/biz/ - Business & Finance

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>>49983927
>Alf
Macro tourist cumlord

>>49984007
explain why? so far his points have been fairly spot on

>>49984016
Like shorting oil at $85?
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1485369912101150721

>>49984235
>https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1485369912101150721

one wrong trade is not necessarily an argument

>>49984312
it hardly instills confidence

>>49983927
>Debit spreads on TLT ? looking at strikes 125- 135
how would you structure the trade? buy 125 call and buy 135 put?

>>49983927
man has a funko pop collection

they are experts in their own bullshit which is deploying capital in the bond market. these guys entire job is to tell big money clients whether the rothschilds are buying or not, and obviously they aren't right now.
the one good point they made before i turned it off was the economy is in fragility mode, another plandemic or false flag would send us to 2008 if that's what they want. whether or not they want to do that, you have to understand what's going on between usa and china and good luck with that. the key to that is the ukraine scenario, if that wraps up nicely then it means the elders of zion have chosen mercy.
jews are very angry at chinks right now and everything is on the table, so owning assets is risky, which is also why they are so cheap, assett managers know what is going on and have gotten out of the pool as much as they can. if things get good with china everyone will flood back in and liquidity will magically return.

>>49984385
i bought 26 contracts of 125 calls and sold 130 calls, thus a debit spread, cost usd 2000, max win will be 9k usd

>>49983927
>Bald
>Beard
>Black retro glasses
>Funkopops in the background
>His entire personality is le Shitalian don't put pineapple on pizza meme

>>49984428
question for me is, have yields topped? for me, Powell sounded like they have, which is why i short yields buy buying calls on TLT

>>49984413
kek how is he okay with people seeing this

>>49984519
if world war 3 starts, then bonds haven't even begun to drop.
i would rather buy LMT than treasury bonds right now

>>49984413
>man has a funko pop collection
saw that too lel

>>49983927
Are these guys actually any good? The only finance podcast I listen to right now is Macrovoices and it's awesome. I've always had a theory that most of this knowledge is just to sell a narrative. MV has been pretty great though, less about pumping bags, more about just "hey what the fuck is going on in the world of finance"

If anybody had any other recommendations though I'd love to hear it

>>49984797
Macrovoices is the best by far , however too many vanila guys too often, I prefer the eurodollar university

>>49984825
I'll check them out then. Wide variety of guests on MV but most are usually okay. I really liked last week episode from the oil guy. I had a feeling that oil was gonna go up but I couldn't quite put all the puzzle pieces together and it was nice to get some confirmation

>>49984863
Anas is the oil genius , you should absolutely follow him on Twitter

>>49984428
out of loop brainlet here, why are jews upset with china?

>>49984797
yes eurodollar university is good but they dont really give any investing advice. its kind of focused on central banking and the bond market / eurodollar

>>49984906
Yeah started following him after that interview. Did you catch that thread he put together on of the possible ways the Biden admin could try to get out of this only to fail? Man oh man we're bent over a barrel here. I find the idea that Russia could end up having to shutter its oil and nat gas plants really interesting though, I haven't heard anybody credible really bring that up as a possibility until Anas put that bug in my ear.

I do hate to lean into conspiracies though but I find it really interesting that all of these leftist voting issues are coming to the forefront during a midterm when we're barreling full speed ahead towards a global energy crunch, and we leaked a memo from the SC prior which is kind of unprecedented. Probably just a coincidence though, I don't like to give lip service to this shit from an economic standpoint. I know America is gonna be fine, but europe is fucked and I didn't even realize how soft handed these "sanctions" were. Biden to me has no credibility left for anybody with half a brain economically. The Putin price hike -- who the fuck is buying that?

>>49984979
That's fine with me. I really need more exposure to the bond market, I'm painfully ignorant on it, it's just so massive.

>>49983927
>snider
Let me guess, his "idea" is that MUH MILKSHAKE is happening in 2 weeks and we need to bet our houses on that

>>49985025
>MILKSHAKE
milkshake theory is from brent johnson, not snider. and so far its right. Sri Lanka is having a sovereign debt crisis. we'll see if any other nations fail as time goes on

Holding bonds is so fucking retarded right now. Bonds will never out perform stocks long term or in a bull run. And rates are so low there is no upside to bonds in a recession because best case scenario rates stay the same or go up less, and bonds are still weak. Bonds are literally worse of both worlds right now. The only reason people buy bonds is because they are forced to, like pensions or insurance companies, or they know they're going to die in a few years anyway.

>>49985025
Until I see counter arguments regarding what he presents in the eurodollar I have no reason to doubt the bond market

>>49985085
Bonds have historically outperformed sp500 though

>>49985101
I don't need a counter argument for every salesman trying to shill me his product. He's a milkshake salesman, every argument he makes is DUUUUDE MILKSHAKE
>>49985042
And yet those two eurodollar retards have been shilling it for years

>>49985116
>historically
Historically rates have been going in the opposite direction

>>49985116

Lol no, only if you are looking at SPX and excluding dividend yield from stocks. Plus rates are going up now with inflation, bonds are fucking garbage.

HOLY SHIT WHO THE FUCK SHOWS THIS SHIT

>>49985116
>Bonds have historically outperformed sp500 though
actually, over the last 20 years, GOLD has outperformed the SP500. yes, fucking gold. gold has gone 6x and the SP500 has only gone 4x

>>49985186
well thats the idea, my assumption is that powell wiill raise the white flag, yields have topped, and the guys are confirming my thesis, which is why i want to hear some bizraeli perspective

>>49984519
>yields have topped
>Powell
Rates are going up until Powell says they aren't. If you're going to follow the words of the fed at least listen to what they're saying.

>>49985335
front end yields is where FED has the power, long term yields ( 10y, 20y and 30y) is where the market defines the rates not powell, i am a freight trader, and i see commodities dying for the last 2 weeks, thus why i think we officially enter the deflationary spiral. You can also check the inventories in the US, those will have to be dumped on the retailers at lower prices as well

>>49983927
Snider has been saying negative interest next year. Is the EURODOLLAR right? or is this just the inflation is transitory 2022 version.

>>49985251
Disappointing... Just like finding out Lynn is a man..

>>49983927

they're joking and having laughs while talking about total economic collapse the likes of which we have never seen.

also, the jew on the left is gay lol

>>49985458
when Powell said its transitory, he actually meant that its due to energy prices, not due to monetary effects (we didnt print money, we printed bank reserves, but commercial banks never gave out so many loans) , which is why i actually agree Powell was indeed right, but he is a politician now, thus why he is saying what the market wants to hear

>>49985497
Jeff Snider is that you?

>>49985484
Really? Source?

>>49985536
maybe i have been listening to the guy too much, but its true, how can we argue inflation when we sanction russia to oblivion, the moment we remove those sanctions, oil dies, commodities die, wheat dies, i dont know, i have yet to see an argument about "money printing" that counters Jeff sucessfully

>>49983927
>recorded friday before sundown

>>49985458
Idk the thing is that Snider I think has been saying similar things for a while but I don't think Snider is a retard either. You got niggers like Rosenberg who people think is a genius even though he was saying we were trending towards a crash for YEARS. Broken clock is right twice a year.

I need to actually listen to this ep later...

>>49985554
it's possible that the military has become aware of the shadow banking system being a national security risk. if powell is serious about removing that system all he has to do is pop the FFR to 10% and then we no longer have to worry about being the reserve currency.

that's the only counter-argument i'd have for jeff and emil, and i've watched every single podcast episode they have produced.

>>49985704
can u please elaborate? what is FFR ? future forward rate? there is no alternative to USD now in my view, clearing, settlement, debt, commodities, its all USD

>>49985744
>what is ffr
gtfo

>>49985744
>FFR
It's the Federal Funds Rate..

>>49985251
Maybe he's shilling it as a great investment. I know there's a real bubble.

>>49983927

Reminder that these guys (along with Steven Van Meter) are all bond bulls who never foresaw inflation despite huge money printing, and were (predictably) totally fucking blindsided by the recent bond market rout. If you can't figure out printing money results in inflation, you aren't worth listening to period. Also, they are just straight up wrong or dishonest about QE when they shill the "it's just bank reserves bro ;^)" line. Pic related.

But do note how that line serves the government, who do not want people to make the connection between printing and inflation. The government's ideal case is to print/spend a lot of money, but have everyone buying their bonds for negative real yields, because those buyers didn't expect the printing to devalue the currency. Hence the propaganda, and attempts to subvert peoples' understanding of basic economics, and to corrupt the metrics which might predict inflation ("adjusting" CPI, suppressing gold with paper, etc).

Fed shills? Morons? Who knows, but for our purposes: same difference, not worth listening to.

>>49986063
shit, this is why i come to biz, cheers bro, finally some good counter arguments, will go through it , should i keep my TLT calls though?

>>49986063
They all follow the OG. Dr. Lacy Hunt

>>49986063
Read a book zomer. We don't see inflation, retard, we are witnessing a price increase in certain industries. I can't believe that I have to explain such simple things on this board.

>>49986118

I see no further source of monetary or goods inflation at present now that congress has stopped spending and Fed is hiking and starting QT. They are in dollar defense mode now. Money supply is actually contracting. The current regime is to pump yields and dollar and crush inflation, and inflation will indeed collapse at some point along with the rest of the economy. Tough to have inflation when everybody's getting laid off. Then you'll finally get that bond-bull goldilocks scenario: yields down, stocks down, inflation over, bonds (TLT) up.

Long term the trajectory is for higher inflation for many reasons which is a yields up, bonds down environment. BUT it is also a cyclical thing: yields will sometimes go down. So if your timing is good you can definitely make money going long bonds at the right times. Right now yields and stocks have a negative correlation because of the inflation, but at some point it will flip positive again and that's the sign it's over, and most likely because we're in recession. That's the point to try to catch the knife.

As for calls I dunno I don't do options. The timing here is too tough. Personally I'd just go leveraged long/short bond etfs. Eventually you'll be right, just be ready to cut bait if it ain't time yet.

Alf is a fucking retarded pasta nigger, the kikes are smart tho. Idk why they entertain him.

>>49986151
Develop

>>49986684
Only poos talk like this.

>>49984797
Macrovoices is good
Snider is a contrarian fuck these days but a good counterbalance for everything mainstream finance news shits out

>>49984235
he got stopped out, no big deal

>>49986403
You seem pretty smart anon -- any suggested reading you would for someone who has a very crude understanding of money supply and markets? I guess I'm better off than the average normalfag but things like bond markets spook me. Open question to anyone in this thread btw, feel like there's a high concentrated of not retarded anons in here

>>49983927
Nigger these guys and the other fag Bond King has been wrong for 3 yers straight, don't get fooled by technical blabbering they are shit.

>>49987000
I always like contrarian viewpoints that have some support. When everyone is screaming that something is gonna happen, you should probably be curious and research it. Like the people who made tons of money shorting the housing market in 2008. Doesn't mean that "do the opposite of what the majority agrees" is a great business strategy though

>>49984797
Yeah Snider and Emil are amusing but they need to talk to more Truthers. Real economic analysis requires lots more red pills.

>>49984007
kitty cat meow meow?

Jesus on a similar note I'm listening to macro voices episode this week and I'm feeling totally defeated. Like I need to exit all markets and just wait for the fireworks. Like I've been dumb as hell to be buying. This is looking pretty grim. Tell me this 42 macro guy is a quack please

>>49989957
Fortune favors the brave, except when it doesn't.

>>49986151
Neck yourself

>>49985552
>Really? Source?
Emil talked about how he did 'nude dancing' in private homes in hollywood to make money. He claims he was living in hollywood to get a show business career going, in his words, trying to be the next Ryan Seacrest. He pinned a comment on the next video calling him out for being gay. Im too lazy to look up that video, maybe someone else can.

>>49984007
i wanna join the cat cult u cumlords

>>49990179
ok, I actually found the video where Emil pinned a comment about him being gay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gzqe5DFsJQ&lc=Ugw5WsK3LcgLVGC826R4AaABAg.9UN97yNcwtl9UNkBlZ4zif

>>49985251
jesus christ how embarrassing
>bald
>soi beard
>funko pops
literally a living meme
imagine taking financial advice from this fuckhead

>>49989957
which episodes?

>>49983927
>LONG BONDS
lel jej and kek

>>49984428
>you have to understand what's going on between usa and china and good luck with that. the key to that is the ukraine scenario, if that wraps up nicely then it means the elders of zion have chosen mercy.
So what you are saying is is its over and retrospectively has been over for years.

>>49990519
Most recent one with Darius Dale. Basically, a normal recession IS the bull case was his point. Meaning we are likely looking even worse. Biden being an old bitch doesn't help either

>>49983927
>le no inflation Jew
Can't wait until the CPI is higher again this month

>>49986403
>congress has stopped spending
lol
>Fed is hiking
can't do it forever because of debt load
>and starting QT
balance sheet is still increasing, QE hasn't ended
>Money supply is actually contracting.
source

>>49991266
i can't take it anymore please no more

>>49983927
>impractical jokers.png

>>49983927
I'm doing a pairs trade with TMF and TMV right now. It's like a high delta straddle that I can keep adjusting without theta decay. I think if you wanted to establish a 60/40 portfolio or something, 3.25-3.5 on the 10 yr should be a good entry

>>49992097
I just keep waiting for the 10yr to blow past 4. Once it does I think we are totally fucked

>>49985251
Holy fuck all credibility instantly lost
Someone inject some tren into this bastards balls asap

>>49992978
This that's a deal breaker. Would be based if it was nendos or something. Imagine making that much money and not being able to afford nendos