/biz/ - Business & Finance

hmmmmm
mab because corona

>>30431141
Finally. No matter how hard these fags try to pump it. The power of the free market will always be triumphant. Soon investors will realise they are not generating enough returns from renting out their mortgage properties and cause a mass selling wave. I am so fucking excited.

What is the mechanism causing this?
Real estate speculation?

>>30431343
inflation

It's good because scummy landlords will hopefully have less incentive to buy up more of the houses on the market. I wish there was a 50% tax on second/third/fourth properties.
Also I own my home so I I'm fine with this.

>>30431313
Who fucking knew not increasing wages for people to pay rent on ever increasing properties coupled will all this rona shit would eventually cause a collapse?

>>30431384
Rent would be going up as well dumbass

It means every yuppie in the country thinks they can earn income leveraging investment properties and renting them. They get cycled through every 10-15 years when interest rates ream them in the assholes

>>30431313
This

>>30431407
Eventually but it lags real estate.

>>30431384
Also this. Print 20% more money. "Gee I wonder why everything is 20% more expensive all of a sudden?"

>>30431406
these niggers will still argue somehow property will still go up. Worst come to worst people will just live a caravan

>>30431407
Do you expect it all to happen at once anon?

>>30431406
>not increasing wages
In case you have not noticed yet, USA is ruled by oligarchy, not the people.
Why would they ever want to increase their costs? They have been importing cheap workforce from shitholes since 50s exactly for the opposite effect.

>>30431141
What that shows is how many people are now buying homes as investments instead of as places to live in

>>30431343
Low interest rates

>>30431313
It's arguably gonna be worse than 08 too

>>30431343
Inflation and people FOMOing into buying homes because mortgage interest rates are incredibly low right now. Pretty much everyone right now with the credit to do so are buying homes which is also driving up the average price of homes. Just go look on Zillow and see how pretty much every home in the $200k-250k range are almost all bought the same day that they are listed, and even then for more than 15k over what the home is valued at AND having inspections waived. Right now is a seller's wet dream.

>>30431549
>Why would they ever want to increase their costs?
They need fuel to keep things from crashing like we are now seeing. Just enough to keep them poor but also keep the gears turning my friend.

>>30431141
Who the fuck is buying a home in Atlanta? But inflation yes

>>30431313
>>30431396
or maybe rent will just go up until there is an economic crash because leftists don't understand the concept of 'moving'.

>>30431406
>Who fucking knew not increasing wage
wages are going up son. Sit down. Wages have gone up a lot and will continue to do so. Rent will meet the rising wages as near to home price as possible. There is a reason why working for the same company in a big city gives you a bigger salary. The worry here is that jerk when people realize their wages are worth less.

>>30431532
No, it happens in fast food, oil, wages, and homes first.
>all 4 are happening now
Next comes grocery food, cable bills, internet bills, rent, gas, and electricity. All have already been confirmed to be rising in the future

Good luck.

>>30431313
>The power of the free market
Are you fucking retarded? This is happening because of how low the interest rates are. And they are kept artificially low by the fed. This is the direct result of central planning.

>>30431946
>home in Atlanta
Everyone who works for a living fleeing the liberal Utopias. It's like a deep south Austin

>>30431946
Atlanta is booming for many reasons

>>30432004
you missed the entire point of my post friend. I am agreeing with you and the free market will naturally take its course. the bubble will burst

>>30432004
red and probably going to make it pilled

>>30431780
>Pretty much everyone right now with the credit to do so are buying homes which is also driving up the average price of homes.
This piece of shit in my zipcode is $289,900 (CA)

All you fags been talking about this shit even years before covid. Stfu there aint going to be a crash

>>30431141
rents in america are already unaffordable. they have no where to go but down. live in coontown exurbs of philadelphia and it's like $1200 a month for a 1 bedroom cuckbox. i feel poor and shit and i make $75k a year. i have literally no idea how niggers who work at the amazon warehouse for $15/hour afford rent.

>>30431141
Based.
My plan to live in a yurt and pick up some properties to become a landlord and make Redditors and /biz/fags seethe by gloating about being a landlord will come to fruition in this power vacuum.

>>30432360
I make $80k and feel the same but I invest most of it so I guess you could get by on min wage with 0 investing and live paycheck to paycheck. Imagine the stress

>>30431946
>wages are going up son
>people realize their wages are worth less.
Not him but isn't that what he was saying? Money's worth is decaying faster than ever in recent history no? My grocery bill has almost doubled in 5 years and I'm the same weight.

>>30432327
>All you fags been talking about this shit even years before covid. Stfu there aint going to be a crash

>be 26
>own property and collect rent
>constantly see posts like “CANNOT WAIT FOR THE COLLAPSE OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET”
>kek

Rents due on the first on the month, anons

>>30432299
Move to the central valley dipshit. Fresno is cheap as hell to live in (if you can tolerate illegals, Hmongs, and Laotians) and the Sheriff there actually issues concealed carry permits unlike the rest of that shithole of a state. Why anyone who isn't part of the upper class willingly chooses to live in coastal California or parts of SoCal is beyond me.

>>30432666

This, you can pick up condos for 120k still and charge ~1400-1500 rent, you can clear 1000 a month on a 30 year loan

>>30432666
I was posting that just to prove a point about houses going up in price, but honestly there's no reason I haven't moved yet beyond family refusing to leave with me. I have grand parents in FL and that's it.

>>30432666
I live in LA which has really sucked lately but you can't beat socal weather, nightlife and women. Do you even enjoy your life or focus only on making more money?

>>30432775
Taxes associations repairs. You’ve never been a landlord

>>30431141
>This ain't good
why?

>>30431313
i cant wait for this. although all the smug fucking boomers are getting rekt on rental properties right now as it is. most leftist states wont allow landlords to remove tenants due to corona. i enjoy the fuck out of knowing those rich boomers are feeling the pain. once the overvalued real estate market plunges it will be even more glorious. homes are the worst investment and way overpriced

>>30431141
Why's there no scale on the Y-axis?

>>30432649
Could be, but there is a big difference between wages worth less and wages not increasing. Wages absolutely are increasing. Their buying power is going down. These are two problems that have two completely different solutions. And there absolutely are a lot of people pretending they aren't getting payed more.

>>30432666
checked satan
from bakersfield all the way up to stockton the prices aren't that bad

>>30431946
>wages are going up son. Sit down. Wages have gone up a lot and will continue to do so.
no they have not you fucking idiot. inflation adjusted median income has remained stagnant for decades . unless you're a brainlet and bring out the avg income statistic which is inflated by the 1%

>>30432852
>taxes
CA actually had very cheap property tax
>HOA
If you invest in HOA properties that’s on you dipshit
>repairs
You can purchase extended warranties on anything in your unit, you can amortize your annual premiums and it’s still 30 a month

Sorry you can’t into property

>>30432666
>if you can tolerate illegals, Hmongs, and Laotians
who the fuck would want to tolerate low iq shitskins and crime. fuck off

I rent out my fully paid off home and its worth it. The only reason i would use rent to pay a mortgage is if i bought another home and i wanted the tenants to pay for it.

>>30433009
There is

>>30432299
Jesus Christ

rent as function of interest rate (interest goes down rent can go down
housing as function of interest rate (interest rate down price goes up)

>>30432959

Boomers paid of there houses in 1989 you fucking idiot.Contrary to what you say Boomers do not flip houses, they are not responsible for high prices....the Federal Reserve is responsible.

>>30432959
Those retarded tenants still owe rent and are pricing themselves out even more than ever.

>>30432299
Looks cozy

>>30433164
My bad. What the hell is happening in Atlanta?

>>30433065
>no they have not you fucking idiot. inflation adjusted median income
I'm sorry your peanut socialist brain cannot understand this but there is a difference between
>wages are not going up
and
>wages are worth less
The difference is the fact that these two things have entirely different solutions. Your piss slinging over the conversation doesn't confuse anyone with more than room temperature IQ.

>>30433065
>unless you're a brainlet and bring out the avg income statistic which is inflated by the 1%

Where do you work that you have not gotten several raises since the start of CoVid? Your average fast food worker has seen a 25% raise increase, I know a few who confirmed this. Retail workers wages are up something like 40% depending on how you look at the numbers. Construction wages are up 30%. Or are you a keyboard socialist NEET? I suppose technies that moved from cities to work from home took a SMALL paycut but the living expensive change is huge.

>>30432360
>i have literally no idea how niggers who work at the amazon warehouse for $15/hour afford rent
You can go to Russia and visit gastarbeiters from Uzbekistan to see how 8 people can live in one bedroom.
I think, those niggers live similarly.

>>30431141
run this back to 2007

>>30431519
>somehow property will still go up
take a look at Toronto with their shitty, devalued currency

>>30431396
Ehh, I lost like $2-3k on decreased rents in 2020. Property value increases net me close to $200k in equity. Plus thousands in stimmies, business grants and unemployment. Put most of the extra cash I got this year into improving my balance sheet, so a pull back in property prices will just be another buying opportunity.

>>30432660
We need flags on this board like /pol/ has. Would clear up a lot of shit

>>30433360

>>30433732
Bcuz banks are rubberstamping loans again.

A first time buyer home credit is coming, expect that to breathe new life into the bubble for another 7 months.

Then it may finally crash...we have reached a wall on what people can pay. I feel bad for anyone buying houses right now, when this moratorium expires its literally gonna be over

>>30432360
>i have literally no idea how niggers who work at the amazon warehouse for $15/hour afford rent.
You'd be amazed how much welfare they probably get, in some areas you get more unemployment a month than with an actual job

>>30432299
>spend $300,000 up front
>then have to chase out niggers squatting in house
>then have to pay to tear down house
>then have to pay to build new house
No thanks, I'm good

>>30432360
I make about $27k as a grad student in a rural college town. Proportionally, rent is fucking expensive here too. Minimum price for a two bedroom place with a dishwasher and in-unit laundry is like $1300 a month.

Rent is designed for undergrads' rich parents to cover. Also universities pay they grad students literal slave wages. I'm paid minimum wage for a 40 hour work week, but grad students regularly do 50-60 hour weeks, and we're skilled, educated labor. Idk why I went on that tangent but not deleting it so

>>30433407
>Where do you work that you have not gotten several raises since the start of CoVid?
EVERYONE I know: friends, family, clients (I work for a lot of well-off middle class people) has told me that they took a pay cut because of COVID or their raise/ bonus/ promotion was frozen. Even if their company is doing great as some are, they're postponing raises just to stick it to their wagies.

>>30431343
Low supply and lots of money

>>30434257
>wagies afraid of tighter job market and uncertainty during pandemic
>company cuts pay and benefits while they know they can get away with it
Par for the course. Glad I quit waging before all this started. Hope I never have to go back.

>>30432360
That’s called section 8 btw. The gov pays about 75% of ur rent I believe. Then gives u food stamps and free healthcare and even help u with ur electric and heating bull. Everyone is doing it btw whites, blacks, Mexicans. All the low lives from every race are doing it. Just to be fair

>>30431141
Why did Washington sharply plummet in recent times? BLM?

>>30431407
It’s people leaving cities because of Portland

>>30433128
That's the price you pay for staying in California. Let me guess, you have some elaborate turner diaries-esque fantasy where the remaining whites will finally have had enough of trannies marching down the streets and paying for Pedro's dialysis that they'll push every subhuman into the ocean, don't you?
Get a grip retard. If you don't make 300k a year in that state, then you have no choice but to live around low iq shitskins and crime (with the exception of Jefferson but that has its own problems). That's how it is whether you like it or not. If you have a problem with it, take it up with people like Jeff Bezos not me.
That said, there are still perfectly livable areas in the Central Valley that will likely stay that way for a long time where housing is still reasonably priced.

>>30431313
Hahahahaha not gonna happen. Stay mad, renter

And people got a pay raise? Where ??? People lost their job bcs of the pandemic

>>30434257
we cut zero people, gave bonuses and raises. Revenue was off 25% for first 3 months of covid. Many owners I know froze raises, but still did bonuses if they were profitable

>>30431141
yes, because rents are tied to salaries and houses are boomer bags

>>30434687
>Real estate prices are not a function of rents

This is gonna be good

>>30434896
i work for a publicly traded company. they cut bonuses by 20% and gave everyone a flat 3% raise.

>>30431577
Good answer and checked.

>>30434257

depends on the industry. anything related to tech/digital media/gaming did great.

>t. 6 figure earner who got a bonus.

>trying to buy a house
>jew californians offer 40k over asking price

why?

>>30433787
no, if you want identities attached to posts go to reddit

>>30431141
It unironically looks like housing is experiencing a blow off top right now

>>30432360
>make 75k/yr
>feel poor

Try making 15/hr in a large city like new york
Too rich to qualify for section 8, too poor to rent a studio, all you are left with are roommates

>but just move to a rural shitstain!
I would rather not be paid your dogshit $7 cuck wages that never go up because 70% of the state is retarded enough to vote red every day

>>30434665
>Let me guess, you have some elaborate turner diaries-esque fantasy where the remaining whites will finally have had enough of trannies marching down the streets and paying for Pedro's dialysis that they'll push every subhuman into the ocean, don't you?
yes

>>30431141
Bubble's gonna pop real bad

>>30431141
good if you already hold a house or 2.

>>30431313
so delusional
this is a deflationary mindset
you are fighting the last war (2008)
we are going into structurally higher inflation
how do you expect home prices to fall with
-soaring commodity (input) prices. Lumber literally 2x
-soaring labor costs
-Govt bailouts to prevent nominal home price declines (mortgage forbearance with printed money)

>>30433407
take your diatribe elsewhere. the stats show median income is going nowhere and diverged from productivity decades ago. no one is making lots of money except for the select few silicon valley types or wall street / top tier white collar professionals

>>30433407
You are disconnected from most people's reality. Most people have not received raises. I graduated from engineering school last May and half my friends are out of work, and I have had to take a shit job after interviewing deep at SpaceX before Covid hit.

The economy is very fucked and its about to have a reckoning. No amount of propaganda is going to prevent it.

>>30435169

we already have post IDs. flags with no post id would be better

>>30433290
>>30433301
whatever boomers are still feeling the heat and its great. they need to reap the fruits of their labor (bringing in shitskins, devaluing the dollar, etc)

>>30434665
I like the hispanics a lot, the cholos down the street are cool. We are unified in our hatred of blacks and work together to keep our little hood safe. In a happening i put my money on them over blacks any day of the week.

>>30431141
how do i short atlanta home prices?

how do I short rent

>>30435532
>you are fighting the last war (2008)
we are going into structurally higher inflation
how do you expect home prices to fall with
-soaring commodity (input) prices. Lumber literally 2x
So what happens next anon

>>30431407
rent is going down and houses are going up because people are moving out of the cities (renting) and buying houses in the suburbs (home prices)

>>30431313
Why would they sell when the underlying asset is exponentially increasing in value? They’re not gonna sell until house prices start declining, the renting is just a cherry on top.

>>30431465
Print 80% more money* the inflation is coming and these idiots are still complaining about landlords.

premiums on silver are approaching 25% and online dealers delay shipping for months. some sites have started to restrict international sales. paper silver is still dropping. the end is near anons, 5, maybe 10 years? get yourselves in order

>>30435606
I'm a landlord with 9 properties and I haven't felt anything. Selling two of my properties actually and one made 30k profit since 2015 while the other made 15k. Both made me around 400 profit each month. People always need somewhere to live

>>30431141
higher inflation expectations means the price/rent ratio should be higher
owners get the and rising rents
and paying bank the loan with worthless currency
while retaining their real asset
renters get their rent increased
if you expect inflation you should buy

>>30435679
>thinking the 3x on the ten year will have to long term change to mortgage rates

NGMI anon I just sold 5 of my houses as a small time slumlord. Got a luxury rental at a discount and am waiting for the hell that will come shortly.

>>30435923
basement dweller here, potentially moving in with friends in 2 months though.


Are you worried about inflation? I've been doing every bit of research I can to try to wrap my head on what's going on. Do I just buy a house now or wait for a fat crash? Anything not 200k here is in crime ridden ass places.

>>30435969
We might have a pop in inflation but it will be short lived in 2020

Pop >deflation > inflation when people actually get back to work in 22ish

>>30435666
That's only for insiders, sorry goyim

>>30433735
there wont be a pullback there will be a 60% crash

>>30436118
Wait for supply to pick up

At least u til moratorium is done in June to see what actual home prices and supple/demand is

Don’t fomo

>>30434665
>with the exception of Jefferson but that has its own problems
Such as?
Living along the 80 between sacramento and tahoe is nice.

>>30431141
hot off the presses..

>>30432665
Not paying, gonna ride this moratorium out and then used my actual rent money for a down payment on a condo. Get fucked

>>30435679
Seems he is thinking about it backwards, or am I missing something... Why would the spot commodity prices affect the price of a house that's already built? I really don't think you can value the home intrinsically for its parts like wood and copper after its built.
Cost-push factors would affect the price to build a brand new home, but ready-to-move-in housing is in demand-pull inflation. When demand falls, prices of homes would fall, then demand for new home constructions will fall, then those commodity prices will fall.
>why would housing demand fall?
Mentioned in the thread already but:
- rentcucks not paying
- variable rate mortgagecucks getting shagged by higher % rates
- less migrants (oh no no ahah, aHAH AAAHAHAH!) because less jobs
- foreclosures

You can consider the FOMO to build new homes will also add more supply to the market, so now prices are really down. Note: this is just one fantasy possibility in clown world

>>30436267
Look great except for the 25 fucking year baghold from 29 you fucking blind autist

>>30436267
wtf is being measured in this chart?

>>30431141

>>30436325
This anon gets it

Also new homes were started on 1-2 years ago. New home building is a lagging indicator at least 12 months behind.

>>30436222
Supply of what? Houses on the market?

>>30436348
>>30436405
kek burry is going to be smug as fuck on twitter during the next serious housing decline
>*sigh* I TRIED to warn them... *alludes to myth of Cassandra* *posts cryptic poetry in non-english language*

>>30435679
home prices may not increase at the same rate this year
but people expecting some huge decline such as occurred after 2008 are absolutely delusional
Underwriting has been very conservative and banks have only been giving loans to people with very good credit for many years
Buying a home with a mortgage rate equal to or BELOW the inflation rate is a great deal
What I expect is home prices to rise with inflation, which I expect to be 3%+ for many years and possibly 5-6%
Buying real estate is a nice bet but I international, especially emerging market stocks, are the best risk/reward investment right now.
"The average credit score of borrowers who got all types of mortgages in June rose to 731, an almost three-year high, as a strong labor market helped Americans pay their bills on time."
June 2019.
There isn't a lot of junk borrowers going into this downturn.
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/consumer-credit-trends/student-loans/borrower-risk-profiles/

>>30436477
Yes look up how many people are on forbearance and delinquent on payment 90 days plus

Ken macelroy (spelling) does a great video on this on YouTube with links to the numbers

We have about a years supply available that the government isn’t allowing to go to market (foreclosures).

Also majority of rentals are held by mom and pop landlords which are slowly going insolvent.

We’ll go from no supply (now) to super high supply once moratoriums are lifted.

>>30431549
Increasing the dollar amount but massively lowering the value of each dollar is a faster way to steal your money while keeping the brainlets from noticing.

>>30436160
Why would it be short lived?
Higher commodities including oil is inflationary
Higher deficit spending financed by printed money is inflationary
Higher min. wages is inflationary
Onshoring manufacturing or going away from lowest cost supply chains (relocating from China to Vietnam, or to USA $$$) is inflationary
Weaker USD is deflationary
China has been exporting deflation as the prices of US imports from China have been declining for 20 years and have started to rise.
https://www.macrovoices.com/938-macrovoices-256-russell-napier-prepare-for-secular-inflation
https://www.macrovoices.com/948-macrovoices-260-lyn-alden-shifting-from-monetary-to-fiscal-dominance

>>30436234
Fires mostly.
Making money can also be an issue if you're stuck with the idea that you need to wagecuck for a corporation, but that's easy to mitigate if you work from home or have an actually useful trade skill or don't mind the possibility of losing body parts logging. Beyond that, it's mostly the same issues you find elsewhere in rural america like people being addicted to oppiates, methheads breaking into your property to steal tools, water rights, etc.

>>30436526
You need an income to put said bank.

Look up labor force participation rate we’re back in 1973 anon.

>>30435318
You're a fuckin retard

> thinks he should live off a highschool job

Please neck yourself.

>>30436267
Can't predict market crashes based on trends.

I agree the economy is jacked up on steroids, coffee and sugar. But your annotated chart is not excellent.

>>30436222
>He thinks it will end in June
Student loans already extended to September
why not extend until then?
Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

>>30436588
That sounds crazy. Thanks for the knowledge pimp

>>30436676
People hoard cash when there is trouble

53% of stimmies were saved look it up.

Savings = deflation

The numbers all point inflation but the psychology of the people says deflation.

It will be short lived for sure but once moratoriums and stimmies are up people will hoard cash as they know they have no job to go back to

Pic very related

>>30436337
>>30436362
you people are so goddamned stupid. I hope you are not in a major city. Generational credit cycle is coming to an end. try learning some manners before youre going to have to approach armed men to beg for food and water

>>30436891
Why do you think I sold 5 homes and am buying silver gold ammo and puts anon?

>>30436588
The monetary and fiscal authorities will not allow a decline in nominal prices
They are going to let owner occupants and landlords add payments to the end of their mortgage to pay in 25+ years
Which is very generous to owners
Financed with printed money
2020 was the most likely recession to have deflationary deleveraging spiral and the monetary and fiscal authorities have made clear they will print as much needed to prevent deflation from occurring, even if we get significant inflation.
You are fighting the last war and not recognizing the regime change into higher secular inflation.
(1/2)

>>30436789
you are stupid as well. WHAT DID THE FED DO TO INTEREST RATES IN THE FUCKING 80s WHEN YOU MADE YOUR GAY ASS PURPLE CIRCLE ON THE LEFT. GO FUCK YOURSELF

>>30431313
This. As a free market capitalist, I hate landlords more than any commie faggot ever could. Can't wait until these smug boomers have to liquidate all their properties and white families can start buying bungalows again

FUCK R*NTSEEKERS

>>30436996
I hope you invested in an off grid power supply and a hand pumped well

>>30432299
That my friend could be a beautiful home. That’s a sears home. The saying they don’t build them like they used to isn’t a meme. That wood on the siding and interior is from first generation forests, which is well over 500+ years old. If the wood isn’t termite infested and you do a lot of the work yourself that’s a diamond in the rough plus a piece of american history to boot. Pricey but thats CA, t. own a sears home. Not exact model but pic related.

>>30437013
It works until it doesn’t

I’m hedging with pm crypto and ammo

Didn’t sell all my homes either but taking 6mo this out in cash to see what happens isn’t a dumb move. They will inflate the debt away for sure but short term 6-12 months I see deflation.

>>30436874
Yes they were saved by people but stimulus is a very small % of these bills, including the $1.9T they just passed.
Most of it is spending financed by printed money.
Foreigners are reducing holdings of Treasuries.
There is insufficient domestic savings to buy the issuance.
So the Fed is buying larger and larger % of the issuance.
Very this chart in conjunction with
>>30437013

>>30432666
Drove down a highway outside of fresno on the way to I think king canyon. Tbh getting a nice piece of property in the foothills right there is pretty based. Plus you're 3 hours from SLO? Sucks paying Cali taxes tho...

and checked

>>30437152
I agree by that chart I’d say we’re roughly at a 1970

Sharp short deflation people go aaaaaaaa

Crisis

Fed steps in to fix it

Solution inflate it away.

They need an excuse to mop up the mess they can’t just go Zimbabwe on us for no reason, they need a crisis first.

>>30431313

>free market

lmao no mortgages are pretty much free with effectively negative interest rates if you account for inflation. According to the current economic climate, as soon as housing starts to dip they will pass a 5T relief bill or something to forgive the loans.

>>30437328
Hard to see a broad short term deflation except a few select categories such as business travel
Supply is down and demand is coming back online
There are fewer restaurants so each of the remaining can charge more
Commodity prices are way up, higher than 2020
I think short term rising US yields lead to USD strength until the Fed does explicit YCC or increases amount of long-term Treasury purchases laster this year

CRASH CRASH CRASH
I WANT IT ALL TO CRASH

>>30436676
Good points.
>Higher commodities including oil is inflationary
Cost-push inflation, like in the 1970s. Eventually shit is too expensive which kills demand. Top left of your quadrant.
>Higher deficit spending financed by printed money is inflationary
Demand-pull inflation, plus its all unproductive spending like in Argentina. Actually concerned with this one.
>Higher min. wages is inflationary
checked
>Onshoring manufacturing or going away from lowest cost supply chains (relocating from China to Vietnam, or to USA $$$) is inflationary
Cost-push but is that really happening any time soon? I don't see it.
>Weaker USD is deflationary
not sure I get that one?

>>30437372
>>30431313
Already proposed.
Biden proposes giving first time homebuyers $15,000 of taxpayer / printed money.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/19/biden-looks-to-give-a-big-boost-to-homebuyers-and-builders.html

>>30435318
I'd much rather live in a trailer in the middle of nowhere than some pod in your vibrant big city

>>30432360
I pay 1350 to live in New York
I'm unemployed

Im 22, how the fuck do i cope with being priced out of everything required to have a nice comfy family when my life is just getting started bros, everyone i know my age is either riding on daddys money, or is fucking doomed and depressed

>what are interest rates

Mortgage rates were in the 2.x% for 30 year FIXED for the past year. Most home owners have slashed their mortgage payment as well, through refi, while bigger mortgages drives up prices too.

>>30432299
It's just a bit of a fixer upper anon gosh

>>30437587
you will live in the city pod with the violent shitskins and be poor and you will love it

>>30437038
Great idea, except white families won't buy them. They will be bought by large companies and taken off the market. This happened last time.

>>30431141
What happens when every other retard keeps buying property on credit and rents it out? They create competition with one another. This is why mortgage is the most retarded shit ever. Instead of being able to afford a house within 1 year of work, you have to either work 10+ years or get a mortgage. However jews exploit that and get 100+ properties and rent them out for more than the mortgage. There are towns with over 500k+ aprartaments here despite only 1 mil population. Fuck jews.

>>30431407
aren't cities stopping people from getting evicted faggot?

>>30437513
>>30437513
>Eventually shit is too expensive
That is where the printed money handed out to people creates demand.
Agree with you about demand pull inflation. Some supply reductions such as shutdown at sawmills has lead some inputs such as lumber to go absolutely parabolic.
Look at this fucking bullshit.
>Weaker USD is INFLATIONARY
As things cost more because your dollar buys less of products made in other countries. China, EU, Japan, whatever. This one is harder because all western central banks + Japan are mega brrrr.
It is harder to judge USD index such as DXY which is relative to other fiat currencies when the EU is trying to mega-print just as much.
What is more easily determined is that western fiat currencies are ALL going into the toilet compared to real assets.
I think buying EM equities, especially Asia, and commodity producers are the best investments.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239629/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-asia-etf
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-global-natural-resources-etf-gnr

>>30437799
Jews didn't create the American dream and suburban lifestyle you retard. Those are the cause of the problem.

Enjoy your dumb Protestant Capitalist marriage.

>>30437619
Go to church and meet older guys with good careers
They are your foot in the door to the good life

>t.24yo working from home

>>30437874
OK kek, thanks for the clarification.
One point I need convincing on is commodity prices being genuine and not just speculation. I get the lumber supply shock, and oil being pretty much decided. But lots of other commodities are basically just CME contracts. /BTC futures are now nearly half of all BTC volume. Manipulation of PMs is pretty transparent by now. So it seems risky to go into a commodity producer when you can't tell if the demand down the line is genuine.

>>30437013
What do you think is the best move right now of the following options:
1. Buy a house, because this is probably the new normal
2. Wait to buy a house, betting on a crash in Q4 2021
3. Stay away from real estate, keep it in the stock market, using stocks as a hedge against inflation
4. Go full Mad Max, buy land, crypto, ammo and silver

>>30436187
that sounds exactly like a good buying opportunity

>>30438269
I’d say combo of 2 and 4

That’s what I’m doing

>>30431396
>I wish there was a 50% tax
back to redd!t

>>30438248
Well I think the demand for stuff such as oil is here to stay and industrial metals will only increase with infrastructure spend and just think we are entering into a structural bull market in commodities.
Many of these companies both oil and the others reduced spending on capex and exploration in the last 10 years in weak commodity price environment so now there is not enough. For example copper, there have not been many major discoveries. Listen to this frog:
https://www.macrovoices.com/946-macrovoices-259-louis-vincent-gave-as-inflationista-as-they-come
Many of these companies are in the tank valuation wise after underperforming for a decade and they are a nice value allocation alternative/diversifier to high flying tech stocks. I think people shoveling money into ARKK and similar no earnings tech stocks I see shilled here like are going to get hosed.
>>30438269
Buy a home and put the least % down you can for non-FHA and invest the rest in stocks. I am buying a home this month but putting 3-5% down. Investing the rest in both ex-US developed and mostly emerging market stocks.
Like I said I think Fed and US Govt will do anything to prevent declines in nominal prices broadly. Obviously some metro areas may be weaker and see declines. Hard to see massive declines when people can live mortgage free.
The big point is the govt who owns Fannie and Freddie are letting people add owed amount to end of loan which is a giant giveaway to real estate owners and boomers and impoverishes the young and non-homeowners.
"servicers cannot require you to pay a lump sum. So, if you only hear about a lump-sum repayment, ask about other options.". No forced liquidations = no massive deflationary decline in home prices.
The payments to RMBS holders are financed with printed money so they get paid. See:
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/coronavirus/mortgage-and-housing-assistance/after-you-receive-relief/#exit

>>30438269
Thinking about it in terms of this book, and assuming you'll be using debt, not cash
>1
Seems like you have way more to lose. The choice is asymmetric to the downside. You take the mortgage now and the price drops, now you're stuck with fixed payments for 30 fucking years. You lose your job and are forced to sell at a loss. Lots of ways to get permaFUCKed with this option
>2
You lose nothing but have everything to gain. Potentially nicely asymmetric to the upside. If you get the crash you win bigly, assuming it plays out like you think. If not, you can just wait more. Actually your downside here is that you'll become that chinese its-all-so-tiresome guy
>3
Definitely more liquid, and depending how you set up the portfolio, can be unlimited to the upside (or downside).
>4
You'll need to go FULL Mad Max. Hidden risks in your plan are late-stage capitalism commie-zombie land grabbers, crypto rug-pull, and Biden outlawing guns, and silver being sucked up by an alien space magnet. Otherwise sounds like the coziest option.

>>30431343
>What is the mechanism causing this?
Jews. The answer is always Jews.

>>30435679
Lumber is expensive but timber is cheap. That makes sense when you realize that the issue is with the mills. Especially the fact that kilns used to dry the freshly cut lumber can't scale up.

>>30431343
>What is the mechanism causing this?
That's an interesting riddle.

>>30436325
as the cost of building a new home goes up, people will instead opt to buying existing homes instead which will raise prices some

>>30431577
Isn’t rental yield the measure of how good of an investment a house is?

If people are banking just on equity gains that’s just speculation.

>>30438269
2-4 are all good

>>30440126
no because total return includes asset price gains and income.
income is just as much 'speculation' aka based on expectations as income is.
You can buy homes that have much higher rent/home price ratio in areas that are losing population and have been depopulating for decades because the price embeds expectations of low or negative future rent changes.
Buying in Texas or Florida you get a lower rental yield because the market is pricing in future rent growth due to many people moving there.
High dividend yield = low implied dividend growth.
Low dividend yield = high implied dividend growth.

>>30438999
I listen to all the macroboomers, but after years of this finmedia shit I start to see clear conflict of interest in these guests. The frog louis is chairman of a Robotics ETF. Hmmm robotics, copper; I wonder what he's doing in his other fund, called "Evergreen". Russel Napier is part of Kennox "value investments" and runs Myd Wynd or whatever, . Actual investment banks pay to have these narratives carried.

>>30440712
eh. I think you should always be careful of conflict of interest but always important to do your own research.
Just independent thinking and evaluate what are the arguments for/against what they are saying.
Also Lyn Alden is hardly boomer.
I work in financial services but nothing remotely related to anyone I have linked lol.

If this is really people hedging against inflation with real estate, I doubt their knowledge of history is very good.

It's better than holding fiat, but there's much better plays than real estate, especially as stagflation seems likely.

>>30431313
And fucking Amazon will buy them all up and we will all be living in a primeHomes™ subdivided into 15 primePods™ that monitor your "at-home workplace contributions" and won't turn the lights off in your primePods™ until you finish.

>>30432360
they live in the ghetto or with roommates. look at rents and home prices in the neighborhoods north of temple u, very affordable but also very ghetto. I make 60k/yr and have a wife and kid and live in a hood part of south philly, likely have to leave because new york came and raped the rental market last summer.

>>30442254
year that is a literal warzone.
Sorry to hear anon. I left Philly last summer.
Shithole city and will only get worse after Chauvin in acquitted BLM will burn major shit down.
Companies moving to the suburbs without shitty city wage tax.

>>30437665
>>30437587
Both of these options are shit. Why is america so fucking shit?

>>30437038
>I hate landlords more than any commie faggot ever could.

Kinda doubt that anon. Mao killed how many landlords?

>>30431141
Ok so what does this mean in the long run?

>>30443798
That the only affordable route for most people will be permanent renting, which will trend toward cheaper and cheaper over time, while detached family dwellings become a sign of the upper middle class and the boomers.

>>30431141

rent is tied to wages
house prices are tied to borrowing
can't take out a 2% mortgage to pay your rent

>>30435969
you seem smart. Are we headed for inflation?
Or stock market burst?
What should we buy? How should we prepare? Gold,btc?

>>30443235
Hi Tim Pool

>>30431141
this makes me coom

>>30441944
>but there's much better plays than real estate
Such as? I feel like prices are going nowhere but up on homes in perpetuity, because US home ownership/the retirement industrial complex is contingent upon it.

>>30431141
dhedge fixes this

>>30431141
This is because government is practically forcing fixed rents. Once wuflu is declared over, you'll see rents shoot through the rough.

>>30436269
Going to be hard to qualify for a loan with collections on your record.

>>30443564
collapsing empire

>>30433030
>Wages absolutely are increasing.
No, they're not. There's more workers than jobs, zero, I repeat, zero pressure to raise wages. The reason why wages rose 50 years ago, is because we had a worker SHORTAGE.

>>30431626
This. Rates are probably the lowest they'll ever be in your lifetime.

>>30445626
>>30431946
I wonder if this will help raise wages and lower rents and prices
Texas family detention centers expected to transform into rapid-processing hubs
The Biden administration is preparing to convert its immigrant family detention centers in South Texas into Ellis Island-style rapid-processing hubs that will screen migrant parents and children with a goal of releasing them into the United States within 72 hours, according to Department of Homeland Security draft plans obtained by The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/texas-family-detention-centers-changed/2021/03/04/6a0bfa8a-7b6f-11eb-b3d1-9e5aa3d5220c_story.html

Hmmmmm look at the decrease in rent hmmmmmm. Wonder who was president back the. Hmmmmmm hmmmmmm

>>30445730
literally destroying the country for Chinas sake. nothing Biden does deviates from this

>>30431407
People are fleeing chaz.

inflation goes up
qe
so houses will go up too

>>30445682
LOL, they won't be able to over increase the interest rates. They will soon go negative.

Kike capitalism is literally failing in front of our eyes.

>>30446639
ever*

>>30445730
why would anyone immigrant legally at this point? you'd be dumb to. just show up at the border and bam, you're in. no fees. no background check. they'll probably even give you a bus ticket to any town in the US and some food stamps to boot. then just show up at the social security office where ever you're going and get more free gibs. then go to the emergency room if you're sick and get free treatment and meds. then work for $100-200 day "laboring" and pay 0 taxes. if you do file taxes, claim your 10 kids back in mexico and get another $15,000 from the IRS. the american taxpayer is a SUCKER.

>>30437114
Amazing. As an immigrant (white) to your beautiful country I had no idea you also had quality houses at some point. I resigned to buying new construction since that should theoretically last at least 10-15 years before you have to sell to some sucker and buy a new one.

>>30431313
Aren't these homes and buildings being bought like investments, with no intention of selling unless a retard is seriously willing to spend $750k on a small house on MLK boulevard st.

>>30432806
Let’s say I want the weather and the gorgeousness but don’t care about nightlife and women. Where to? San Diego? Florida somewhere? Hawaii? (I do care about 1st world standards though so not Puerto Rico or San Fransisco)

>>30432299
>California
There’s the problem

>>30445682
I hear lots of normie midwits talking about how "its a great time to buy lock in a low interest rate, you gotta take advantage of these low rates theyve never been lower!!!1"

which seems smart on the surface (midwit trap). but when you look at how inflated the price of the homes are you are basically fucking yourself. If you pay 500k for a small house you better pray that the housing bubble continues because if it pops youre going to have a 500k loan on a house worth 300k.

but at least you locked that 500k loan in on a low interest rate lmao

>>30442118
sounds comfy

>>30432360
kek

>>30431141
Rent is stickier due to one year lease terms, so it tends to be a lagging indicator.

>>30435318
>because 70% of the state is retarded enough to vote red every day
Says the NYC dipshit who makes $15hr and complains about where he lives. Get fucking real. You are never going to make it.

>>30431313
Uh I buy house because its physical asset, I don’t care about rentkikery.

>>30436187
I've been hearing about this crash for five years now, where is it?

>>30431141
kekw all these no landers seething while ive already made 6 figures this year jerking off and playing video games.

>>30435285
zoom out

>>30446639
>they won't be able to over increase the interest rates

This is true. they genuinely can never ever raise them again. ever.

>tfw 26 years old living in DC

Already accepted I will never own a property in this city. But maybe in a few years I will be able to rent a studio cuckshed instead of having roommates.

>>30446639
Good, the current system deserves to die.

>>30436790
Enough wagies should be vaccinated by then to where they can be reasonably expected to be working and paying their rent again. I don't have an answer for student loans, however

>>30431946
>wages are going up son
i work with two professional designations and barely scratched by my peers gibs money. it's fucking disgusting.

>>30448287
>Real estate in DC
Politicians and lobbyists kept that place alive in 08, and the surroundings counties
Just move to VA or something

>>30431141
what happened in 2012 specifically that caused this diversion?

>>30436508
kek underrated

>>30447442
if hyperinflation hits what happens to that 500k loan though?

>>30435785
Because they can't cover the cost of their mortgages, many owners are leveraged to the tits

>>30445730
lmao machine-gun processing. Its like making drones for a factory in some tycoon game

>>30431141
I'm 20, and reading this thread just makes me feel like I won't make it at all. It was over for me before I could even really start

>>30450066
You wont make it playing by boomer rules but once the shooting starts those rules cease to exist.

PROTIP: the shooting starts in less than 24 months

>>30445730
This country deserves to collapse already, absolute fucking clown world

>>30450066
checked. Same here fren. I'm 23 and have about 50k in crypto and feel further behind than ever. My plan is to hopefully work remote and get the fuck out of this place before shit really starts hitting the fan. good luck.

>>30449512
from what I understand, interest rates fell in 2012 after being high during the 08 recession

>>30450066
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuOl27qBn0k