/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>50972268
instant million and put it all in icp that's it i'm set for life

I'll take the chance that gives me enough money to get into an significantly better position, thank you very much. I'm not stupid and greedy enough to flip a coin on a big opportunity.

b obviously

>>50972268
>gamble
>don't gamble

which button I press would depend on my networth. If I already have like $5 Million I would press the $50 Million button. If I'm broke I would press the $1 Million button.

>>50972268
Lets see, a free million dollars or 50% chance to kill myself. Hmm

>>50972268
Well...... it's actually an interesting question. Based on pure value the green button is worth 25x more (50% of 50 million). But if you have good investing prospects and low income, it may be better to just take the 1 million, if this is the best chance you'll ever have of reaching that amount of money. Then it may just be better to invest that one million in two x5s/x10s.

>>50972284
This essentially thats my goal, but I've a long way to go.

>>50972268
imagine picking a 50% chance at getting nothing

>>50972268
This looks like Twitter? So the guy's "Mathematics" is actually just him trying to show off that he can divide by two, his correct answer is green.

Mention the words "risk tolerance" and "marginal utility of money" to Twitter Math dimwits and they'll turn to fucking glass.

Would you give me a 75% chance of $15 mill?

>>50972268
only a midwit would pick green

>>50972268
I'm fully aware that B is a much higher EV and the "correct" choice from an investing pov, but the 50% chance it doesn't happen would psychologically destroy me, so I would probably take the $1mil. If I was more financially stable I would be going option B

>>50972268
The mentality that would make you pick green is the same mentality that would make you lose all your money within a decade.

The 1 Million is guaranteed, are you willing to risk $1 million dollars for $50 million.

>spend 5 minutes writing out a long reply thinking ill be championing an unpopular opinion and will feel like a genius
>fail the captcha 4 times and refresh page
>10 replies more succinct than mine

>>50972375
Or someone who is already 7+ figure net worth and may as well go for broke.

>>50972372
*Taps Sign*
> DO NOT HAGGLE WITH THE MEMES

1 million is literally nothing
obvious gamble

>>50972268
>1pbtid

>>50972268
putting $1m into dividend stocks would get ya an extra $50k a year.
For most people this would double their income and be lifechanging, would practically pay for a house too.

$50m would be fun but probably ruin your life

>>50972391
>I'm fully aware that B is a much higher EV and the "correct" choice from an investing pov,
No, you fucking idiot.
You are supposed to take guaranteed profit instead of gambling like a degenerate.

>>50972524

What exactly do you think rich people do? They don't settle for peanuts every trade, they do a cost/benefit analysis and then take their shot.

Say you got to hit this button 10 times. Probabilistically speaking you get $10m from red and $250m from green. That's what he means by +EV, this concept underpins all forms of investing, sports betting, games like poker.

>>50972268
>>50972524
The correct answer deppends on your current networth.
If A is 5-10% of your current networth: go with B (doesn't move the needle, change your life, etc.)
> 10% of current networth? A
Nearly all anons here should choose A

>>50972566
>What exactly do you think rich people do?
Inside trade, you enormous moron.

>>50972458
kek

>>50972375
>only a midwit would pick green
>>50972444
>Or someone who is already 7+ figure net worth and may as well go for broke.
This. An additional $1 million would not significantly improve my financial situation.
$50 million is future-proof.

>>50972566
>cost/benefit analysis and then take their shot.
>Say you got to hit this button 10 times

you don't get to hit it 10 times you only get to hit the button once. And getting a guaranteed $1m is life changing amount. If it was 1k versus 50k then sure hit the green

>>50972613
The only folks that should consider B should have networth 10-20m already. 1m is 5-10% of networth.
Any anon with any networth lower that does not take guaranteed $ is insane.

>>50972268
Nice flawed question.

1 Press:
Profit Factor: undefined
Profit Factor: undefined

2 Presses:
Profit Factor: infinite
Profit Factor: 1

Red wins

>>50972268
If you're already rich then B is a nobrainer, but for poorfags A is a better option.

I'm obviously going to take the $1 million. Even with inflation you don't need $50 million to be happy. A million will do. A million will do.

>>50972327
still completely wrong based on the very premise of the question.
But then again these types of questions are dreamed up by jewish academics because they enjoy training people to go against their natural instincts (cost of loss > joy of winning, making most prefer the red button despite the green button being a 25x better deal)

>>50972626

life changing for you maybe. i'm stuck in 8 figure hell so i'd hit the green all day long

>>50972284
>icp

>>50972626

$1m isn't life changing for everyone... duh. $50m puts you among the ranks of the legitimately rich, $1m just sets you up for a comfortable retirement. Green is the better deal objectively, whether it's worth taking a shot on it is up to your discretion of course, but that wasn't the question on +EV.

>>50972599

thanks for sharing, it's all like the movies you're right

>>50972750
anon gets it.

>>50972750
>>50972711
it's not real, there is no button and no million dollars. you are still poor. Sorry, back to real life. It's time to get ready and leave for work

>>50972268
I will sell my button push to a Jew for $24.5 million

Assuming this game gives me the right to press either the red or green button without having to choose immediately. I would auction off the right to press the buttons. From someone rich for whom 1m isn’t life changing money I could expect to get equal or less than 25m$.

>>50972842
>Assuming this game
>Assuming
Midwit detected.
The answer is ez and now we all know you have very little $

>>50972729
100% of changing your life vs 50% chance

i'd choose the green button and sell it for ~$15m to another investor hat has the capability to get insurance/re-insurance on losing the bet

>>50972268
I would take the million with no hesitation. In practical terms, that's all I would need to have security for life. I'm nowhere near horny enough for yachts to throw that away.

>>50972268
I'm in 6-figure hell, so I'd take the guaranteed 1M. "Le expected gain" midwits don't understand the utility function of money isn't linear and depends on circumstance.

>>50972268
>50% chance at $50 mil
That would be life changing the $1 mil would be nice but not a big difference for me.

>>50972891
I forget there's people on /biz/ who still aren't millionaires yet kek

>>50972566
> What exactly do you think rich people do?
Live off dividends.

If they weren't rich and had that offer, they look at the 1M and think, "Instant pension, I'll take it."

>>50972999
Checked and witnessed. How do i profit from this?

>>50972443
I know the feeling.

A million and all in chainlink immediately with 25k set aside for cigars and hookers in Osaka until linkies make it

>>50972996
>get 50m
>set up legal trust
>hire CPAs
>hire tax specialists
>family finds out
>always begging
>you accidentally die
>fortune gone in 1 generation

>>50973026

You don't get rich by settling for the bad deal idiot

>>50972268
this is a pure math problem, it has nothing to do with investing.
when investing, there is no choice between buttons. there is one button that contains in it both social problems and math problems, inextricably intertwined.
you press and hold the one button, and the longer you hold it, the more opportunities you have to start compounding small piles of money. you do not know when they come, or in what number, only that if you hold the button they will come. you know well the small piles of money that keep coming and you can control that, but the opportunities you don't know the timing or character, you know only that you must hold the button.
when you let go of the button, you will never start compounding again, even if you continue to earn small piles of money, but you do not have to do anything about the compounding that has already been running. those piles never go away until you pick them up and use them.
if you even see any other button and think it is also an investing button, you are not an investor. all the other buttons you can see, you can only speculate with.
holding the one button is: reading, understanding, learning, and gathering wisdom and insight.

>>50972313
fpbp

>>50973062
>how poor people think
And this thinking keeps you poor

>>50972879
Are 2 digit iq retards really so scared of the a word?

>>50972268
the one on the right and it's not even close

Is there any rule against pressing both buttons simultaneously? It said you only get one press, not necessarily that you could only press one button.

>>50972268
I would go for an instant million and invest in different coins like Xpress that is a one-stop solution. I'd also add ICX, which is interconnecting blockchains. Some alts to consider are vet, iost, atom, iris, and drep OP.

>>50972313
>>50972313
>>50972313
>>50972313

>>50973230
>And this thinking keeps you poor

it's personal experience from family members who inherited that much. Gaining that sort of wealth without a strong financial aptitude will be a curse. Your kids will be hipsters and hippies, your wife will never be satisfied buying shit, your kids will dream of opening restaurants or businesses and blow it all. The best thing to do with 50m is put it in property and dividends and pretend it's not there

>>50972313
factual factoid

>>50973416
>without a strong financial aptitude will be a curse
I'm a finance executive so I think I'd manage. I also don't have a problem telling entitled family members to fuck off. I already have practice with that as well.

>>50973416

You're supposed to train your kids to be world-beaters, give them a spartan, austere upbringing, and then when they're finally ready you give them the funding to go get rich themselves

>>50972268
Obviously the math says the 50% chance for 50mil is the correct answer, but some people don't want to take that risk and would rather take the 1mil and retire off that.

>>50972268
$1M is enough for me so I'll take $1M

>>50972444

>>50972268
I will press the green one 2 times

>>50972268
Lets see...
>oooh maybe i retire a few years early
vs.
>generational wealth that almost nobody events gets a chance at, never mind 50%

Fucking retarded obviously you pick green. God gave you the opportunity, are you going to waste it?

>>50973560
$1M would retire me right now,

>>50972729
Bro if you work at fucking Walmart with 3 kids you take the $1mil because there’s no chance you get there without it and you’ll be haunted about losing the opportunity of you don’t get the $50mil
For someone like me I’d take the risk on the $50mil because getting to $1mil is easily in my cards

$1M

>>50973583
I'm guessing you have no big plans for the future anon.

>>50972566
This is correct.
If the deal in OP were offered to ten people, then they should unionize and agree to all hit green and share whatever profits come their way.
I've thought about this in the past with Who Wants to be a Millionaire. People get a 1/4 chance of guessing the final answer (EV 250,000) but only getting 32k if they are wrong.

>>50972327
Every magnate started out with a “small loan of a million $$$”. Which is usually the hardest part to reach. So yeah, I’ll take the instant money and invest it appropriately

>>50973620
what do you mean big plans? I don't care about driving a ferrarii and having a huge mansion. I just want a small farm and some land so I can be self sustainable. I'll be happy with that I don't need to take take take and be a wealthy consoomer.

>>50973674
But it’s not, you just press a button and you have to pick which one. That’s it.

>>50973746
I mean you have no plans to pass on much at all to your kids. You're on 4chan so I assume you're about 30. Let's say you live another 40 years in retirement and have 5 kids. After buying your farm, raising them, paying your taxes until you die, you're passing on to them... probably not a whole lot.

>>50972268
red is right choice if you're poor
green is right choice if you're not
simple as

>>50973790
i'll pass them a farm and 2 houses i'll inherit and a piece of land i'll inherit, plus unknown amount of money. But all that is irrelevant, you know what I will pass my children? wisdom, teachings. I'll teach them not to be wankers, i'll make them understand the traps of life. I'll teach my sons and daughters how to be healthy, how to develop maximally and optimally. and I don't need 50 million for that ok. I don't need any money for that I just need TIME. you can go chase mega millions like a fuckin tard if you want. God waits at the end and will give you a good judgement.

>>50972327
Stupid "logic".
Let's consider another case.
Which would you pick out of
>100% chance of $1,000,000
> 0.1% chance of $1,000,000,001
Remember, you only get 1 pick. Technically, option 2 is better (according to your logic) by maybe $0.001, so you'd pick that?

>>50973846
It sounds like the $1M doesn't really make any kind of a big difference and you're just missing a whole lot of value by choosing the sure thing over the 50/50.

>>50973846
>god will punish you for choosing the 25x higher EV option

>>50972268
I don't like to think too much about things so i would punch the green one

what is kelly criterion

I'll press B every single time.

>>50973880
I rather take the $1M cause i can do everything I want with it.

>>50973904
you forget there is a 50pct chance you will not get the $50M. pleb. I have played poker a lot.

>>50973790
Xmr posters don't have children

>>50973904
$1M would grant me freedom just like $50M would grant me freedom. i'll have the same freedoms with both options. I don't need stupid yachts, boats, lambos, i don't need to eat gold plattered steak, etc etc. do you understand?

for me the odds are all that is important. the two buttons are both "press to get freedom" and one is a 100pct win and one is a 50pct win

>>50972268
It honestly depends on how much money you have
If i have under 500k i would take the mil, otherwise i would risk the green

>>50973966
if i had forgotten that, i would have said the ev was 50x higher, pleb

>>50974029
this is the only answer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox

>>50974040
then you are just greedy. one of the major sins. byerino

>>50972268
The relative value of reducing uncertainty is greater than the marginal utility of the extra 49MM.

>Think of it this way, just keep adding zeros but keeping the same ratio; 100% 1 bil vs 50% 50 bil.
> Or lets look at actual billionaires; would you rather have a 50% chance of having Elon musk wealth (250B) or 100% chance of having jack Dorsey wealth (5B)
>At a certain point, the 50% reduction in uncertainty is greater to your own benefit than the extra potential money is

>Learn undergrad level economics

>>50972327
>50% chance for 50 million, with no hastle or stress.
Or
>Take 1 million, and invest it in a moonshot for a chance at maybe getting 10 million, or lose it all anyway. Have to manage the investment and stress over it until it either crashes or moons, and then time your exit perfect.
Ask me how I know you are poor?

>>50972268
It's purely a matter of risk tolerance, so the question is fucking stupid. If I already have infinite money, of course I do the second one.

>>50972313
Very much this

I don't care about money, so I pick green.

>>50972268
>insider trading button vs. idiot with an investment app button
HMMMMMM...

Well red means warning and danger so probably green

>>50973773
The OP doesn't stipulate how many people are being offered. FWIW I'd take the red button

>>50972268
depends if i already had a million or not

>>50972284
>how to turn 1 million into 100 bucks

If this ridiculous horse shit doesn't calm down soon, I am actually going to fucking lose it IRL

>>50973326
One stop solution is common and can't even see a good product long term

WHENEVER DEMOCRATS GET TO TOUCH ANYTHING, IT'S JUST COMPLETELY FUCKING FAKE EVERY OTHER YEAR AND THEN EVERY FOUR YEARS THEY JUST GO FULL ON GESTAPO STALIN MODE IT'S SO FUCKING RIDICULOUS
I CAN'T WAIT UNTIL FAGGOT MIDTERMS ARE OVER AND I HOPE WE VOTE LOTS AND LOTS OF COMMIE FAGGOT ASSHOLES OUT OF OFFICE FOR MAKING LIFE FAKE FOR ANYONE WHO ISN'T A COMMIE FUCKING FAGGOT

>>50974108
This. B is the only correct answer. 1 mil is not enough to do shit. Trust me I know.

>>50972443
This is exactly why i like this place so much.

>>50974289
maybe in JewMerica it isn't.

1mil isn't significant enough for me as I already make over 200k, I would press green.

>>50972313
>which button I press would depend on my networth
this. imagine playing the game with $100 vs potentially $5000 or $10M vs $500M

>>50974051
back ti reddirino faggit

>>50974500
backtothewagecageforyou

>>50974531
stop projecting, EVlet. I'm relaxing in my home office studying geography because I'm retired at 25 because I understand what is a good investment and what isn't.
>INB4 you blaspheme against god again by using his name to condemn others

>>50972268

I'd press the 1 million. Buy a house cash, and invest the other 700$k

50% chance 50mil obviously
1mil is nothing, not worth the effort to press the button

>>50972772
>thanks for sharing, it's all like the movies you're right
Are you implying that elites insider trading isnt true?

>>50973587
>Bro if you work at fucking Walmart with 3 kids
If you apply for Walmart as a parent of 3 without going for skilled labor, you need more than $1milly. You need to reassess your priorities in life because that 1 million will disappear.

>>50972268
1 million is better than zero

>>50972268
A rich person would probably pick green, they could just earn the $1m through interest. But I'm not rich or talented so I'll press RED thank you very much!

>>50972268
50% chance, obviously.

>>50972268
If I already had a milly I click green.
If I dont, I click red.
Simple as. Every other answer is NGMI.

>>50972268
Press the green button 10 times.
This gives me a 99.9991235% probability of getting at least $50 millions

>>50972284
>icp
kek enjoy losing all your money I guess

>>50972268
Id have to press the green button. Gonna use a coinflip app now…

>>50974993
…aaaaand I fucking lost. Would press the green button again tho if given the chance.

0-4 I made 50 million, 5-9 I made nothing
rolling

>>50972268
Risk or risk averse are both valid strats. Risk is fun so I take risk.

>>50972268
Press a random button. Only 25% chance to lose

>>50975055
There are 3 outcomes how did you get 25 percent?
>50m yes
>50m no
>1m yes

>>50972268
The red one, then buy SIGA

>>50975029
you now see the issue with gambling right anon?

>>50975106
are you serious? P(loss) = 1-P(win)
P(winning 1 million) = 0.5 * 1
P(winning 50 million) = 0.5 (chance of selecting button B) * 0.5 (50/50 chance of winning)

1 - 0.75 = 0.25

This board is going down the toilet so fast

>>50972315
this. it's not just a mathematics problem, it's psychological. if I already had ~$2m or more in liquid funds I'd have to try my luck with the green button but as a poorfag I wouldn't want to risk the 50% suicide inducing failure

>>50972769
i love this hardworking soijack so much

>>50972268
it's the red button

green button has a negative ev:
50% of the time you lose $51m
50% of the time you win $50m

>>50972284
Poor fag shilling shit. Instead of your icp I prefer xpress and dydx a million times to it. Fuck off.

You should have let us know you wanted to turn 1 mill to 1 k.

>>50975286
>are you serious?
Yes, that's why I asked.
>This board is going down the toilet so fast
Look, you made it slightly better by spreading knowledge, thanks for explaining and then you immediately made it worse by crying about it. Good job.
>inb4 muh expectations
No one cares. It's 4chan you get what you get.

>>50972313
Kek, I like your strategy but in this case is quite different from the instance you are bringing on-board.

1 mil every single time, not even a question about it. i can easily build my portfolio up from there.

green easy
starting from $0
most people can make $1m working 25 years
no one can make 50m unless you're an entertainer

>>50975286
Well done Anon. Well explained.

>>50975214
Nah

>>50975286
kek

This shit never works for me so red.

>>50975485
You don't wanna take chances?

>>50972268
Anyone choosing A is either retarded or poor.

>>50972373
Lmao this exactly

>>50972268
as a pure gamble, excluding any psychological factors, the green button has a positive expectation of $24 million: 0.5*50mill (expectation of winning) - 1mill (the amount you're leaving on the table by not choosing red)

>>50975653
I'm both and also not greedy and extremely unlucky. It could be a 99% chance at 50m and I'd still lose.

>>50972772
Where the hell are you living where 1M$ isn't life changing bud? lmao.

Anyway anon I'll take the 1mill and split it into BTC, ETH and MATIC equally. BTC is a store of value, ETH is incredible and Polygon is making sure ETH remains incredible. Other shit isn't making it.

>>50972268
Call a rich person and get them to sell you insurance on the flip guaranteeing you some kind of minimum.

>>50975731
Imagine being a devoted /biz/cel and not having at least a few million tucked away. Like what are you even doing with your life? Do you just get off on candle charts? Go post on /ck/ or something, fuck.

>>50974244
I agree with that anon, but CryptoXpress is different and they're aiming to be the first bank in the metaverse. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw more users in the long run.

>>50972268
Red if I'm the only one to press.
Green if we're several to get a chance, then we can agree by contract for everyone to share the total gains.

>1M = 100%
>-1% = 1M

I don't understand why this is labelled as mathematics. The outcome will be decided by personal preferences towards risk/reward rather than an objectively right answer. Also the reward outcome will be influenced by locality given tax.

I'd press 1M, put it into several safe bets and try to forget about it until I retire. It's still not enough to be able to afford a flat that's not a leasehold in Central London and what you can buy is a one bedroom.

I just press green until I win (it specified I can only press one button, it never said how many times I'm allowed to press it)

>>50972295
you should not be investing.

red button
>instant 1 million

green button
>50% at 50 million
>which is really 75% at 25 million
>which is 100% chance at 12.5 million

>>50972268

Its called "diminishing returns," the first 1 million is much more valuable than the second, and so on.

So what button you choose is how much more you value that first 1 mil vs the additional millions.

>>50972268
I'll press them both and no one will have the balls to stop me. In fact I'll mash those fuckers till they don't even pop back up. What's that little Twitter using bitch gonna do to stop me? I'll shoot his as and STILL be pressing those buttons. I'll be so rich that it won't even matter that I shot him dead.

>>50972458
hahaha

>>50972268
I would choose the green button and sell it. It has an expected return of 25 million so I could easily sell it for say 20 million.

>mathematics problem
Not even. lmao.
I'm confident in my ability to generate income, so I'd take the 2nd option. Win nothing? Fine, on with the usual.
But I totally get why someone would go for the instant $1m.

>>50973790
That's their own fault. They'll get land from their old man and if they can't do anything with that then they deserve what they get.

>>50972284
a-anon dont tell me y-y-you see pee?

>>50975964
That's an innovative idea there. This will make banking activities more convenient and easy to access. I like the recent innovations rolling out in the metaverse. I won't be surprised to see this aspect trend.

>>50972268
I pressed button where is million?

>>50976288
Just pay deaf hear to that poor brat. Assets diversification works better.

>>50972268
How much wealth do I already have?

>>50976150
If you're confident in your ability to generate income, why wouldn't you go with the $1 million? You can't be confident in getting the $50 million, but the $1 million is free money. With the $1 million you have an additional and relatively large sum to grow by your own efforts, but the $50 million is just a gamble. I'd take the $1 million exactly because I also feel confident that I could grow it, and it just makes my life easier if somebody hands me a million dollars out of nowhere. But if you changed the amounts I might change my calculus, because a million is plenty of money to allocate to investments that can still have ample room to grow. But if somebody offered me $5k or $100k with the same probabilities I think I'd gamble for the $100k. $5k just isn't worth as much to me as $1 million.

>>50976469
Actually I guess it should be 5k or 250k for the 1:50 ratio, but same thing. I'd probably take the gamble even if it was $10k vs $5k, I'm just not as precious about such a modest amount.

I'm already set to reach a million in net worth within the next 5 years. I'd take the green button for sure.

>>50976469
Fair enough. I just think the premise of being capable of funding an insurrection in a small country and turning it into a capitalist paradise is enough incentive for me to sacrifice the easy $1m.

>>50974402
high iq take

>>50972313
I agree in general but...
Increasing my net worth by 1million $ (before taxes) would push me into fullfilling my retirement requirements. These include a living standard I know to be happy at long term.>> 1 million for sure is amazing!

Versus a 50% chance to spend a few years (more) as a wage slave? Nope. >> go to hell 50% chance.

Sure, the 50% for 50 million $ is nice, after I got my yacht. But by then, it's just nice to have.

I already have a million lol... it's not a lot of money, but at least im no longer miserable

>>50972999
One of us! One of us!

>>50972295
I’m gonna explain it to you. Option red, you will get a million, option green you either get 50 million or nothing.

>>50975493
1m is worth SIGNIFICANTLY more than 1m over the course of 25 years. That's also ignoring daily life expenses.

>>50976469
Good angle.
I have the same view on the 5k vs. 100k. After all, an option payoff of x20 for 50% odds is great.
Having that on 1 million vs. 50 million. Well... 1 million would be a too big share of my net worth (kelly-bet anyone?). So a hard pass on that and get only the 1 million.

>>50976150
>Not even. lmao.
It absolutely is, expected value is basic bitch probability stuff, which ends up being the basis for all sorts of mathematical theories with some really interesting real-world applications.

>>50975029
rollan

>>50976918
except this clearly is an expected value problem, as proven by the many people choosing the 1 million.

>>50976881
Another angle: say you have $1 going into this choice. You can either score a guaranteed 1,000,000x or you can go for 50x that at the risk of being left with $1. $50M is a smaller step up from $1M than $1M is from $1 and you could lose and not get it anyway.

Roll the dice. You lose nothing but opportunity.

>>50977069
is not*

This entire thing is just a glowie/data mining thread.
Everyone that answers RED is a poorfag.
Everyone that answers GREEN is already a millionaire.

Everyone that said green and posted some mathematical bullshit justification should go flip a coin right now and tell us if they were right.

>>50973790
>giving a fuck about intergenerational wealth.

As tons of anons have already said, it's really dependent on your situation but frankly unless you already have several mil in the bank I think it would be incredibly dumb to not take the free million.

Now a really hard question would be dropping a zero from the equation. $100,000 guaranteed or 50% chance of $5,000,000.

Personally that would be pure torture. I'm sure 100k for free would prove to be too much of a cushion to pass up but I know myself and I'm certain I'd spend the rest of my life fantasizing to an unhealthy degree about having the 5 mil. That is retire today money and I know that I would never stop thinking about what life could have been like to the point that it would probably ruin my mental health. On the other hand if I chose the 5 mil and didn't hit I'd never live down how fucking retarded I was for passing on a free 100 grand. Basically anything except gambling on the 5 mil and hitting and I'm leaving the situation feeling like I completely fucked up.

>>50977669
I would still take the guaranteed $100k. That's a year of my annual income I can invest. Now if we drop another 0, I'd finally going for the gamble. I can save $10k on my own in a year.

>1 millions is literally nothing
>has 83.45$ net worth and larps as rich on /biz/

I know the EV for the green button could be higher but i'll take the 100%

>>50977669
Yeah, way better question. In OP's scenario both are life changing money, I'd take the million. In your scenario I'd take the gamble for life changing money because while 100k is super nice, i'd still just keep waging and investing.

>>50972268
The obvious answer is that statisticaly second option is better but statistics are useless if you have only one try

>>50972268
green button
sell futures options for the outcome
cash out way more than 1m

>>50972268
i'd press the 1 mil button without hesitation

>>50977069
All that proves is that there are many people relying on flawed, non-empirical decision making structures. value of outcome(50M)*(probability of outcome(0.5) is as textbook as expected value gets.

>>50977880
Value is subjective, I value my peace of mind, getting 1m no strings attached is comfy, getting heart attack after you get rugpulled is not

>>50972313
Das RITE
t. Poor person

>>50972268
At my current net worth - green
If I was still waging - red
Ez

>>50974289
I would be set for life with one million dollars. Not even joking.

>>50975465
The expectation is to come here at least slightly prepared or be ridiculed you fucking faggot. This isn't reddit to be spoonfed.

The correct answer is the green button with an expected value of $25 million. No, it doesn't matter how much money you already have. If you said red button, then you are almost certainly a tranny and should kill yourself immediately.

>>50972268
>Buy insurance
>Hit B
>Collect 23M

>>50972268
Life is based on risks. Who can tell you will be alive tomorrow to use those 1M?

>>50979840
It doesn't have an expected value of anything. You either get money or you don't. Statistics won't give you 25M if that coin flip comes up tails, you will have jack shit to show for it.

Andrew Tate's $50000 Hustlers university got LEAKED.

https://d1scord.gg/8V2UdnmP (replace 1 with "i" to avoid spam)

Learn how to copywrite, make money, ecommerce, crypto, code, trade all for FREE LEAKED NOW!!!!

>>50972795
Not him but they gave a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question. No one believes this is a literal proposition anon.

>>50980048
You need to have a basic understanding of business and finance. You're just a regular faggot. You'll never be a woman.

>>50980175
Ok faggot, go flip a coin and tell me if you're rich. No redos. Better yet, punch yourself in the balls if you lose so there's actually some stakes involved.

>>50980204
It's funny to me that you're so likely to kill yourself, tranny. How do you feel about that? Do you understand probability better now?

>>50974105
This is a good way to look at it, conversely the green button becomes more appealing the lower the amount of money for both goes

>>50972284
based, just bought some icy pee

>>50972429
this. this is the real question being asked.

>>50980258
If I'm the tranny why do you have a big purple homo ID?

You don't get multiple chances at this, your 'expected value' is meaningless, since you either get rich or end up with nothing. This is gambling, not finance.
The only thing that matters is the odds. Now punch yourself in the balls already shitlicker.

>>50972268
This question's too easy. Here's a one with real risk, how many times you pressing the button? You've got 3 centimeters to spare, and you need at least 10 wins to get a million.

$1 million. Quit the job that I currently have. It’s so bad that I’m taking a week off next week to go into a partial hospitalization program at a mental hospital. The stress is unimaginably bad and it’s extremely difficult to find another job.

>>50973865
kelly criterion
a guaranteed 1 million vs a 50% 50 million is more interesting because the difference is a lot larger

>>50972406
underrated

>>50980571
0 times unless i know the drill-eardrum distance

>>50972902
Only intelligent person itt

>>50972313
thats not how this works, you dont get to arbitrarily add in other aspects to the scenario. you have no idea what your net worth is, all you know is red = 1 million and green = maybe 50 million or maybe poo and pee.

>>50980571
w/ 3cm =30mm, ive got one press, go until i miss once

>>50972996
that's a man

>>50972284
Same

>>50972268
Depends. If youre shit rich, take the 50mil option, if youre me right now, you take the 1 mil. Its that simple, stop overcomplicating things

>>50972313
>which button I press would depend on my networth
this

>>50972313
sounds like loss minimization strategy.

>>50982170
yep

>>50972268
I would take the $1MM.

If I was 7 figs already, I'd take my chances with the $50MM. But I am not 7 figs.

Easy. 1 million.

Harder question: guaranteed 10k or coin flip for 1 million

financially speaking, picking red may or may not be the better choice but psychologically speaking, the demoralizing thoughts of "what if i had picked green" will soon overcome the good feelings of having $1 million, im sure.

>>50980571
where the fuck is the drill? if it's flush with your ear you get 1 press if you're lucky

>>50982827
how is that a hard question? $1MM coin toss ez. If that happened right in front of me and I lost, I'd still sleep easy. the fuck is $10k gonna do me? I lose $10k in my sleep.

>>50972313
Absolutely this.
>Win 1 million, would change my life.
>Win 50 million, would change my life.
>Lose, literally would be suicidal for passing up 1 million.

If it was 1000 bucks vs 50k, I'm gambling for 50k all day.

>>50972268
If I pressed red I could unironically retire in a year.

>>50972729
Being risk averse is perfectly rational.
Let's say you have a choice between 100% chance of getting $100M, or 1% chance of getting $100B. The second option has 10x higher average return, does that mean it's the objectively correct choice?

>>50972268
>presses both at the same time

>>50972284
That's like a no-operation since it will go to 0

>>50979696
I was ridiculed. What the fuck are you whining about you fucking retard?

anyone who doesn't pick the 50Million is a fuckn idiot.

mathematically and theoretically.

>risk/reward skews heavy in 50mil
>fallacy thinking you 'lost' 1 mill. you never had a mill you don't lose shit.

risk adverse behaviour to this degree is retarded in the same way the 3 doors problem stumps midwits.

I'm a gambling addict and I'm smart enough to see the value of the 50mil.
However I'm smart and can live well within my means, i could buy everything I've ever wanted with only 20k, I consider myself a low cost person, I'd say I could live off of 300$ a month besides rent pretty easily, so the 1 mil would let me sit on my ass for the rest of my life in all honesty, or it could provide me with an entertaining decade.

>>50983683
Is it idiotic that stocks have higher average returns than bonds? No, risk averse behaviour is reasonable.
>you don't lose shit
You lose the certain opportunity to gain 1 mil for nothing.

>>50972268
Neither. It is a trick question. No matter which one I answer I will be [punished. The only correct answer is to shoot the person making me choose in the forehead and then pushing both buttons or none at all. Both are valid choices. The wrong choice is to push one, 0 or 2 is fine as long as you kill the interrogator.

>>50972268
A million dollars is only a thousand 1000.

anyone not choosing red is already rich

>>50972315
What if I told you you could have a 100% chance to kill yourself right now if you wanted to?

>>50972268

tl;dr

>poorfags take red, more practical
>technically green is correct from cost/benefit or risk management perspective

>>50984105
>risk management
There is no risk to either one. You aren't putting up an investment. This hypothetical has no parallel to the stock market.

>>50983683
Only one guarantees you a better life. Your logic is retarded.
>You see a $1 million dollar bill on the ground, you might as well leave it there, you didn't have a million to begin with so you didn't lose shit
You get what you fucking deserve. If the guaranteed amount was smaller, like $100,000 or something, I could understand. But $1,000,000 is more than enough for a decent person to push their entire life into the stratosphere. I can see how a midwit would rather go for the $50 mill though, because to them, turning money into more money seems like an impossible task.

>>50984047
Or stupid

>>50984138
You could say that since the red one is guaranteed for you, you're investing that opportunity for a chance at a better one if you choose green. The opportunity is worth $1M because $1M is exactly what you get out of it with 100% certainty. So you're risking something that's worth $1M.

>>50972313
Risk tolerance, the textbook

>>50972268
I'd hit the green button so fast wouldn't even think about it longer than 5 seconds

>>50983782

midwit behaviour
you lost the same opportunity for getting 50 mill for nothing

>>50972268
I have guaranteed pity on Genshin so I'll use it on B instead.

>>50972999
It takes time to become a millionaire. Don't feel badly as long as you're on the right path (high income/low expense).

>>50984248

both guarantee a better life dumb ass.

>>50972372
He should. You split the odds of winning but picked a reward less than half of $50M.

>>50984490
That's a good point. So in other words, you manage to acquire a million dollars after x years of life, against all odds, and the question is whether you YOLO it for a chance at $50 mill. So I would still say the answer is to take the million. If someone saved up a million dollars to retire on, and they YOLO'd it on some retarded GME options play, everyone would rightfully call them retarded. You can turn a million dollars into many millions more, with risk that is far less than 50%.

>>50974244
Well, a good long term investment would be privacy crypto anon. The coming regulations would just amplify the need for them in the space.

>>50984879

You’re creating a scenario to justify ignoring the math. Pretend you had one billion dollars and were offered this question.

>1m 100%
>50m 50%

50x gains 2x risk

>>50982831
>Get one million completely risk free
>Ugh but what if it was more...
You are a woman

>>50972443

>>50972268
R/R is higher on B
No emotion: B
(But my risk tolerance is higher than a wagie, I have been a multimillionaire before, now back to 800k)

>>50972268
>1pbtid

>>50980357
>how does math work?
stay poor, tranny

>>50972313
This is the correct answer. It really depends on the person being asked the question. A million dollars would be life-changing for me, but not for someone else.

>>50972268
>$1000 vs $50,000
Gamble
>$10,000 vs $500,000
Gamble
>$100,000 vs $5mill
Gamble
>$1mill vs $50mill
Take the $1mill

>>50972268
Gamble. If post # ends in even I win.

I guess this is a case of the low IQ == high IQ meme, because most of you are absolutely retarded, and you have the delusion you are not.

>>50985221
You're ignoring reality to solely focus on expectation value.
Pretend you are broke and are given an option between 100% chance of $100 M or 1% chance of $100 B. The second option has ten times the average return, so you'd be an idiot to not take it, right?

>>50984707
>50% chance
>guarantee
Do you know what these words mean?

>>50972284
Greatest answer possible. how does 100 million billion dollars sound?

>>50972268
i take the 1mil, and just invest it in commodities, and other high yield divvy stocks, and don't worry about the other 50% chance of me not having 15 years of retirement funds.

>>50982151
nah ur gay nobody is gonna hit my head give me amnesia and then put me in this position sorry

>>50972268
Ugh what are these values
50 million is barely enough to make it, with that you can barely pay rent and have to eat rice and beans everyday.

It should at least be 1 billion or you'll never make it

Only a massive degen would pick the red button

but I am on /biz/ so thats most ppl here

>hit the red button like a gambling retard
>I'M GOING TO BE RICH!
>*beeeeeeeeeeep*
>looks like lady luck wasn't on your side this time, back to the wage cage

>>50972284
Almost as bad as putting it in LINK.

>>50987171
>hit the red button like a gambling retard
>I'M GOING TO BE RICH!
>get $1 million
>find out you're colourblind on an Indian scam forum

>>50984657
see >>50975029 we're expecting you back at the office tomorrow!

>>50987344
oh well didn't look at the image when posting i just assumed the 50 million was red because red means bad deal

>>50987353
I'm hitting the green, even digit I win, odd digit I lose. Trips and we all make it.

>>50987367
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA NOOOOOOOOOOO I SHOULD HAVE PRESSED THE RED BUTTON
IT HAD A HIGHER EXPECTATION VALUE BUT I GOT NOTHING
I COULD HAVE BEEN A MILLIONAIRE
MOMMMMMMYYYYYYYYY

>>50972268
Red. I don't deal in chances.

Red

B because A wouldn't really change my life
Only poors will choose A

>>50972313
This, it's a case by case scenario

>>50972268
I have 1 month to live, I take the million and blow 30k a day on hookers n shiiet.

>>50972268
I would go for the 50 million. You have to take risks to win, and that’s the easiest risk I’d ever have to take, since I wouldn’t be risking anything that I actually worked for. I lost 100 bitcoins since 2009, and I don’t feel bad, so I wouldn’t feel bad if I got nothing.

>>50987637
>1 month left of precious time on this Earth
>spends it on 4chan

Just press the green button twice idiots its 100% win

bonus questions:
-if you chose assured, would you pay 20k of that to purchase a 50/50 chance at another million dollars? At this same rate, how many times would you accept this option? (the rate is still for a 50x prize at 25x EV)
-if you chose 50/50, would you precommit to lose one of those millions in exchange for 20k insurance payment? (you get paid 20k win or lose) Again, same rate.

These are actually the same questions, just taking the original problem off the binary risk tolerance. If this change makes you switch from an absolute position even a little bit, then you must admit that the answer to the binary-phrased question depends upon circumstances.


best insights in the thread so far:
-minimum value of this opportunity is 1 million dollars because that is the minimum assured value of your two options
-you are essentially getting a million dollars, then getting an opportunity to 25x EV with 50% risk
-apparently gambling addicts who still PLAN to gamble will pass up the free EV out of inconsistent risk intolerance
-people who are more confident in their ability to make a multiple on a million are more likely to stay conservative
-people who are more confident in the value of their wisdom believe they don't need as much to establish their descendants successfully
-people who are inspired by visions of what they might be able to achieve are more likely to accept high risk high EV options
-rich/poor people will tend to have different opinions on this, but maybe this is in context of who else they are aware of? People who grew up with more exposure to upper crust might take more risk.
-people on biz have different reactions to 10x or 1/10th etc scale scenarios

>>50985949
Notice you still haven't done that coin flip shitstain, is it because you have a 50% chance of losing?

Anyone that presses red is a pussy

>>50972268
Go big or go home, faggots. Shit or get off the pot. What're you waitin' for.. Christmas? Easy choice is easy.

>instant million
>stake it all in BitDAO
>make it
>very comfy

>>50972268
0.5 x 50 = 25 > 1 but since I am poor my utilty function is skewed to 1 million

>>50972268
left because the difference between $0 and 1 mil is vast to a lil boy like me.

tfw pressed green
im so dumb