkish president's latest belligerent comments - namely capital controls, the Turkish Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency imposed a limit on the amount of foreign currency and lira swap and swap-like transactions, which are not to exceed 50% of the bank's shareholder equity.