/biz/ - Business & Finance

S&P without Amazon

>>18720862
>poor earnings for Facebook and Google

unironically bullish for BAT.

>>18720862
Sort of a watershed moment.

Bull run will definitely go on into Wednesday afternoon, but if earnings reports for Facebook, Amazon & Microsoft don't put the brakes on this rally, nothing is going to. In that case next stop is the $MOON and bears can should go long in $ROPE.

>>18720893
made a huge bet on the market collapsing then the fed announced they were buying junk bonds and I got fucked. My only chance is FAANG failing to meat expectations or giving negative forward guidance.

Usually don't risk so much, but I felt sure the market would fall. Didn't count on the fed though.

>>18720862
AMZN and MSFT (Cloud, Teams) = Profit
Co.s who depend on advertising = Fucked
AMZN in particular (Retail & Cloud) to be spectacular

>>18721026
>AMZN in particular (Retail & Cloud) to be spectacular
Cloud is a fucking meme. It only makes up a small percentage of GOOG and AMZNs revenue. I can't find the numbers for microsoft, but I doubt it's any differnt.

Just ~1.25% of GOOGs revenue last year

>>18721026
>>18721096
AMZN is about 10% cloud, but they're by far the industry leader in the space.

https://hypercharts.co/amzn

>>18721096
That's because Google cloud sucks donkey nuts. AWS and Azure to a lesser extent (AMZN and MSFT) are massive.

>>18721120
This. GOOG is an ad company like FB

>>18720862
this is the best post on /biz/ rn

I wish I had an electric beard trimmer desu

>>18720873
I don't know if its funny, or scary, but, everyone is buying Amazon stock, because they think of it as an e-commerce retailer. However, the profit margins for its ecommerce are low, and this is not really where they make their money. If their earnings report does not meet expectations, we can all expect a big after hours dump thursday night, and a lot of retail investors will be freaking out on friday morning. Amazons earnings report could be the catalyst for the next big dump.

>>18720985
The FED has turned off the printers this week. Thursday night will be make or break.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/23/fed-slashed-qe-further-still-hasnt-bought-junk-bonds-or-etfs/

>>18720985
>fuck the fed but don't bet against them

>>18721164
Their earnings are mostly from AWS, and it's losing market share.

>>18721096
>AMZN in particular (Retail & Cloud) to be spectacular

1. Google Cloud is a meme. No one uses it
2. AMZN has a huge revenue because it's a retail giant. Amazon.com probably has 5-8% profit margins. Cloud has profit margins of 70%+

What's better, 5% profit on 1,000,000,000 revenue, or 70% profit on 100,000,000

I am betting that facebooks ad revenue will be in the gutter

>>18721345
It's about the market size and what's left the capture dumbass.

Cloud is Amazon's golden goose, people are leaving as fast as their joining in my network, not sure which side is winning.

Though just 5 years ago everyone was jumping in bed with aws

>>18721292
it is not losing market share.. it releasing new product and features that make it untouchable. Fargate.

>>18721148
>data mining company like facebook

>>18721148

>GOOG is an ad company

Imagine not owning the toll booth of the internet...

>>18720862
They should have good earnings except apple, Amazon is going to rule the world, everyone will be using their cloud in the future.

>>18721120
Nobody is building anything new. Millions of developers have been told to fuck off. Their revenues are going to flatline hard.

Between NVDA/AMD/GOOGL/AMZN, who should I dump 19k into after earnings week?

>>18721345
Both are memes. Nobody trusts Amazon or Google. Microsoft is trusted for some fucking reason.

>>18721533
>Between NVDA/AMD/GOOGL/AMZN, who should I dump 19k into after earnings week?

Unironicly tesla. If tesla stock gets knocked down by a general market crash it will become an excellent buy. It's barely going to be hurt by the recession compared with every other automaker in the world.

Also tesla is fundamentally a technology company that makes batteries. These batteries are useful for more than just cars. If there's a big infrastructure bill tesla will benefit for example.

>>18721775
>Also tesla is fundamentally a technology company that makes batteries.

Imagine being so badly informed about your bags...

Panasonic manufactures and ships the batteries to Tesla, you absolute brainlet.

>>18721775
Retard

>FAANG is the only thing holding up the S&P.
lol, we're so fucked

>overpriced adsites that can't into diversification and running anything that even looks like a business model
>a fucking streaming service
>fashion accessory computing.

Amazon is the only respectable entity. Properly diversified, has proven capable of executing actual business models, has non meme level future rooted in reality.

>>18721958
>>18721886
I Know they partner with Panasonic on the batteries, but they are moving to the batteries being completely TESLA batteries.

Fundamentally TESLA is battery limited. They can move the batteries to different types of vehicles or stationary storage depending on where there is more demand. Currently there is far more demand for batteries than can be produced.

>>18722006

Why would Panasonic cede this battery capacity role to them?

>>18722006
Retard.

>>18722029
They bought Maxwell to come up with their own battery tech. Panasonic doesn't have a choice. Most analysts believe they will announce their own in house dry cell battery at battery day in may.

There is so much demand for Li batteries the raw material costs are getting expensive. Batteries are the limiting technology for sustainable renewable.

>>18722048
>>18722029
>>18721958
>>18721886
cost per kilowatt hour is the new mores law.

>>18722088
Brainlet.

>>18722097
>>18722066
>>18722048
>>18721958
>>18721886
Niggers are trolling? Or do you have an alternative hypothesis?

>>18722066
>batteries whose materials are mined, refined and shipped with gas powered planes and ships
>recharged by coal power plants
Kys zoomer

>>18721192
Slow down =/ turning off

>>18722117
>t. Retard

>>18722117
>N*ggers are trolling? Or do you have an alternative hypothesis

>>18722121
Chemistry are changing to eliminate expensive materials such as cobalt. Ships are ridiculously efficient and will be one of the last technologies to be electrified.

Energy density will be high enough in the next 20 years that new planes will be electrified.

>>18722121
Not a zoomer, but I use to work designing new chemistries for thin film technology not that different from batteries.

>>18720862

it's been this way since before the corona crash though anon

>>18722195
forgot image. This graph is about pollution, but the values are equivalent in terms of efficiency generally.

>>18722195
>>18722226
>t. larpfag

>>18721096
So GOOG is getting fucked in earnings? I doubt advertisements were paying a lot in late Feb/March.

>>18721116
What have Amazon sales been like for Q1?

>>18722346
>>So GOOG is getting fucked in earnings? I doubt advertisements were paying a lot in late Feb/March.
Maybe. My thinking is that it takes time for the economic pain to travel up the value chain. Consumer facing companies have been slashing advertising like crazy including google itself. However, I don't know if they did it in time to effect Googles Q1 earnings. Or if GOOG will give bad future projects. Bad future guidance will have more of a negative impact than earnings miss I think.

>>What have Amazon sales been like for Q1?
That's what everyone wants to know. If you can find out you could make a lot of money.

>>18722409
>>18722346

>What have Amazon sales been like for Q1?

This is the big unknown indeed. I, my family and friends stopped buying from amazon since the virus started in fears for package having virus. We only brought food and other essential in the last 2 month.

I can't think of anything that we needed from amazon during the lockdown.

>>18722625
Don't they have massive backorders they are trying to fill? I thought I read that somewhere

>>18722647
Lack of personnel and decreased supply (out of stock) maybe?

Our company who's in manufactures have a huge backorder because China could not deliver, we were and still are out of stock.

Like I said, people in my entourage did not buy anything beside food and essential; no order from amazon.

>>18721292
Is that why Google is cutting its cloud force? Silly kid, they have one real competitor that makes up single digit marketshare

>>18721775
A breakthrough in battery tech by Tesla could change the game for EVs and power distribution in general. Instead of wiring to every home, causing forest fires and wasting space, a person could get 1-2 years worth of power in a Tesla power wall delivered by truck. Their self driving tech is miles ahead of any competition. You're right about an infrastructure bill, half would end up in Tesla's pockets by the end of it. Follow the feds money.

>>18720873

>>18723055
Shut up bobo, you scum getting short squeezed is the reason why we don't get cheapies. Fuck you!

>>18721746
>Microsoft is trusted for some fucking reason.
Microsoft has passed the test of successfully exiting a market. Many businesses rise at the head of a market but then fail to survive when that market dips. Once you decouple yourself from the market you are in, you become a market of your own, and your status is basically eternal.

>>18723138
based

>>18723014
This is dumb. Truck delivery would be way less efficient than using power grid.

Batteries are not going to be anywhere near that efficient in my lifetime anyway. That's like uranium level of energy density.

>>18723138
your tears will only sweeten what is to come

>>18723270
>tears

I'll just buy the dips when you bobos short the bottoms and get wiped out.

>>18723341
>never recovers
Nothing personal kid

Look at the Nikkei you retarded zoomer

>>18720862

Facebook, Apple and Google probably down. Amazon up, they had to hire a shitload of people. Netflix probably crabbing somewhat, because broke niggas can't start a new account and might even cancel and switch to The Pirate Bay for their entertainment. I know I did.

>>18720873
Fake chart. Dow has rallied just as much as SPX and AMZN isn't part of that.

>>18723460
>Dow
the Dow has a lot of different companies than the S&P it's a completely different index.

>>18720862
Of FAANG, only Amazon is legit, and is useful. Facebook is normie internet, apple is overpriced (3x) shit, Netflix is for normies who are too tech illiterate to use torrents, and google is some shitty web search engine who delists interesting results, also called (((fake news))). Google literally has algorithms which modifies it's original algorithm, because the people would find something better kept unknown.

>>18723701
It is but it's up like 15% since the march crash. Even though they are probably gaining market share spending is really depressed and will remain so for the next few years, so I don't know that price will be sustainable after earnings.

Apple is on the cusp of building their own fabrication pipeline for their A13 chips. They will finally break away from dependency on Intel and offshore chip fabrication.

>>18723701
>Alphabet is only the search engine
Also I hope for your sake when you call Apple overpriced, you're referring to the fact that its stock is massively overvalued. If Apple's bubble doesn't pop in the next 20 years I will be genuinely surprised. They're the IBM of the early 21st century.

The fact that it has overpriced merchandise is completely irrelevant.

>>18723778
They'll have TSMC make their chips in Taiwan. It's a good move, but it wont save apple from continuing to lose market share in smart phones. Which are it's most profitable product.

https://hypercharts.co/aapl

What a weird day today. Almost the inverse of most days when everything is red but FAANG + M. I'm not sure what it means for the rest of the week. I suspect it means some people don't want to be in these stock when earnings come out.

>>18723792
>The fact that it has overpriced merchandise is completely irrelevant.
Not really. It's luxury products. So prone to fashion, trends etc... What happens if the trend shifts? It's very possible that people will finally notice that they are getting scammed buying overpriced apple products. This scam can't go on for decades, especially if there are open source, better OSes.

>>18723956
>This scam can't go on for decade

But it already has

>>18723956
>>18724690

It's not a scam just because you wouldn't pay for it. That's like saying fancy shoes or bags are a scam because you can get those items much cheaper or even free.

>>18724867
>That's like saying fancy shoes or bags are a scam because you can get those items much cheaper or even free.
Luxury in general is a scam. It's artificial value. The profit is usually way higher in Luxury than in ordinary products. It's justified by nothing, other than the fact that people are willing to pay more so that they can get social credit.

>>18725021
social credit is kind of the thing. It's the same reason a Peacock has a beautiful tail. It's a way of signalling your quality by showing you have money to waste.

On another note I'm a programmer and I use a mac all my programmer friends use macs too. It's the best system to develop on imo. Manly bc it's unix based, has excellent build quality, and far fewer bugs than windows machine.

>>18722066
>Batteries are the limiting technology for sustainable renewable
They are A limiting factor, so there will always be demand for more or better batteries, but they can be worked around under the right conditions.
Take Australia's Snowy Hydro project, surplus power (coal back in the day, but its slowly transitioning to renewables as the market shifts) is used to pump water up hill into a big resiviour. When more power is needed, water is let out of the resiviour and lows through a hydro generator, creating the needed electricity.
Its power storage on a massive scale, no batteries required.

>>18722121
Im working on that as we speak, carbon neutral oil (and therefore carbon neutral versions of all the fuels and plastics we produce from oil) will be on the market within ten years, fifteen at the latest.

>>18725181
ya that sounds good, but it's massively inefficient and capital intensive. Very few places will end up using water pumping for energy storage.

Anytime energy is moved a significant portion is lost. Charging a batter may result in 80% efficiency and discharging it may result in 80% out. Meaning you only end up using 64% of the energy you used to charge the battery. With water pumping those numbers are much lower. Also building the reservoirs is super expensive if you don't already have a natural reservoir.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66YRCjkxIcg

>>18725221
what is this oil from CO2?

You have to put a massive discount on laboratory technologies. Things sometimes look great in a papers or tech demos, but there are inevitably a lot of challenges when companies attempt to commercialize.

Care to share what you're working on?