/biz/ - Business & Finance

What does it say anon?

what did you see bobo

>>50740880
im too lazy to do this, post some articles nigger

>>50740880
post some screenshots to make mumu squirm

i guess op was a faggot again

>>50740880
FINISH THE SENTENCE NIGGER

See for yourselves

https://www.google.com/search?q=recession&biw=1760&bih=850&sxsrf=ALiCzsbjVjIeZ_GiF-DNH8jWmyfEgcbPyQ%3A1659643764954&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A6%2F23%2F2008%2Ccd_max%3A9%2F1%2F2008&tbm=nws

>>50740880
ahem https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bluUxKIB4pA

Google "are we in a recession? before:2008. You can use before:date and after:date to filter results. Have fun.

>>50741707
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119784514764832443

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernanke-no-recession-on-horizon/

LMAO

>>50741800
HAHAHAHAHA

https://www.npr.org/2008/02/27/74992288/bernanke-sees-no-recession-but-big-challenge

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/02/business/02markets.html

>>50741800
Hearty kek bobo fren. I am also searching is there a housing bubble? Before:2007

>>50740880
I have full days of CNBC recorded for late May/early June 2008 at the height of the last bounce before the big plunge. It is very enlightening viewing. I recommend fully immersing yourself in it, bathing in its perverse bullishness.

>>50741924
lol
lmao

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-yieldcurve-idUSN3018493920080130

>>50741890
Those read like articles I'd read today, holy fuck. This is great.

>>50741890
>The money quote: "The most immediate risks to the housing market now come from the rise in interest rates, the erosion of affordability after years of strong house price appreciation, and the growing inventory of both new and existing homes for sale. But unless the broader economy stumbles and job losses mount, home sales and construction activity will likely dip only modestly.
https://www.salon.com/2006/06/13/thehousingbubbleblog/

>>50741800
>>50741884
>>50741924
>>50741957
>>50742036
it's literally the exact same fucking script holy fuck lmao and the market keeps falling for it

i-i-it's different this time! we had c-covid 19 remember?

>>50743344
checked
THEY CREATED SOOOO MANY JOBS!!
it literally CAN'T be a recession

>>50741800
>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernanke-no-recession-on-horizon/

The direction of rates, the Fed said at the time, hinges on what incoming barometers say about the economy and inflation. Bernanke repeated that point on Wednesday.
[data dependent]

"I do want to emphasize we have not shifted away from an inflation bias," Bernanke said.
[FED is committed to fighting inflation]

On another topic, Bernanke said the growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn't appear to be spreading to the overall economy. "At this juncture ... the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained," he said.
[we're not in a recession]

Even so, Bernanke stuck with the Federal Reserve's assessment that the economy is likely to grow at a moderate pace over the coming quarters. He also repeated the Fed's belief that inflation also should ease in the months ahead, but he warned that underlying inflation remains "uncomfortably high."
[inflation is too high, but its transitory]

On the other hand, consumers, who proved "quite resilient" despite the housing slump and increases in energy prices, could continue to keep spending at a pace that would make the economy grow faster than currently expected, he said. And, there are other forces, including a still-good jobs market that is producing fatter paychecks, that could push up inflation.
[consumer strong, unemployment low - not a recession]

https://grabien.com/story.php?id=387659
based Pelosi ready to print money and BTFD in 2008

>>50743292
Nothin personnel, mumus.

>>50741884
>February 27, 2008
Huh

I died that day

>>50742068
Kekkkk

>>50742068
>Personally, I think it would be great if there would be a soft landing. I think that a hard landing will be a pretty sobering thing.
AHAHAHAHAHA

>>50744178
but if you died in 2008, then who was phone?

Honestly reading some of that made me realize how much more retarded modern financial press is. At least these people tried to make an argument for their bullish cases, now they just tell you to trust the science

>>50740880
They used to show the faces of black criminals back them

>>50744475
>raleigh
best thing i ever did was leave NC. niggers are starting to take over the whole state.

>>50744475
Oy vey, those racist goyim didn't even photoshop the mugshots to lighten the perps' skin tone. It's anudda shoa

>>50743292
Wait until mumus see SPY 2022 YTD to SPY 2007/8

>>50740880
seeing a good bobo thread just reaffirms the feeling of disgust I have for the leddit 3rd world newfags

ITS ALL THE SAME BOBROS ITS ALL THE FUCKING SAME HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>resilient, strong consumer despite increasing energy prices meme
>strong labor market meme
>small slowdown in mortgages meme

>>50744473
They just scream "priced in" now.

>>50743424
We are stuck into an eternal talmudic loop of a lying judeocracy abusing us over and over again, and all the normies hylics with the attention span of goldfishes.
I wouldn't be surprised if all of history is complete bullshit and the entire history of mankind resume to jews scamming goyim with
>inflation gud
>not in a recession, gentiles!
>be diverse and inclusive, or else..

We are in literal Hell. Right in the middle of the Sheol.

>>50743292
Where is the contagion threat this time?

>>50742068
>>50745764
>>50744473
If only you knew how comfy things are about to be

what were the newspapers saying in 1929?

>>50740880
read deez nutz, bitch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj8rMwdQf6k

Real talk bobo bros since were the real ogs. What are your plans in August? I am actually long right now because I think this relief rally is gonna pump more, but Im selling everything and preparing my shorts come september. We all know what happens to crypto every september plus the whole shemitah thing. Would like to hear your opinions

>>50746429
i'm just a poorfag who wants capitalism to collapse

>>50746517
Youre in the wrong board commie faggot how about you get a job and learn to invest to stop being poor or at least become middle class instead of a vile worm that wants to drag everyone down to his level

>>50745764
>BOBROS
Is it even bearish to call out the coming depression? It just seems like its the actually ground vs living in fantasy rather than bull or bear. The animals seem to be more about what's going to happen after the shoes drop. Like its bullish to sell the house now to buy low after while bearish to keep it because there's no guarantee against further societal collapse and a home is a home.

>>50740880
So, do we need to sell now?

>>50745944
It is going to work slightly differently this time. It is not going to be about the interconnected global financial system because a lot of effort went into making it more resilient. This time it is about China, US and Europe going into a recession together so there is no global growth possible at all. A decade of easy money everywhere that suddenly stopped will feed into the procyclical forces and bring everything down together so the liquidity will dry up that way. And the geopolitical risks mean we might get a proper breakdown of international sea trade.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-recession-idUSTRE4B05YX20081201

So, we all know the NBER is somehow the sole entity which dictates our being in a recession: they didn't choose to say so until most of the damage was done, near early December. The markets bottomed early March of 2009.

I'm a faggot zoomer but this is retarded

>>50747086
When they acknowledge there is a recession is actually a bottom signal.

>>50745944
deglobalization and eurodollar debt which cannot be paid by negative growth due to effects of deglobalization
the entire dollar system becomes toxic as emerging markets collapse, and this leads to shortages and persistent inflation for just about everything in developed nations

>>50747135
Covid-19 really reshaped how I saw the news as a tool of propaganda. I had the sentiment, but it was a given. It's horrifying when you can see the power it holds over people's realities.

In reference to the whole 'US gov't redefining recession debacle, I wondered if Snopes had written an article with a big red stamp, 'FALSE'.
Of course it was false. They wedge in a 'muh Trump' bit as if that is some kind of reinforcement.

>The original article
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/

"While SOME maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition NOR THE WAY ECONOMISTS EVALUATE the state of the business cycle."

The ambiguity as to whether one can claim they changed the definition or not lends them to use doublethink to their advantage. There is the difference, as seen below, between a general, and a practical definition
However, we can say they are LYING when they say economists do not use that defining factor.

See related,
1. from the IMF in 2007: "MOST [economic] COMMENTATORS AND ANALYSTS use, as a PRACTICAL DEFINITION of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real [GDP]."
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/recess.htm

2. from the Harvard Business Review in 2007: "DEFINED as two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP, the last official recession happened in the fourth quarter of 1990 and the first quarter of 1991."
https://hbr.org/2007/10/dear-gen-y-heres-how-to-weathe

3. from a 2006 MIT coursework answer sheet for macroeconomics: see picrel. Note the 'practical definition' has been used to attribute False to the first question.
http://web.mit.edu/14.02/www/S06/ps1soln.pdf

This is just scraping the surface.

>>50746429
I have started to scale short with long dated puts as VIX is low thus vol is cheap, but also anticipating this rally can go 6-10% further which I will scale into
I throw in the towel if we hold above 14.4k on NDX

>>50744475
You don't understand anon,

Those shitty ads on the right hand side take me to a better place. Back when flash games were frequently developed and you could shoot niggers on coolmath games.

something interesting WRT "strong workforce", aside from the fact that an increasing amount of part time jobs account for 'low unemployment'

>>50745944
>contagion threat
Crypto and China. Both ponzis are already collapsing

"yield curve inversion" before:2008 after:2005

>>50745895
>I wouldn't be surprised if all of history is complete bullshit
Pretty spot on post and yeah, feels like we were born into the Jewish matrix with every passing day. My childhood seems like an alternate reality in contrast to this hell.

>>50747299
>"While SOME maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition NOR THE WAY ECONOMISTS EVALUATE the state of the business cycle."
They keep using this line of reasoning and then never follow it up with what the technical definition is, nor what the real experts use as the metrics for determining such things. Would be amusing if it weren't such an obvious way to deflect the reality of the global economy.

>>50748539

Bernanke Mar 2006: The tightening cycle that began at the end of June 2004 is notable in at least four respects. First, its onset was delayed for longer than many observers expected. The FOMC kept policy unusually accommodative for an extended, or should I say for a considerable, period.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm

How do I profit? I already lost s bunch of money trying to be a bear but I'm willing to try again

>still strong jobs market

How will it end this time?

>>50740880
nice thread OP this is fascinating

>>50745944
Canada's housing bubble as well. There are plenty of places contagion can occur. Don't fool yourself into thinking any problems were solved from the last recession.

>>50741957
>Other economic signals were flashing good times, so why was this sign of gloom making an unwelcome appearance? A solution emerged: dismiss the trend, and find reasons why things were different this time.

>>50741161
>>50741707
uuhhh mumu's bro's?

>>50745895
>We are stuck into an eternal talmudic loop of a lying judeocracy abusing us over and over again

>>50740880
BOBO WHAT DO YOU SEE

>>50747307
I've got the exact same strategy. I call it my "Shemitah Puts" allocation, and it's going to be 20% of my portfolio thru the end of Elul (September for goys).

Also, don't forget this year 5782 is a "super Shemitah", meaning next year is the Jubilee year. Kind of interesting how we are right in the edge of a major recession where the only reactions will be hyperinflation or complete collapse.

>>50748668
Bernanke Mar 2006 after the yield curve inverted before the 2008 financial crisis:

>What is the relevance of this scenario for today? Although macroeconomic forecasting is fraught with hazards, I would not interpret the currently very flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come, for several reasons. First, in previous episodes when an inverted yield curve was followed by recession, the level of interest rates was quite high, consistent with considerable financial restraint. This time, both short- and long-term interest rates--in nominal and real terms--are relatively low by historical standards.5 Second, as I have already discussed, to the extent that the flattening or inversion of the yield curve is the result of a smaller term premium, the implications for future economic activity are positive rather than negative.6 Finally, the yield curve is only one of the financial indicators that researchers have found useful in predicting swings in economic activity. Other indicators that have had empirical success in the past, including corporate risk spreads, would seem to be consistent with continuing solid economic growth. In that regard, the fact that actual and implied volatilities of most financial prices remain subdued suggests that market participants do not harbor significant reservations about the economic outlook.

>>50746429
I sold too early a week ago and kinda don't know what to do now. Do I buy back in higher and sell, or just wait for the pump to be over?

>>50745944
>>50746988
Impressive
>>50748829
>1929

Does the chart look familiar?

>>50744044
someone has to take care of breaking my ambitions, I've already dreamed too much about qom, it's time for a little wake up call

>>50749381
Pump should be over tomorrow.
Sunday is Tisha B'Av so next week we should have more clarity.

>>50749448
Classic pump before the weekend, huh. I hope volume dies down so it's easier to predict.

>>50741957
>yield

So persuasive was the newfound consensus on the curve’s waning powers as forecasting tool that The Conference Board, an economic research firm, gave it less weight when calculating its Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

priced in
the entire meme of POST-2008 was "boohoo: you told us it would be fine".

you are too stupid to expect history to repeat itself in less than 20 years; history does repeat itself sometime; but never in such a brainlet and simplistic way that any retard could google in 4 seconds.

>>50743424
>Ben Shalom Bernanke (/bərˈnæŋki/ bər-NANG-kee; born December 13, 1953) is an American economist who served as the 14th chair of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014. After leaving the Fed, he is a di…

>Shalom

EVERY. SINGLE. FUCKING. TIME.

>>50745764
Holy shit. They say strong labor market today too

>>50740880
>>50741800
>>50745764
priced in
the entire meme of POST-2008 was "boohoo: you told us it would be fine".

you are too stupid to expect history to repeat itself in less than 20 years; history does repeat itself sometimes; but never in such a brainlet and simplistic way that any retard could google in 4 seconds.

>>50749511
Oh boy you underestimate the retardness of people

>>50749511
>new paradigm!

>>50749498
Salam!

>>50749571
>>50749575
People are retards, but that retardation has limitations. Something that happened less than 20 years ago and every single tv channel in the world spammed 24/7: is way beyond that level.

Maybe you're just babies.

Anyone above the age of 30-35: remembers the cries about it like it was yesterday.

What do i short and when?

>>50749611
>the ramblings of a lunatic

>>50749637
> the scribblings of a child with no arguments

>>50743424
>On another topic, Bernanke said the growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn't appear to be spreading to the overall economy. "At this juncture ... the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained," he said.
>[we're not in a recession]

lmaoing
he had been cooking up reasons for why shit was fine for over 2 years before shit hit the fan. interesting read below

March 20, 2006
Reflections on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

Before the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm

>>50749645
We are not in 2006, we're in 2008. What did they say during the relief rally?

>>50749645
you are worse than extremist leftists talking about "vibecesion". the wording being similar is irrelevant since the central banks always use the same wording no matter what anyway.

the 2008 crisis was purely a derivatives crisis and you have to look into that specifically to see if it has similarities.

EXCEPT

THERE IS NO CREDIT ISSUE THIS TIME, BANKS WERE STRESS TESTED AND ALL PASSED

NICE TRY BOBO

>>50749676
household debt? layoffs?

>>50749511
>it can't happen again
The words of a man caught off guard by it happening again

>>50749690
> the words of a child with no arguments

>>50749689
every downturn doesnt have to be 2008 anon

>>50749692
I don't argue with retards, I point them out to laugh at.

>>50749611
And how donthe cries stop it from happening again retard? People didnt understand what happened back then (otherwise they could have stoppednit no?) and they dont see it now, people are blinded by profits

This whole thread isnthe best proof you can get, "experts" and economists literally say the same thing now than back then, they have no idea

Haha, u're losing ur money on the shit and then cry on 4ch on every topic. Be smarter, kids, check Yopi Network

> New digital evolution of online earning cash
> 33%-49%-66% APY / 30-60-90 days lock
> Pay contactless globally with a single app

This recession is different because its extremely expected.

People are saving money and companies are already preemptively laying people off which is just going to slow down the bleeding.

But they need shit to get pretty bad before inflation stops...People act like we need people to sell their homes. The real challenge is people keeping their homes when unemployment goes up to 10%.

But even then, eventually the fed has to rebuke and start the ponzi printing scheme up again because they have no option not to.

>>50749740
this time the ponzi breaks

>>50749702
You are a baby. All the normies were spammed 24/7 that it was a derivative crisis and that the big banks did not prepare us and everything.

Just because you were unborn or a toddler back then it doesn't mean most normies aren't fully aware of obvious stuff from 2008.

>>50749740
>But even then, eventually the fed has to rebuke and start the ponzi printing scheme up again because they have no option not to.
or the west begins to settle into the inevitable "developed but far poorer - closer to high-end developing azn country" levels of wealth. i think this is now going to be especially true of europe and the wider west. the us may get by another cycle or two.

>>50749740
It's also possible that absolutely nothing (crisis-worthy) will happen for the next 10 years. There's a lot of cash around, but also the central banks made it hard to borrow so there is little incentive to spend it all fast and there's little incentive to get more fast.

>>50743424
>consumer strong
Funny, I work for an investment bank and first email I open this morning is a 'are we in a recession' analysis. "While GPD has shrunk for 2 consecutive quarters, it would be 'strange' to classify the first half of the year - a period marked by a booming job market - as a recession"
We really live in talmudic times.

I shitpost so much but I sincerely hope really bad things do not happen and hope everyone is alright in the end. A silly wish but I still do. Stay safe and build a rainy plan just in case my bros.

>>50750226
the people do not deserve this. it's very evil.

>>50750263
People don't deserve so much, I really wish we lived in a perfect world.

Don’t Sweat the Inverted Yield Curve: No One Really Knows What It Means - Jan 25, 2006


https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/dont-sweat-the-inverted-yield-curve-no-one-really-knows-what-it-means/

>>50741161
oh no no no no

>>50743292
Nothing personnel kiddo

>>50746517
Your kind don't belong here, boy

>>50749511
>any retard could google in 4 seconds.
But those retards are busy debating tranny in schools and gender pronouns.

>>50750291
“I think it sometimes portends a recession, sometimes not,” says Marshall E. Blume, finance and management professor at Wharton. This time, it probably does not, he adds. “All the forecasts are quite favorable. There aren’t any real excesses in the economy at the current time, and you usually think of recession as a tonic to the economy, to undo excess.”

Lots of coping bobos in this thread, there is no threat to the system like the 2008 crash had. There will be no crash or recession, you had a 20% dump on SPY and a dump to 17k BTC.
You bobos are the greediest pieces of shit in the world and refused this amazing buying opportunity.

>>50750412
>ignoring the international debt crisis

>>50741170
>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernanke-no-recession-on-horizon/

I was there, following it closely. When it spread to my country I went down to my and was unable to get cash out. A year later it was clear they where 15 minutes from insolvency...

If similar things happen again, it's game over...

>>50745944
Read up on the Great Depression but replace USA with China and stock market with real estate

>>50743292
That means that markets will plummet next year it.
So there won't be any bullrun for the next couple of years?

>>50749676
what happens if there's an economic slowdown and businesses lay people off? does this stress test account for the massive amount of mortgages issued over the past year when housing prices ran up 25-50%?

>>50745944
luna

>>50749720
This bot has been running for over a year and they still couldn't be bothered to fix the English. lmao.

>>50749676
>1998: SEA collapses
>2000: massive tech sector collapse
>2008: massive banking collapse
>2022: massive sovereign debt [government] collapse
your move

>>50749611
Sweet, sweet mumu cope.

>>50749642
And where’s your evidence except your ramblings? You’re peak midwit, post your portfolio so I can do the opposite

>>50745944
Citadel Securities
>assets sold not yet purchased

>>50740880
>reading through news on google
you believe in what they haven't scrubbed?

>>50753267
The fun part about google is that they don't know what to scrub until it's time to scrub it. They weren't prepared to redefine "recession" and flood the top results with "totally not a recession u gaiz!!!!1" articles until they were told that's what they were doing.

>>50749611
>People remember the dot com bubble bro. Stocks only up from here.
>Bro we just had a world war
Reality has no obligation to conform to your midwit conception of how far apart two events should be from eachother

I'm getting Lehman vibes from Credit Suisse lately.

>>50749611
>Anyone above the age of 30-35: remembers
*BARELY anyone
Bear-ly?
Illuminarty confirmed amogus *xfiles theme*

>>50749661
>the 2008 crisis was purely a derivatives crisis
yes goy, believe the official narrative, we sanctioned pedowood to spoonfeed it to you after all
shalom out nyegga

>>50749833
Are you mentally challenged? In the sight of profits people dont care, and are you actually thinking a normie knows whats going on in the background of the banking industry, they might know it was a derative crksis back then but wouldnt recognise onr even if it stood right before them right now, people buy fagman stocks, tesla, properties and dont see any problem with it, number go always up

>>50749833
My parents literally lost hundreds of thousands of their retirement monies betting on tech options. (I explicitly told them options can provide useful leverage, but WILL go to 0 if there's a recession/contraction).

absolutely delusional bobo cope. you can seethe, you can dilate, but you will never buy the bottom you missed, and all your shorts will be liquidated.

>>50754224
if you so hate "the jews", you give them a lot of freedom, by denying the fact the cunts made fortunes from the derivatives fiasco.

this is why I shorted everything. I'm going to be rich