/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18465561
what's an inventory

>>18465561
Mnuchin finally got his wish and put the the dollar uber alles is real.
Now the entire world is in a deflationary spiral every currency and world economy is collapsing and all the gdp is fleeing to the us dollar , which now will cause a total economic collapse due to the deflation this will create.

The levels of brrrr needed to prevent this will be venezuela style and will have venezuela effects in the burger economy.

But hey at least Trumpfags can masturbate at aircraft carriers and a strong usd.

>>18465622

Dis gud for bitcorn

>>18465561

How long until US storage is at capacity?

>>18465851
Probably another month, imo. No clue tho

>>18465622
Red pill me on this.

>>18465851
>>18465882
Stop being pussies and just start burning it. Problem solved

>>18465652
It unironically is ,however it will only go up a little until the deflationary effects disappear.

>>18465898
The world was starved of usd by the trade war, sanctions and delayed investments due to the trade war.

So everyone is fleeing to the usd while the world economy collapses as a result the usa grew a little but now everyone buying usds is causing deflation in the usa and the entire world.

As a result the us economy is going to be rekt , trumpbux and fed qe is literally duplicating the usd monetary base and there is still deflation kek.

They fucked up so hard they still have not realized what they have done because the us leadership never realized their position after the cold war.

They will do more brrrrrr and the deflation will still be there because they fucked up hard and destroyed the system.
The only way they can get out of this is doing so much brrrrrrr that burgers fight at walmart for potatoes scaring everyone in the world to flee the usd and invest their wealth.

It's a colossal shitstorm worse than 1929 probably since now everyone has a single global currency to escape.

>>18465622
Great depression tier deflation for 10 years. Good long term though

>>18465999
Bad debts and companies will fail. Prices will go down in 10-30 years we will be booming again. Good time to buy. USD wont collapse unless you can give me a reason it will

>>18466018
Deflation for 2020 and systemic inflationary collapse in 2021.

All the jobs created since 2008 in burgerland have been lost , and western european nations gdp will be also at 2008 levels in 2021.

And multiple currencies will start to collapse late this year as they will start the brrrrrr wave in an already a high inflation level.

At least burgerland is brrrr with deflation so they will get the inflationary collapse in 2021-2022

>>18465576
It's when oil is in a warehouse instead of in the ground. If it's in the ground, even if it can be pumped at any time, everyone pretends it doesn't exist. But if it get pumped from the ground into storage tanks then the oil industry has to explain to the governments why exactly it is they are overcharging for their oil despite them having oversupplies of the stuff.

>>18466048
>USD wont collapse unless you can give me a reason it will

Civil unrest in all the shithole countries around the world that are tired of the US causing a recession every ten years, so they decide to dump the dollar. All those billions the Fed printed that are currently sitting in fucky financial instruments and stonks will flood the streets as investors try to buy any tangible goods that they can. Hyperinflation, commies trying to kill any rich asshole sitting on a pile of money, etc.

>>18465999
You’re not wrong, but most of the demand from dollars is coming from the shadow banking sector.

So private banks, maybe JPM, will lend money to overseas banks. In turn, these banks lend out to smaller, regional banks. After that, they’re lent out to the local populations to build businesses— think third world & second world.

Problem is, when Rasheesh can’t pay back the loan he took for his ice cream stand, and that cascades into a local bank collapsing, well... let’s just say the banks above them are levered to the hilt and can’t pay back shit in dollars

Disclaimer: I’m not super knowledgeable on this, I’m just rehashing some shit I’ve heard. See jefferey snider (appears on Macro Voices) if you want the real McCoy

>>18466048
>Good time to buy. USD wont collapse unless you can give me a reason it will

Deflation will crash the us economy because that exact reason.
The usd is so strong that the entire world will be buying usd instead of investing which will cause a deflationary collapse of the us economy.

This will cause such high unemployment level the us will literally see a civil war if not multiple.

People seem to forget that during the 2008 "crisis" the us had what?12% unemployment at the top.
Meanwhile multiple eu countries had almost 30%.

The us was extremly volatile with 12% unemployment , with shit like occupy wall street and crazies all over the place.

Now it's worse , socialist will take the dems in due time due to demographics , and the unemployment will be probably above 25% (it's growing at 1% per month at this rate while in 2008 it was 0.5% per month unemployment growth in a bad month).

Add that deflationary effect i pointed , plus delayed investments due to the trade war and the usa is going to look like the purgue movie in a year and half at this rate.

>>18466080

It's not that they're overcharging. They're trying to break even. Shit's expensive in the US compared to other parts of the world. It's hard for US oil companies to compete with Saudi slave labor. When oil is $65 we do alright and the Kingdom of Saud gets hypercars and gold-trimmed pools. When oil is $20 American workers get furloughed and Rangish from Sri Lanka currently in the Ghawar Oil Fields works a double.

>>18466188
>Now it's worse , socialist will take the dems in due time due to demographics

They already have. I expect moderate Dems to be targeted for violence as heavily as Republicans in the coming unrest.

>>18466189
Well everyone else is overcharging. Fracking was half a meme from the start.

>>18465622
Can you explain the deflationary spiral, milkshake theory and specifically why the USD dependent nations will flee to the USD?

>>18466078

It is the single greatest transfer of wealth from the world to the US, of all time. As if a great vacuum were sucking up every single useful thing and depositing them on American shores. I don't think you understand the outcomes here.

>>18466188
>The us was extremly volatile with 12% unemployment , with shit like occupy wall street and crazies all over the place.

You call that "volatile"? A movement that was quickly black-listed and had more than half the population against it AND ate itself from the inside out? Honestly, the state of "uprising" /pol/tards...you're watching all of America bend over and spread it for the local government without question, blindly, whatever they ask, and you expect anyone with half a brain to think people are going to riot?

>>18466177
No dude you are right about the paying back due to the deflationary effect.

But this is a total collapse i am here in Argentina where the fiat system was already collapsing but it's accelerating hard and fast.

The last 72 hours bitcoin went from 8k here to 12k.
People and companies are literally buying bitcoin to flee to the usd i am seeing even on fuckng leddit normies talking about buying dai or bitcoin.

The escape to the usd is happening fast as fuck in the entire world even europe.
This goes way above banks the entire production of the world is fucked up due to the deflationary effect this will cause.

The entire world is fucked for real.

>>18466250
>specifically why the USD dependent nations will flee to the USD?

They have nowhere else to turn to. The USD is a safe asset so when times are rough, people cash out into USD. People want MORE dollars and LESS assets. Asset prices go down while the dollar goes up in even value.

The fed isn't printing money to cause inflation, they are printing money to meet demand for the dollar.

low prices bad
not profitable to rape earth with fracking
fucking burgers

>>18466292
>You call that "volatile"?

Yes, it was volatile. This next movement may actually resort to violence. Expect politicians and business leaders to be targeted. A lot of people have guns and soon enough they'll have nothing else to lose.

>>18466318
I see, cheers. Do you have any forex signals?

>>18466223
The entire world is going to experience massive unrest we are talking about something worse than 1929.

>>18466250
If a nation like argentina wants to trade with china usd are needed in the middle for payment because the usd is the world reserve currency.

But the trade war , sanctions , trump tarrifs, delayed investments due to the trade war and other factors starved the world of usds.

So no one invested shit and when you don't invest you just protect your wealth , what do you do?
Buy a overvalued market pumped by trump on twitter?
Buy bonds with negative returns?

People all over the world simply are buying usd and not investment but this is removing usd of circulation on the us economy and causing deflation in the internal us economy (plus outsources jobs).

>>18466285
It's not going to american shores, it's going to the usd which causes deflation in the us economy , which means everything will be outsourced from the usa due to imports being cheaper due to a overvalued dollar.

At this rate if this does not change i would not be suprised if in four years even your cop jobs are outsourced with mexican seasonal police jobs.

Of course that won't happen because the unrest would be so big that in two years everything would go to hell.

>>18466292
There was a massive growth of leftist ideology worldwide from 2009 to 2015 due to the 2008 shock.
The entire sjw movement gained momentum in only two years with 12% us unemployment.

>>18465622

Are you retarded?
Trump is desperate to open the economy up and end the lockdowns. H's not the one who is getting in the way of that, ts the media and his opposition who need us to have this vuvuzela style meltdown so that the democrats can get elected.

>>18466399
I don't mess with that shit. Stocks, cash, and PMs only for me.

>>18466400
>There was a massive growth of leftist ideology worldwide from 2009 to 2015 due to the 2008 shock.
The entire sjw movement gained momentum in only two years with 12% us unemployment

See how well that leftist ideology land out when you have splintered group fighting for power like, Mexicans, Muslims, Africans etc. Europeans will hopefully turn back to fascism

>>18466441
If all the currencies are fleeing to use it could make some opportunities no?

>>18466475
If you know what you're doing then sure, but I don't so I don't fuck with it. Forex trading requires too much effort and research for me.

So where is Oil going these days?

>>18466433
it's not the lockdown the deflationary collapse was already happening, which is why japan reported -6% gdp growth before even having a corona case.

Corona was just a trigger to make it way way worse.
Trump actually may have reduced the effects by not going full lockdown, european and latin american welfare states will suffer a inflationary collapse sooner due to the lockdown.

However trump & mnuchin and others have responsability in creating the deflationary effect slowly but constantly.

Trade war , sanctions , attack against alternatives like bitcoin, tarrifs , delayed investments all due to the trump administration economic mercantilism.

You can say they were necessary due to the usa being constantly fucked by trade deals and you would be right in my view.

But the reason they are fucked in the first place is not the deals themselves but the usd being the reserve currency causing negative trade balances since the end of bretton woods.

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Burgerland had to choose between reserve currency or economic nationalism.

Instead the trump administration choose both which is a retarded point of view because if you are economic nationalist you don't want to import thus you starve the world of that reserve currency.

Now you see the effects of that contradiction and soon the usa will have 30% unemployment if something is not done.

Those of us outside the usa are even more fucked because we will see inflationary collapse sooner.

If anything that shows how retarded the system is now , burgers deflationary collapse due to everyone buying usd and outside inflationary due to everyone escaping the usd.

Clown world

>>18466400
Deflation is already priced in. 30 year T-Bill futures dropped from a high of 190k to 178k or so. That means inflation, they see the writing on the wall and are dumping US treasuries.

>>18466400
>>18466392
Also wrong. It wasn't volatile. It was seen as a bunch of jobless children parading around like toddlers throwing a tantrum. That's how it was portrayed, and that's what the majority of Americans agreed it was. A nuisance. Even if they agreed with the reasoning, the law-breaking and "disrespect" was too much and it wasn't even violent. Occupy meant well but means nothing now.

"May" resort to violence? Guess again. This isn't going to be Waco 2.0, it's going to continue to be everyone spreading their ass wide open and the leftists are absolutely first. Where are leftists with guns who are ready to do violence? No where. They're the epitome of keyboard warrior. What leftist do you know is breaking shelter-in-place? Now that the government is acting like literal Hilter, they do nothing because it's "for the good". All leftist ideology turned into is fat fucks with pink hair congratulating themselves for staying home, hating trump, and being against whatever 1000 grit grain lets them be vocal on social and then a meek pussy you could blow on and watch them fall over in public. They are complete pussies and so are republicans.

Americans are far, far too comfortable to be out in the streets assassinating. As soon as the poorest, most corrupt neighborhoods start to get violent, the left and right alike will cheer as the pigs shoot them down.

Were you even an adult when Occupy happened, or do you just believe every fan-fiction you read on /pol/?

>>18466598
People without future or hope will do anything, 2008 was a meme compared to this.

This is 1929 tier , maybe worse and that endeed up with fascism going on steroids , ww2 , genocide you know the world going to shit.

The problem won't be universal organized chimpouts , the problem will be lone wolves without hope going to kill people , and not just the usa , the entire world will chimp out soon as trade collapses due to the deflation.

>As soon as the poorest, most corrupt neighborhoods start to get violent, the left and right alike will cheer as the pigs shoot them down.

Not when everyone is poor.

>>18466188
>the unemployment will be probably above 25%
it's already officially above 25% in multiple states in the US as of last week

>>18466772
>it's already officially above 25% in multiple states in the US as of last week

Source?

>>18466673
>>18466926
78% of US adults live paycheck to paycheck. My state is already over 30% unemployment and everyone in my local neighborhood is upset 10 guys wanted to play touch football on Easter and called the cops. Everyone is already poor and complacent just how they wanted. Leftists applauded and felated the recent gun ban in Virginia. The revolution has been silenced one leftist at a time.

Good luck with your bloodlust though.

Can they use all that oil to mine Bitcoin?

>>18466295
bro argentina is barely a country lmao i hear sob stories like this all the time USD CUMMIES nothings going to happen its gona be fine buttercup

>>18465622
>>18466078
>>18466188
>>18466295
>>18466400
>>18466583
>>18466673
>>18466926

You keep repeating "deflation", "deflation", "deflation", but I don't think you actually understand the concept.
Making it simply, deflation is negative inflation. The US is not in a deflationary process. There's disinflation, which is different from it. Deflation won't ever arrive, because of 3 reasons: 1. Plummeting GDP, 2. Corona fighting tactics (which cost money) 3. War. Yep, there will be war.
Also you refer to foreign currencies fleeing to the USD and fleeing the USD, Ramón, learn your english properly, those are two different things.

Now, the deflationary spiral won't ever ocurr. Believe me, as soon as the lock down is finished, markets will accelerate the economy like you haven't ever seen it. Inflation will fuck everyone once full money acceleration is achieved.

>>18467527
I thought deflation was when asset values go down faster than inflation was going up, but doesn't have to be a strictly financial phenomenon, for example, if everyone goes to sell their car at the same time and the price of cars goes down.

>>18467576
>I thought deflation was when asset values go down faster than inflation was going up

That's disinflation, dude. Which, in turn, can cause deflation as such.
Deflation is not a problem, per se, like inflation is. We got into deflation territory back in 2015 and they solved it by lowering interest rates.
We could hit deflation if the lockdown continues for another 3 months (not probable, infection will recede in june) and if the oil wars continue (Arabs and putin already hit a deal). Economy will reactive in a couple of month. When those brrrrrd trumpbux hit the market and start to accelerate, that's when people will bleed trough their eye sockets. US will be venezuela 2

>>18465561

char warned you.

https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/Documents/Reports/RP-1920-033-S/RP-1920-033-S_en.pdf

>>18467738
>Deflation is not a problem, per se, like inflation is

Well sure, but it comes first. Lower prices because everyone is hurting to make a sale in an economy where everyone has stopped their frivolous spending out of necessity.

>>18467921
>but it comes first
Sure. But it's relatively easy to deal with it. Lower the interest rates and/or give tax cuts and/or expand monetary policy. The government can invest in engineering projects or other stuff. Inflation, on the other hand...

>>18468025
>Sure. But it's relatively easy to deal with it. Lower the interest rates and/or give tax cuts and/or expand monetary policy.

Not if people aren't buying shit because they're literally unemployed. They've already used monetary policy and reduced interest rates to 0%. We're going to continue printing money because that's all we have left. When the developing countries of the world and other third world shitholes experience massive civil unrest and finally tell the US to fuck off with our funny money, and when all the hedge funds we bailed out decide to purchase tangible assets rather than speculative financial instruments, then we'll experience hyperinflation.

>>18467527
What will cause the war then?

>>18468377
Nothing. wars dont happen they are called police actions.

>>18465561
I just sold all my oil today. I made $10
$9.80 after taxes

>>18468377
the need for more control

>>18466400
Should I leave major US cities? I have a young son.

>>18468988
Honest to god i don't know what will happen long term , but it's so tied to politics it's scary , we entered crazy land.

If i lived in burgerland i would be seriously considering buying good land to at least becoming food independent 2 acres are enough to live independently.

The problem i see is that if this keeps getting worse we will see serious unemployment and violence all around the world , maybe once again fascist/comunist insanity spawning all over the place.
This will get worse as inflation returns and evaporates bomer pensions and politics become a gibs battleground destroying currencies all over the world.

>>18468377
It's going to be war with Venezuela. Maybe another Latin American country. Not civil war.

>>18469093
>violence around the world.
Neh. I'm mean it's going to be violence on the same levels as the yellow vests in Paris. Nothing major. You can't wage war against a country with your stomach empty. But yeah, there's going to be a hard turn towards communism for sure

>>18466080
then they get nationalized
then they run it into the ground
then venezuela 2.0 happens

>>18465622
The global economy is like the Titanic. She’s sinking. And everyone is now rushing for the lifeboats. These lifeboats are stacks of dollars. Once everyone is in their lifeboats and far away from the sinking ship..the drones will show up and bomb every lifeboat into oblivion. Total destruction. Pure chaos. Pure evil. Hell is only a word, but the reality is much, much worse.

>>18466400
>People all over the world simply are buying usd and not investment but this is removing usd of circulation on the us economy and causing deflation in the internal us economy
you don't think the printing is virtually instantaneous? wat

>>18469093
I live in burgerland and I own little over 1 acre in a suburb. I'm already self reliant but I'm thinking what's the point of being here if it's gonna become a warzone or facist shithole. I'm debating on selling everything here and being a nomad for a while until I have more clear image of what's gonna happen.

>>18471345
I would say that for the majority of the things that would lead to the situations you listed, there are clear warnings for either of those possibilities, where you would be able to sell everything. You can easily think of cases where this would not be the case, like nuclear strike and retaliation or unilateral next day coup or vote into facism. Those cases are not likely, but I can easily see why you want to at this point and leave the country. Honestly envy your position if you are able to do that, I'm too tied to having a good job at my location where I can't afford to buy property outright in the city I work in.

>>18471440
Yes, I am in a better situation than most but I payed for it with over a decade of my life at a high stress engineering job. I actually own my house outright but I regret it now since I have so much of my net worth tied into a non liquid asset. If SHTF, I can easily move to Japan where I have a citizenship or anywhere that will give out permanent residency to engineers (which is like anywhere) but I will be doing so at a huge loss.

>>18465917
I'm so happy that the spirit of Saddam lives on.

>>18465999
haha does that mean that money printer will go brrrrr?

>>18471440

Look noob, nobody is going to be buying anything when there's "clear warnings" that the nearby city is going to devolve into a warzone or fascist shithole. He's talking about selling everything and going into cash.

>>18471345

Look dude, only you can make that decision. You can go "all in" that everything will be fine. That would look like just staying where you're at and maybe playing investments safely. Having no debt, having some savings, maybe a little food and water or a gun and hardening your home to a burglary in case crime goes up a bit.

Or you can go all in on society breaking. That would look like liquidating all your assets, selling your home and land, and moving out into the middle of fucking nowhere, preferably a couple hundred miles from any major city so you can avoid the caravan of depressed souls fleeing the hellscape of the cities for safer places, and probably killing you and/or stealing all your shit out of desperation.

Or you can hedge your bets, stay where you're at, and maybe buy yourself a van or SUV that you can pack with some goods, food, guns and ammo, a gas siphon, and get your ass somewhere safer than your suburb.

If society were going to break down you'd see it coming over a matter of weeks, but preparing for it would be difficult at the last minute and would be something that you would need to be doing before the clear warning signs are there. If everyone else knows shit is getting bad then it's just too late.

>>18465999
So should I invest in stocks or no? Getting really mad that I didn't pull the trigger on several stocks I wanted that are now 33% to 50% higher than when I intially was buying in small amounts. Got so mad I went hard on sell puts (not buy calls cause I can get screwed with those and walk away with nothing).

>>18471664
It really depends though, I'm not talking about clear signs via declaration of war or an election result but more or less you make your decision based upon even earlier signs that normal people wouldn't give two shits about but you would if you wanted to bail like polling and sentiment for a particular election or news cycle. But I do agree on the whole that each person has to decide for themselves where that threshold is.

>>18468428
What are you going to spend it on?

>>18471191
Nah dude, they are just going to introduce a USD-euro-yuan-yen-pound-backed global reserve currency and that will be the end of it.

>>18471739
>that normal people wouldn't give two shits about

Like 20% unemployment and climbing and the government printing money and a looming real estate crisis in the face of a wave of foreclosures which are almost assured the IMF declaring we're gonna enter the worst recession since the Great Depression? Yeah, things can suddenly get better and then you'd feel like a fool for preparing for a catastrophe that never came, but if the warning signs get any clearer then I think the odds of selling one's home and land will plummet.

I mean if anything selling one's property while it's high and then buying something else up while it's low should be the way to do things, but I know that takes a lot of time and effort and /biz/ likes to buy high, sell low.

>>18471777
I’ll probably buy a can of chew so I can numb the pain for a few more days.

>>18465561
>Oil prices are falling, this is a very bad thing
>If oil is cheap, anti-freedom countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela will suffer
>You must pay $4 a gallon or else that's a bad thing goyim
>We must all come together and come to an agreement to make the goyim pay an unreasonable price for our dinosaur juice

>>18467576

Inflation is an increase in the money supply, deflation is a decrease. I think the thread is referring to currency becoming scarce due to a slower economy and therefore prices must decrease. Normally a single dollar travels through 5 or 6 hands easily. During uncertainty, people hoard.

>>18467527
A deflationary collapse is a very real possibility. Since money supply M2 is finite and dept is trillions times larger than it there is a push to get more physical dollars to pay existing dept that is often denominated in USD. Banks create money via lending (see link). Deflation occurs when dept is either paid back or destroyed. Also since the money supply is slowing in velocity d/t many entities wanting to sit in dollars there is a push that makes the USD more desired. Hence the fed flushing these sectors with liquidity. The currency will remain strong until it collapses since at this point they need to print money to fight deflation which will lead to a devaluation of the dollar once the liquidity is no longer needed (especially since russia and china are pushing for non dollar denominated trade deals). The only Pro is it will make american labor more affordable and possibly bring manufacturing jobs back to the USA after this horrible depression.
https://www.cnbc.com/id/100497710

Theres likely gonna be a lot of political instability. Expect right and left domestic terrorism leading to further erosion of civil rights by the federal gov.

>>18471983
edit: destroyed -> defaulted upon

>>18466188
You're an idiot and so many posters in this thread it's like their not even trying

>>18467104
You should get nuked.

I bought OIL as well as some Asian shit like IQIYI and Nervos today. See you on the other side.

>>18472054
Which oil?
XOM Shell & MRO will make it through
Along with some more expensive oil stocks

>>18468025
This is a joke, right?
Deflation is much harder to fight. Rates have a lower bound

>>18472054
Today all oil is going DOWN into the bottom of the trench.

>>18471955
>Inflation is an increase in the money supply, deflation is a decrease.

Inflation is an increase in prices. Deflation is a decrease in prices. Why this happens can be a number of reasons, including the money supply. In our current situation we're probably going to experience deflation because sellers won't be able to sell shit to a bunch of unemployed people who are saving and can't spend frivolously.

>>18465561
It's great. If we weren't on lockdown, I'd be on a coast to coast road trip. It normally costs thousands of dollars in gas.

>>18465561
which ETF to buy for a euro bro?
I dont want leverage.
I dont want stowks
I just want sweet 20 USD oil.
USO seems to be diverging from the real oil price anyway.

>>18472054
Double down. Buy as much as you can under 20. Sale of a lifetime. Hold long term until you triple your shit

>>18472063
MRO, XOM, HAL, SLB, ConocoPhillips, chevron, and if you have the stomach for it maybe some matador mtdr

>>18469334
>Neh. I'm mean it's going to be violence on the same levels as the yellow vests in Paris. Nothing major. You can't wage war against a country with your stomach empty. But yeah, there's going to be a hard turn towards communism for sure

I lived in a total collapse here in Argentina in 2001 and trust me it's bad.
Everyone chimp outs to the point that politicians must do gibs to everyone without even checking at one point.

You may see state currencies appearing if things get bad as politicians establish their own local power base.

It's bad when everything goes to hell, glowies would like to think all that matters is a few crazy commie unions or leftist chimpouts but the trust is that once the economy collapse everyone becomes dangerous.

The good neighbour next door may go to loot a store tomorrow, the homeless asking money at the same place in your neighbourhood may steal your stuff if you appear scared, companies won't hire out of fear of the future.

Things go to hell real fast.

>>18471191
A better analogy would be all of the titanic entering the lifeboats only for them to sunk due to the weight.

That's what's happening to the us economy due to the entire world buying usd instead of investing.

>>18465561
This is very bullish for Kleros Sir!

This is a good opportunity, just remember to only buy if they have a good current ratio (1.0 Minimum, 2.0 and above is great) and if they already have high asset ratio because they won't be able to expand their PP&E any time soon.

I've been shouting to buy tankers and all you dopes don't fuckin listen

>>18474123
Post tanker tickers