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It started with smaller institutions like New Century and AHM, then spread to mid-tier players Countrywide and Northern Rock, then Big Boys like Bear Sterns, and finally the mother ships like Lehman. People don't realize that we came an inch away from total civilizational collapse and reversion to stone age barter economy.
>>54015718The Ben Bernanke with his QE magic will save us right?
>>540157182008 was people defaulting on loansThis is just fear mongering trying to force a bank runThey're not the sameDoesn't mean economy isn't going to collapse, but shut the fuck up.
Nothing ever happens.
>>54015718Kek.>doomerfagsCrypto loses that much in marketcap all the time and literally nothing happens. Without FDIC no less.
>>54015760>2008 was people defaulting on loansthis is the bullshit scapegoat story they wanted you to believe.
>>54015760Contrary to popular belief, 2008 had very little to do with subprime mortgages.
>>54015805>>54015812you guys are retarded. Instead of just saying "you're wrong", fucking prove it. Otherwise fuck off.
>>54015805Post some proof faggot.
I'd never even heard of them till this week. Nothingburger?
>>54015812Rampant speculation on artificial and created financial instruments sounds a lot like what has been going on lately
>>54015833It would take years to teach you about inner working the global offshore dollar market and shadow banking system. Suffice to say that your understanding of the GFC comes from the Big Short and you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
>>54015911If you can't explain it simply in a few sentences then you don't know what you're talking about
>>54015950In short, the GFC was caused by a massive hidden global dollar shortage which Fed and CBs couldn't see. This offshore dollar market is still hidden from CBs, and they can only react to it, they have no ability influence it.
>>54015950The books are bad, man. Imagine you made money trading buttcoin and made a bad call. You bought big at 30k and it dumped to 15k. Not that big of a deal, right? Just hold for a year and it’ll go back upExcept now out of nowhere you lost your day job and you need to pay rent and bills forcing you to liquidate 3k a month. The bills increase by 50% every month but you don’t want to realize your loss. Your entire portfolio strategy is based on Bitcoin being 30k+You get zeroed out in time. Banks have shitty books they refuse to mark to market, liquidity drying up forces them to sell their holdings for a loss. Word gets to investors that they took a 50b loss last month because they were forced to sell for liquidity purposes. Now normies are starting a bank run. It’s over
holy fuck its over. im buying a gun this weekend.
>>54015812Midwit opinion discarded
>>54016055Lol
>>54015718>tfw getting a degree in accounting
>>54015718>stone age barter economyDon't get me hard anon
>>54015718IT'S HABBENING! YOU COULD OF SOBED ET! Y DIDN'T U SOBED ET?
>>54015812Then what caused it?
>>54015718The fact everyone is sperging about this tells me it's a nothingburger.
so why they arrested sbf but not those ceos of insolvent banks. well answer is whatever comes to your mind first when i say "owner of banks".
>>54015718Honestly getting by is already harder than it was during the peak of '08 crash. Shit's fucked.
The problems at SVB are pretty easy to explain.They have a genius management team that bought 10 year mortgage backed secutities at 1.5% rates with their entire liquidity pool.I mean why buy rock solid gov't bonds at 6% when you can buy highly volatile 1.5% mortgage backed securities on pig igorant ghetto trash immigrants before a major mult-year recession???SVB can't offload these securities, because instituational investors are not retarded and would never buy these securities against the current safer market options available. Thats the problem, SVB has to keep selling these MBS at an increasing death spiral rate of return. But don't worry, JAY is working hard on this right now.
>>54016215Unironically this
>>54015760>2008>people defaultingThanks zoomie and ww2 saved the us economy right?
>>54016055Retard thinks he's a genius because he watches George Gammon and Jeff Snider.Like the other Anon said. Post actually graphs and make a argument you haven't parroted from YouTube, or Twitter.
>>54016320>10 year mortgage backed secutities at 1.5% rateshahahaHAHAHA
but biden just said everything is fine, unemployment is lowest its ever been
>>54016215SVB down to $39.49 from$597.16 the 52 week high.Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy on SIVB, raises price target to $312 (6 days ago)Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on SIVB, Raises Price Target to $350 (22 days ago)Raymond James Maintains Outperform on SIVB, Raises Price Target to $375 (34 days ago)Trust Securities Maintains Buy on SIVB, Raises Price Target to $269 (45 days ago)Maxim Group Maintains Buy on SIVB, Lowers Price Target to $500 (45 days ago)Those are some big bags
>>54016401So what happens to all of the stock those guys owned. It's just fucking worth nothing now?
we didnt deleverage from 2008, covid was a temporary mask and ploy to hide this
>>54015718>reversion to stone age barter economy.Why would that ever happen when now we have cryptocurrencies?Retard, banks and fiat issue by governments have already become irrelevant to society
It's over.
>>54016443Yes
>>54015718> total civilizational collapse and reversion to stone age barter economy.The internet exists bozo
>>54016206Dollar funding shortage
>>54016373I'm not exaggerating here man. Thats the problem. All these baggies here telling you this is no big deal, or buy the dip, are telling you to BUY a large fund of options that rely on the real estate market being totally safe and stable for the next 10 years. For a 1.5% rate of return. Treat anyone who tells you this is a nothingburger with utter contempt. I repeat: they are telling you to put your money in a bank that is relying on a leveraged option on mortgages that will ONLY pay 1.5% at most for the next 10 years./biz/ is a fucking shit show of bad advice.
>>54015718I saw this movie this past Christmas. Mr. Baily! I'm waiting!
>>54015758No. Chineses saved you.
>>54016106>he doesn't already own gunsWhat the fuck are you doing?
>>54016443>>54016481""Smart Money""top kek
>>54016320>Head of financial Risk management>Queer woman of color>Single handedly cause global banking crisisGod this is sweet justice on globohomo.
A financial crash is only to your benefit if you are a young working class man with a non bullshit job. The 2008 crash would've made life better in the long run if the banks didn't get bailed out by printing trillions.It is time to erase a couple trillions in imaginary wealth. Imagine how much more worth your salary will be.You do have a non bullshit job, right?
>>54015760>This is just fear mongering trying to force a bank runbut i want that to happen because i hate banks
>>54015812AKSHUALLY
>>54015718Amazing News. I was getting impatient
>>54016455Second this, many business owners started cutting 25% bottom tier employees in 2019. Something was very wrong. Covid changed the entire dynamic, but it is very obvious something is not right, and many smart medium sized businesses owners in my area saw it in 2019.
>>54015760So startups defaulting on loans to svb is different?
>>54016320She looks pretty fucking attractive imo
>>54016601Another second, a collapse of companies and banks opens up a entirely new opportunity for young entrepreneurs. It opens up a “wealth transfer”. A lot of people do not want a wealth transfer. If a major crash was to occur, and many companies collapsed, we would rebuild, and new wealth would develop. I doubt the fed will allow banks to fail. In 08 people do not realize how close we were to economic ruin for so many. But we would have been way better off in the long run if we had collapsed in 08.
>>54016601>with a non bullshit jobAll there are is bullshit jobs.
>>54015718This is the 18th or the 19th bank of the US. A literal small fry in a single shithole leftist city
>>54016215sauce?
>>54015718This one is a lot more targeted and manipulated.
>>54016888>bail out incompetents>incompetents continue to run everything>wonder why you receive further incompetencebank bailouts were not lawful. now we pay the price for letting them get away with it. also final solution wooden doors
>>54016888americas sectoral shift!
>>54016215kek this, everyone wants a nuclear fallout yet we are only getting small shit like this
>>54015760>>54015833Clueless zoom-zoom detected.
>>54017009it never happens you stupid fucking faggot. its the fed;s and gov job to not let it happen. People are being paid right now to keep a global collapse from happening. if you had a brain in ur fucking head you would know that they are trying to time the onboarding of control state by demoing the old system
WW3 here we go.
>>54017087I agree. I do not think ANYONE should get a bailout. The banks got bailed out and screwed everyone else. They need to be allowed to collapse. Any company that cannot stand on its own, needs to fail.At the time boomers were starting to retire in 08 and didn’t want to loose everything, and they were ok with the government proposed solution. I don’t know what public backlash would be with another banking bailout. They’ll probably get away it again.Millennials are starting to get tired of being stepped on, and held down with crappy wages.
>>54017172gee faggot >a collapse cant happen >but what if we inflate the money supply toofucking loser, since the fed didnt touch rates like they were supposed to in 2019, were going to be hit with inflation + were already in a recession
>>54015718All the retarddd remote work pieces of shit who bought houses down south for 100 percent over asking price - BYE BYE. GOODBYE! RIP BOZO. MOVE BACK INTO YOUR MASSHOLE PARENTS HOUSE FAGGOT
>>54017225kills me people were willing to riot over a nigger OD'ing by eating his own stash, but continued financial shenanigans, venezuela tier inflation, and wage stagnation gets crickets. not to mention the social security ponzi scheme which is already officially admitted to be insolvent but we are still forced to pay into.god i hate normalfags
OK nigger
>>54016206Crashes just happen every ~14yrs, it's all part of system. Same as bitcoin booms happen every ~4yrs. They will happen no matter what. But that doesn't stop every kike who owns a news station from making up some bullshit reason why the everyday goyim are responsible for it.
>>54017315The FED's monetary policy is responsible for creating those bubbles and the government also contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis.
>>54017244retard. its not going to fucking happen, ive been were you are you stupid zoomer faggot. it was supposed to happen since busch and o nigger. Something always stops it.
>>54017298It’s mass propaganda. People listen to their CNN alerts on the phone. They are mad, when told to be mad. It’s literally a hive brain retard complex….Most people ARE “sheep”. Some people can only work on a manufacturing line and screw in the same bolt, everyday, for 30 years, and retire. Unfortunately, after the boomers performed these jobs, they decided to sell everything to China. Not everyone can be in management, or see economic stress etc…It’s all a ponzischeme
>>54017362you ever think those bubbles are good? would you rather have a mega boom of innovation for a year then a blow out for 50 years? id rather have controlled mini waves of cheap credit(inovation comes from this)
>>54015760Who's still worried about bank runs anyway when we've got the FDIC to protect us?
>>54017430>controlledThey can't control an offshore dollar market which dwarfs the domestic monetary system. The problem is the global monetary system is a golem of their own making which is completely unregulated and leads to the same kind of boom and bust cycles we had 100 years ago.
>>54016206>then what caused it?Basically what >>54015897 said and they knew they would just get a bailout so they basically play Monopoly with your money because they own you.
>>54015718>People don't realize that we came an inch away from total civilizational collapse and reversion to stone age barter economy.Stupid fuck, we did collapse. We've been in a depression since 2008.Wages have barely moved in relation to house prices.Don't talk about shit with authority if you don't know basic shit, fucktard.
>>54017379we actually have decentralized technology and finance now, you tunnel visioned boot licking son of a bitch. manifest some destiny why dont you?
>>54017315Once you realize that the whole system is controlled by a bunch of baby eating pyramid worshippers that just follow astrological patterns, then you're basically set for life. Just trading on that knowledge alone will make you rich kek.
>>54017600>see flu jab being pushed with insane levels of propaganda>view merchant>no thank you>dodge holocaust by being an antisemite while people with medical degrees get gacked
>>54017590Yeah, and guess what controls the rise and fall of the value of crypto? It's pumped with FIAT! The price of Bitcoin is controlled by FIAT you dumb nigger and if it wasn't then Bitcoin would've just stayed at like $100 forever oh my god you're so stupid. Also big banks own enough Bitcoin that they can manipulate the market however they want. The blackpill for Bitcoin is that they want to fool you into thinking you're getting one over on ((them)) but it's really just a continuation of the old system kek.
>>54017702didnt read + i use eth at $500 or $5000 works the same for me. you gold niggers love to compare dont you? i actually put my assets to USE
>>54015760>defaulting on loansMy father was the VP of a mortgage company, they got shut down for taking loans from banks and duplicating them by getting multiple loans from different banks for the same property. It goes a lot deeper than just “muh blacks didn’t pay their bills”.
>>54017737>hurr i don't mind spending $5k worth of eth on a pizza hurr durr then it's worth 5 million a few years later. Look how smart I am guys.These are the ppl I share this board with kys
>>54016320I have a question,Was govt bonds at 6%, when the svb aped into mbs's at 1.5%? I mean govt bonds weren't 6% until recently right? or am i retarded?man the c
>>54017819YOUAREABOYYYYYYYY
>>54015718>People don't realize that we came an inch away from total civilizational collapse and reversion to stone age barter economy.>an inchExcept we didn't and life went on normal for people who didn't make terrible investments in bubble markets. You're an idiot if you think the US is ever going to let the big major banks fail. They will always be bailed out. These smaller banks don't matter.
>>54015812actual fucking retard>>54015911it happened in 2008 and it's 2023 and you still can't explain it in a couple sentencesyou're a fucking fraud
>>54017379> something always stops itKicking the can down the street isn’t “stopping it”. It’s just temporarily gaining peace of mind to forget a crisis was ever a possibility. Until…the crisis rears its ugly head again.
>>54017926If you think the Fed/Congress have infinite power to swoop in and save the financial system every time, you are sadly mistaken. When liquidity freezes up and banks won't even lend to each other, the Fed is essentially performing CPR on a dead patient. They might come back to life, but not always. If it happens again I doubt they'll be able to save it.
>>54017519> off-shore dollar marketAre you alluding to the trillions of USD (our debt) held by foreign countries and investors that never reaches our shores? The same off-shore market, whereby the currency no longer being valuable to said countries would return to us, all at once? That off-shore dollar market?
>>54017926Sure, but at this point. Imagine the size of the bail out that would be needed… if a 08 style collapse triggered.. in 2023.. and started another massive bail out wouldn’t it cause insane hyperinflation?
>>54015798>Crypto loses that much in marketcap all the time and literally nothing happens. Without FDIC no less.because crypto is nothing to do with the real economy. just a bunch of nerds selling their fake tokens to each other.
>>54016443I thought FDIC was going to start liquidating the bank to pay investors. It's not going to be worth $0, but it is going to he worth significantly less than they paid for it.
>>54017841Good question: Here's the most intelligent rundown I've seen on this subject:https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752In short, they did it pretty recently but not like last week or anything. And yes it is still retarded to bet an entire's banks asset sheet on mortgage backed securities.ANY risk manager should fucking know this, especially the leader of a major bank.
>>54015760You don't know this wasn't caused by people defaulting on loans. We don't know any details about the internals of svb yet.
>>54018440In case you are a Rtialin drug addicted zoomer who can't read anything too long, basically MBS aren't too dangerous, but since they ape'd in EVERYTHING on them they had no reserves to pay day to day costs (i.e., normal banking withdrawals). They were forced to sell these MBS at major losses just to keep the doors open / lights on causing a death spiral. Once investors saw what happening it was ogre.
>>54016443Always was.
>>54018479Yes we do. See the twitter chain above. Its been confirmed by many other reliable sources. Its a perfect case of a risk manager putting EVERY egg they had in one basket and then putting that egg basket on a roller coaster in an earthquake.It was not because of minorities buying houses on credit. I'm as racist as anybody, but this is ENTIRELY the fault of senior managers at SVB.
>>54018440Banks are allowed to invest user deposits in securities? Lmao. Same shit that took down Celsius and FTX, I thought government regulation was supposed to fix this.
>>54015760Fucking retard. Kek.
>>54018626C'mon bro. SVB / Jay Ersapah was giving loans to struggling transgender people of color. The rules stopped right there bud in the law book.Its effectively the sales of indulgences in the financial world.
>>54016597It’s the funniest shit.Of course there is the question “who put her in that position?”But asking that would be antisemetic.
>>54016597The horror will continue until they learn their lesson.
>>54018626https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath_of_the_repeal_of_the_Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Acthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Acthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_legislationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_in_post-financial_crisis_reform_debateThere is a reason why there are like 10 different wikipedia pages about Glass Steagall, that aren't even about anything other than issues surrounding it.
>>54016601It's true. A crash in asset prices doesn't impact anyone who doesn't have assets. So long as you have the income necessary to slurp the dip you can pick up shit cheap. (And by cheap, I really just mean true market price).
>>54017009Once again millenials get fucked. The crash that would have helped in 2008 has now been delayed into a crash in the 2020s that will permanently ruin any chance we ever had lol
>>54016166https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfS_m78Qg4Y
>>54017225Give me a reason why the government shouldn't be the only investment bank, like in an MMO. The government actively benefits from people storing their money in such a bank because it's actively deflationary to take that money out of circulation.
>>54018626Where the fuck have you been? I continue to underestimate how fucking stupid and clueless goyim are, lmfao. This shitshow will be amazing.
>>54018961*only non-investment bankMeant commercial bank
>>54018526>16th largest american bank acts like me investing in "le bluechip cryptos">eats shit>me thinking what are the chances the top 15 banks aren't as retarded as #16?
>>54015760pic related in every state is the only thing keeping the defaults from your avg person happening. i'm one of them. getting gibs right out of this texas 700 mil fund.
>>54016320Hate to break it to you but SVB and SVB UK are completely different entities.SVB UK is in no danger.You can go back to your echo chamber now.
>>54017286Bought 15% under asking price at 1.5% rate for 5 years. Get fuck libtard keep living with your parents, basement dweller
>>54019036How
>>54018998they ate shit investing in mortgages, this is a lot worse of a picture for the broader banking sector
>>54019101you have to be late on your mortgage and can explain a hardship. I got laid off from NCR in feb last year and was unemployment until aug. doing ebay now. I didn't pay on purpose since I'm low income and knew I had a hardship case. I paid until Dec and then have held off hoping this would go through. go approved this week. if your debt to income is in range you can get 3 future payments too. I don't have a mortgage payment until june now lol. every state has something like this bc of the bills they past during covid.
>>54015718they should have let it collapse in 2008, it would have been far better for everyone
>>54017587>sent from my iPhone
My story with chainlink begins in 2004. Someone told me something on a phone dating Chatline. I feel God will show me a sign when it's time to share my story.
>>54019086Anon, did you get an adjustable rate mortgage?
>>54015718startups are mostly useless anywaysnothing of value will be lost society has progressed past the need for startups
>>54016055>the GFC was caused by a massive hidden global dollar shortage which Fed and CBs couldn't seeright now the fed is pretty much the sole cause of the global dollar shortage and until tuesday the shit that drivelled out of their mouths said they will make the shortage even more shortfun to see how this plays out but its gonna be emergency meeting soon i think
>>54015758Hopefully they'll do what they should have done last time, which was helicooter money for people to pay off collapsing debt-based assets, seizing anything that's on the brink of failure, and telling the capitalists/bankers who cry because they've lost everything while the hoi polloi are made whole to go kick rocks (or better yet break them (with a pick axe( in prison))).>>54015760The loans were made to fail. They were made to fail because the banks knew they'd be bailed out. So it was the banks' fault.Also go look up Citi and Traveler's holding pensions hostage in the 90s.
>>54018626>Banks are allowed to invest user deposits in securities?What is it that you think banks do?
>>54016320>SVIB UK>Silicon Valley>UKThis is like bemoaning the fall of Sears because you knew a manager who worked there who had way too many piercings.Sears Canada, I mean.
>>54016506>on mortgages that will ONLY pay 1.5% at most for the next 10 yearsin a year from now a 1.5% yield will be high again as rates get cut back to zero or even below that
>>54016455October 2019 crisis.
>>54019385>They were made to fail because the banks knew they'd be bailed outThe government literally are the ones who promoted bad loans through F&F. How insane are you that you think the Gov should be the ones to *fix it* when they caused it.
>>54019086I still dont understand how people think they are 'buying' taking on mortgage debt, bank owns the deed until you pay it back.also, if inflation is theft, and the banks are printing money from nothing themselves for that mortgage, i dont understand how its inline with the 10 commandments' "thou shall not steal clause". In the code its a collusion between you and bank to steal by inflation from the public to live in a box.Fire and brimestone, i'll stick with the intergenerational household model
>>54019477>those digitsOh fuck please no, not again. We've only had like 2 quarters of defli9nary movement and the system can't even handle that. We are so fucked.
>>54016601>Non-bullshit jobThere is no such thing unfortunately. Even if you have non-bullshit tasks, your position exists at the whim of managers and executives who, on balance, don't know what the fuck you do. Being able to say, "If you fire me, [thing] will explode," is helpful, but no guarantee, especially if all the boss hears is, "Weird whining from a guy I already fired in my head 10 minutes ago."I agree that youth is helpful since a youg worker will not have encountered and been traumatized by the learning of this yet.
>>54015812>>54015812>2008 had very little to do with subprime mortgages.this. Poor people buying houses they can't afford make for a good scapegoat, but the real problem was the incestuous relationship between rating agencies and the companies putting together mortgage backed securities resulting in an enormous mis-pricing of risk. pic related shows that while subprime mortgage securities were impaired at a higher rate, it wasn't a dramatically higher difference. Compare that with Collateralized Debt Obligations which were given a "Aaa" rating by the rating agencies but became impaired at >50%.
>much apocalypse and stone age economyYou don't lose the tech created during the bubble, some rich people just lose their hats. That's the beauty of the smoke and mirrors clown economy, we innovationmaxx and productivitymaxx chasing imaginary money, some people ultimately lose but we all win because the things created during that frenzy still exist.i.e. imagine you have 5 geniuses, you promise them each $10M if they can come up with X invention (you actually only have $10M total), they all come up with an invention, you take note of it, and then tell them you just fucked them because there's only $10M to give. Doesn't matter, their creation is still there, you can still utilize it, profit from it, the circus keeps going.
>>54019508Banks set the mortgage rates and terms, they specifically engineered them to bleed homeowners and then default. Gov't just backed them because they're people-pleasers (and by people I mean corporations) first and foremost. Gov't backing of corporate loans (rather than just providing the loans directly) was a result of bank lobbying, also. At every turn, it's Citi and Wells and GS pulling the strings. If gov't is at fault, it's for listening to the banks and privileging them in policy. They should have been allowed to fail, and Bernanke should have been printing stimulus checks like a Brother.
>>54015718Yep, which is why the FDIC moved in immediantly and decided to liquidate it, because the government is trying to reassure the public that they have everything under control.Thing is though that the FDIC only has a couple billion on hand for insurance purposes and the market has untold quadrillions in derivatives. If this does turn into a contagion event then no amount of FDIC assurances will contain it.Its friday, you guys may want to consider pulling some cash out of your bank accounts for the weekend in case this actually is system wide and we're in for some weekend bail ins.
>>54018961Because governments are corrupt and do not have the interest of their people.. ever… throughout history, governments have always ruled people with iron fist.
>>54019045>British Petroleum UK =/= British Petroleum USA>British Petroleum UK goes under>This faggot here posts "nah nah they're not the same entity stupid" even though its the parent company with the same brand name>British Petroleum USA goes under 2 weeks later
>>54019654instead of banks, or anyone, stepping in to stop bad loans being approved, they said keep doing more of this.
>>54019777I picked an amazing time to be broke and debt-maxed.
just do what this guy does and dump it all in Legal Reserve Insurance Companieshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13phhq78mF0
>>54019175>they ate shit investing in mortgagesthey technically didnt, this whole crisis is based on fractional banking and mismatch in timeframesso people put their money in this bank expecting a return, the bank then invests this money at a rate of return plus some profitthey chose mbs that didnt fail at a reasonable rate at the time, since then the fed hiked the rateshere in lie 2 problems this bank has to increase the interest they give on their accounts otherwise the people would pull their money and go to another bank that offers higher returnsbut they cant as to generate returns they invested in stuff that is locked up for some years, last figure i saw was an average of jsut below 4 years on their mbs packagenow if there was no bankrun and those mbs were allowed to run out those 4 years all was fine, but since a panic was started sivb had to liquidate their investments at deep discounts to cover outflows until they death spiraled the basis of this problem is acutally really simple banks have accounts that can be withdrawn at a moments notice, but investment over longer timeframes to generate returnsfor as long as this current banking system exists this problem will be there that banks (all of them) can never repay all of their customers all at oncethe specifics of today are just the bank having gone the furthest out on the risk curve and blowing up but the details dont really matter>>54018928a crash in assets prices will mean mass lay offs meaning that you will be out of that job you really on to afford food, thats how it impacts you
>>54019827Lol
>>54016443Who do you think crashed the price?
>>54019662Depends on the type of collapse. Innovations require a complex system to be in place. They cant even replicate the Saturn V rockets even if they wanted to, because they lost the blueprints.
>>54015718Someone who works in finance here.It not the same as 2008.Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG etc were systemically important banks to the entire financial sector. One going belly up had massive implications for all others.Then came Basel 3 regulations, which introduced concept of "risk weighted assets" for which you had to hold a lot of capital. So what did banks do? Cut down on RWA. No more structured products, or only a bit.Then a shit load of other regulations, like liquidity ratio and leverage ratio yada yada.Tldr: Banks have no more fancy stuff on their books, no leverage, no risk assets..Except, the regulator defines what is risky. And guess what the regulator said is not risky? Everything related to the government. So treasuries, mbs, abs if issued by "Federal backed entity" (Fannie mae etc) counts as a fat ZERO in the risk weight calculation.So banks have a shitload of government-related bonds now, which have lost in value. Ok, that's bad, but nothing like 2008 as there is no interconnectedness between banks. So who is fucked now? Well let's see. In the short term, the VC who had the money at SVB. But they'll probably recoup most of it, just like Lehmann bond holders recouped like 98% of their value.So the regulator fucked this up by saying "debt by government is riskless" but other than that there implications are not big.
>>54019983>because they lost the blueprints.Wrong, we have the blueprints, anon. What we lost was the living institutional memory of the guys who built from the blueprints, but made changes along the way that were never written down. Those guys are all dead or retired now.
>>54017069It's the goyslop girl
>>54020004bank of american has the same problem that killed sivb and its unrealized losses are at 40% of its equitythe problem is again that if they tried to sell those risk free t bills bought over a year ago today due to the ffr going up they would lose fortunes on themso if enough people start a bankrun bank of america is nextthat big enough for you
>>54015718konichiwa my ferow biz experts. how fucked my unicorns are? their bank accounts and payroll processing was all done in svb.
>>54020004Did you even read the fucking OP
>>54019818>they said keep doing more of this.Except that the subprime mortgages weren't the problem (they were possibly the trigger). Aaa rated Subprime securities became impaired at a *lower* rate than prime securities! The issue was with the CDOs, where the rating agencies gave these debt obligations that few people understood the safest possible rating, which very few companies even have. The rating agencies didn't really understand the risks and while that should have been a red flag, they rated the CDOs highly to keep the business. Since they were now "safe", the CDOs were able to be used as collateral for practically anything. Some subprime mortgages went best, which wouldn't be a problem except that they impaired supposedly "safe" CDOs, which had been used to fund other transactions which suddenly went *poof*, and so on and so on.
>>54019777Gotta check those digits. I'd be draining my funds out of US bank accounts right now if I were you.
>>54019878They still had a loss on investment, if mortgage rates in the market go up that drives the trading price down on any already existing mortgages. Deposits being withdrawn from the bank forced them to realize the losses. >was caused by mismatch in timeframesYou could say the say thing you are saying had they put everything into dividend stocks and the dividend stocks cratered in price, technically they could still hold them for a long time and collect the yield but what they were doing was an investment and the value of that investment had cratered. They were sitting on a massive loss and the moment people asked for their money back the jig was up, sure if people waited 20 years the bank would be solvent again but if rates keep going up then it's a massive opportunity cost for everyone involved.
how do i profit from this?
>>54015718SLURP
>>54020131
>>54015758Nope, not while we have inflation this high. Inflation wasnt an issue under Bernanke.
>>54020150the mbs didnt fail at the time of the banks failure so if they could hold to maturity they would not make a lose on their investment, yes the forced selling is what killed themand no this is completely different from dividend stock, the return rates on those mbs are fixed for the duration while any company can slash dividend whenever they feel like
2008 was big because ALL the corporations almost took a 30-40% haircut on their “cash” holdingsCorporations, at least at that point in time but very much still today, don’t keep their cash in cash, they keep it in low risk bonds. This is called a money market fund, basically, and when a corporation says they have X amount of cash they actually mean they have an extremely liquid supply of 1 day to 3 month bonds with AA+ ratings held by a fund, and they trade those bonds as if they were cash.2008 got extremely bad because of the financialization of the economy, banks figured out 1) that a bad bond, not AA rated, could be turned into an AA rated bond by buying insurance on the bond from an AA rated company, buying a credit default swap. 2) they also figured out they could take the insurance premiums, the fixed leg of the CDS, and sell it as it’s own bundled product called a synthetic collateralized debt obligation, and because the income for that product was produced by AA rated MBS, the CDS income was also guaranteed AA.This allowed those money market funds, through a variety of duration and yield enhancing financial magicks, to essentially multiply their liquidity by exponential amounts, they now can not only sell you $1 of 6% yield, they can sell you $2 of 6% yieldThis is simplifying it somewhat, but due to fractional asset banking, the borrowing and lending of securities multiple times over, the more product there is in a money market fund, the more yield there is, the more fucking money there is! It caused a huge boom in wealth over the years, this game of selling SCLO’s and SCDO’s, and it was all because corporations had more CASH.So when it came crashing down, when the insurance banks were unable to pay out any longer on the shit MBS bonds, the entire system came crashing down. There was no more MBS yield in the money market, there was no more CDS yield in the money market, without a bail out corporations would have lost 30% of their cash
>>54020025Yeah no more Nazis. Kind of sad
>>54018930at this point i dont get why we don't just glass boomers to death and take their houses and assets. violence works, that's the message
>>54019983>>54020025Each rocket engine was unique and custom made and tested for reliability.NASA has gone back through the prints and and designed a Saturn V engine on CAD that can be made with modern technologies. We could build one if needed.
>>54018588check this out to stay racist lol their head risk management was some brown womanhttps://twitter.com/goychka/status/1634259637766594577
>>54015718so how would you make money off this situation?what would you have done differently in 2008 to profit off the recession?
>>54015718Hey kiddos. Just thought I'd post, this isn't 2008.2008 was 2001, etc.It goes back to the 1970's.
>>54020320BumpI wish I understood more than half but i only know medicine
>>54020797My favorite analyst likes to practice medicine philanthropically, John Hussman, look him up!
it's a nothingburger you schizo
>>540157602023 is everyone running out of cash because they can't break even when interest rates are over 2%
>>54019086>1.5% rate for 5 years>for 5 yearshow do your finances look if, in a BEST case scenario, you're at 3% in a couple years?
>>>54017841He's referring to what is called the Eurodollar system (has nothing to do with Euros, the network started in the 60's, I believe). Basically everybody wants dollars, for various reasons, like buying oil or US Treasuries, to pay off US Dollar denominated debt, or to do business with the US, etc. So what these foreign banks do is effectively 'print' US dollars when they lend to other foreign entities. So it's an item on banks' balance sheets that represents dollars, but isn't actually US Dollars that are created by the Federal Reserve. And no one really knows how big this market it. It's global and the whole global financial system depends on it.
>>54020004>So the regulator fucked this up by saying "debt by government is riskless"The regulators having to backtrack on this has some interesting implications by itself>they won't
Big Silicon Titties Bank
>>54019654It was a rug pull for Blackrock and vanguard. The federal government could have bought all the subprime loans, repackaged them as low interest standard loans, and sold them for a small loss. It would have cost much less and added less national debt than 10 years of QE
>>54020625>We could build one if needed.Oh, I agree we could. There would need to be some testing and fine-tuning, but that would be doubly true with a new design. We didn't lose the blueprints, though. They are still around and I wouldn't be surprised to learn they were digitized.
>>54016597Saturn entered Pisces March 7
>>54015718The correct thing to do is to let them fail and go through bankruptcy like they should and break banks up into smaller entities But that won’t be allowed by our neoliberal regime
>>54019777Checked but I bank with chase and based Jamie Dimon
>>54015760>15 years later and still believing it's because poor people borrowed more than they could affordThey literally made a fucking movie about this, there's no excuse for being so ignorant.
>>54015812Your right it was about the us government forcing banks to take shit loans and then promising they’d back them when they went to shit and that they could take on risky CDS’s to offset the bad loans.
>>54015812F-fuck you I saw a movie about it
>>54016271What is a bankman to a bank king?
>>54020625>>54021217No man on the moon for 50 years. >we totally could if we wanted to!Until there is another human being on the moon, I express my doubts
>>54021341Jamie holds the most uncleared derivatives of any bank in the world, nearly 40% of the net JPM balance sheet is otc derivatives
>>54016206Bubble popping. Then lenders tightening up and no longer letting liquid collateral flow in the world financial system.
>>54019252What’s on that tape anon, let us know
>>54016055The Eurodollar market? Is that the same issue right now?
>>54015760Oy vey
>>54017379>bullshit, my kindey's can never give out. Sure my GFR looks near fatal but that doesn't matter. they were supposed give out like 10 times before and I'm still here, therefore I'm immortal
>>54015718I was in my early 20s in '08. Markets crashed 60% and layoffs were everywhere. Everyone was affected. This time will be way worse.
>>54015760>retard insta hoes debt maxing their credit cards>boomers finally running out of retirement money>white man not spending his best years in the mines making capitalists rich>welfare at all time highsYea, I'd say the horse pulling this buggy is about to drop anon. Saw an article the other day that mortgage lenders are trying their best to get maximum amount of loans cause they don't want to be holding cash. why? Because real estate is the only thing that gives a yield in a crash.
>>54016476b-b-b-b-ros what h-h-happens w-when the money printer that is tech runs out of cash and can't pay its debts??
>>54015760>this is just fear mongeringThe difference between fear mongering and intelligentfags trying to warn of trouble is that they are right about your system being fake and gay and a house of cards. Its only fear mongering if it isn't true, which it is.Welcome to the hall of costs, you're in it for the long haul.
KILL EVERYTHING. Fuck all bailouters/money printers/0% rates forever retards
>>54016215massive sperfests that led to absolute nothingburgers:>greek debt default>euro (currency) collapse>EU split>deutsche bank>catalonian independence>plandemic>FED repo facility #1>evergrande>FED repo facility #2 the other way round>credit suisse>the ever reoccurring US debt ceilingany suggestions?
>>54016055>>54021048I’m no expert on the eurodollar system, but basically from what I understand it’s just demand for dollars that comes from off-balance sheet these days
>>54016320>head of finanical risk management >I feel privileged to co-chair the LGBTQ+Hahahahahahahahahaha holy shit someone hired this roastie to suck his tranny fanny.The eternal jew is rewarded with the fruits of the pedotranny tyranny which he forced on the rest of us.
>>54019592What the fuck are you talking about faggot. I believe he was talking about real life skills in the real life world. Anyone can work for themselves, you don't because you're a weak fag NGMI
>>54015887I’m afraid it’s a somethingburger.
>>54019477Good point. That said, SVB cant even go another month, let alone another year. Its still terrible risk asset management. Stop trying to be a contrarian for contrarians sake.
Breaking: Roku has 26% of its assets at SVB, uninsured.
>>54017992then you kick it down the road again. This is going to be the play until we can get kikes and boomers out of the way
>>54016401>>54016443All of them will pull a (((Melvin))), where they're (((miraculously))) able to liquidate all of their holdings in the span of a 5-minute-candle with barely any volume.
>>54019502>October 2019 crisis.What happened there?Can't remember.
>>54015718If I want to accelerate collapse would doing a bank run be the best way to do it? I wanna make the jews pay.
>>54023735SOFR shot up to 10%, the fed opened the repo facility and began bailing out overnight funding markets
>>54019452>What is it that you think banks do?kekOP is on point in all of their responses. will be checking back later to see if they have any more to say
>>54016888>Second this, many business owners started cutting 25% bottom tier employees in 2019. Something was very wrong.explain picrelated please.something doesn't add up.
>>54018626Regulation means the banks policing themselves. The Basel accord is an international standard that basically all the large banks adopted and they won’t deal with anyone who doesn’t comply with the Basel self regulations
>>54023774Oh, that thing.The horror.
>>54023855These were peanuts, though.
>>54023855It was pretty bad. For about 2 days it was in excess of 10%, and post LIBOR transition that meant most banks were using SOFR for their funding activities, including derivatives. Not to mention it led to a fucking washout of liquidity in the system, the fed hadn’t used the repo facility in years at that point, it was considered a relic of the GFC fed facilities.
>>54015718Time to start WW3
>>54023895Half a trillion dollars in USD stretches extremely far when you use it to collateralize positions
>>54023904Well and now the system is awash in funds that institutions are storing more than $2t on average at the FED each and every night, willing to take on the risk of US debt instruments.
>>54015760Except this time US interest payments on debt are almost equal to the entire US revenue. It is ogre.
>>54023942That is true.
>>54023855Why has it gone back up? whats up with that?
>>54023989It's tied to the FED funds rate, I guess.
>>54023953Very true, very true. I find Repo vastly more fascinating than RRP however, especially in 2019 it basically forecasted the return of QE, there is a Swiss analyst who’s name I cannot remember who did a great expose of how you might as well act like QE4 was already there because mathematically the fed had to turn back on QE after to overnight blowout.I personally think the RRP facility is a mistake, the dollar system works when it’s stretched thin not when you’re bolstering bottom line yields on cash
>>54024022Was it that dude?https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
>>54023536I see. I'll be honest, I know nothing about it other than what I can paraphrase from YouTube videos. Can you elaborate further?
>>54023989>>54024006That’s the overnight bank lending rate, foreign banks or hedge funds or other non-fed entities may need cash to meet obligations for one day. say you have $10 in cash but $30 in assets and someone wants to withdraw $12 from your bank, you can repo out $2 in assets overnight until you get more cash tomorrow to pay it back, is ostensibly how it works.In reality it is wholesale funding for banks that can’t access the Fed, is what it ended up becoming, because the borrowing rate for the discount window and the borrowing rate from your buddy Goldman may not always necessarily line up, Goldman may be flush with cash while the fed is busy trying to tamp down on inflation you see
Why is this faggot OP implying that the end of this shitty banking system would've been a bad thing?>>54016597This is all part of their plan you idiot. All the big kikes are sitting on trillion in cash and were waiting for the dump.
>>54015760Don't confuse the reason, the problem, and the conclusion.The problem was bank/firms treating MBS as completely safe -- and pushing the risk exposure until it broke in the name of returns. The reason it broke was because - duh - MBS aren't 100% safe, they do have a risk. The conclusion was everyone a lot of people suddenly remembering loans have risk and scrambling for the door.New reason, same problem. Many of the same variables. Same conclusion? Yes, I think so.
>>54024065It was this guy, Zoltan Pozsar. If you’re interested you should read the report he did, it sent me down a very large rabbit hole https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-repo-creditsuisse/repo-rupture-at-year-end-could-lead-to-qe4-credit-suisse-analyst-idUKL1N28K1B2Although I will mention, not a fan of his commodity analysis he did, I only really like his funding market analysis
>>54024141I'll give it a read,ty.I guess the only Swiss thing about my link was the country code, lol.
>>54024022>>54024141However, I personally believe that contrary to popular or "educated" opinion, this time will indeed be different and we'll get to find out if the rubber band can indeed stretch to near infinity.Meaning, the FED doing "nothing at all"; or at least nothing that constitutes as another QE program.I am prepared to witness the (((System))) chug along nicely with sky high interest rates in realty bending, mind boggling ways for longer than anybody thought would be possible.
>>54024089I can yes, once again my understanding of the Eurodollars intricacies with opaque derivatives is not great, but my understanding is that actually most of the demand for “Eurodollars” comes from US banks trading with US banks, but simply in off balance sheet investments such as off balance sheet swaps, which are not reported as on balance sheet exposure. You may have reported $1 trillion in bonds, but if that full amount is actually collateralizing a swap for say JPY rates, then your demand for dollars is actually based on the JPY rate.And beyond that, if you needed cash then and there to pay, you may say collateralize more bonds to pay for overnight dollar funding, if you expect the position to return positive at some point, and that is technically a form of “Eurodollar” borrowing as you’re not interacting with the fed to borrow but with another bank through interbank lending
>>54016601Oh please let it be true
>>54018626your "deposit" is nothing more than a loan you give the bank
>>54024251I don’t think you’re wrong necessarily, and I actually think you’ll find there are educated opinions that agree with you. I personally think high inflation can absolutely sustain high rates, as long as the real yield is ostensibly negative it can accomplish the same goals as if you had a net negative rate and low inflation
>>54017244All because dumb fat orange man bullied the pussy Fed chair not to raise rates in the lead up to the election. Said dumb fat orange man still lost, and US economy ended up even more fucked than it should have been.
>>54016320It makes you wonder how many other retards are doing this and if bonds are undervalued with high-yield because retards haven't caught on to the new meta.
>>54024578Cope. This is Biden's economy, troon.
>>54015760fucking Reddit.. SVB went belly up because the interest rate rose, making all their T-bills and other bonds less valuable if they wore to sell. They were forced to sell to meet obligations (the recent downturn caused their customer to withdraw funds), selling at loss at scale is never sustainable. Literally every bank is facing the same problem, they don't have piles of cash, they have piles of cash-equivalent e.g. T-bills, which has a face value significantly less than what it was a year ago.This is gonna snowball..
I drained almost my entire net worth and bought a house last year. The rest at 4.25% 30yr. Stable well paying non tech job. Am I gmi or should i kms now?
>>54019311he did. looool
>>54015718>onal collapse and reversion to stone age barter economy.And that’s a bad thing?
Is there anyway for someone to give us a dummy's tl;dr about what they did and why does a bank's failure be contagious to other banks?I read the articles on the news sites but I am a brainlet with these things. I can't understand what they did.Also I have been informed from people I know that their whole companies they work for have their accounts and salaries in SVP. What happens now to the workers of such companies?
>>54019086oh no no no, even I knew not to do that buddy
>>54027304seems risky when we're, you know, entering a terrible recession
>>54016320All the people she owes money to should be able to use her pussy whenever they please.
>>54015758>2008 financial crisis>fix it by creating massive amounts of inflation>2023 financial crisis w/ 6-8% CPIok now wut?
>>54027471Even if either wife or I lost our jobs we could still make payments?
>>54027516We all know CPI is really around 20%
>>54027516More inflation, NIGGUH
The tech layoffs were already pretty bad, this is going to be a nasty year
>>54019045Man you'll never guess what the UK has declared shut down and may be insolvent
>>54027805kek
>>54026761Would’ve been nice to raise rates while the economy was not shitting the bucket from 2016-2019 so there was some actual fucking wiggle room for rates with COVIDAll because Trump is a retard that only looked at the fucking Dow Jones as his measure of economic health and shit his pants any time there was talk of raising rates
>>54027516CBDCs anon, CBDCs and guaranteed income. Just get the jab and eat the bugs. Check-mateand buy XRP
>>54015718It's a continuation of the plan to impoverish every American they can and rule over them like serfs.
>>54015718I thought they made rules after 2008 to stop this from happening again? >inb4: drumpf or joe.
>>54015833Widescale counterfeiting by entities that self regulate. Simple enough?
>>54027456The bank parked money in assets that would get fucked by higher interest rates, while also serving customers/debtors that would get fucked by higher interest rates. Interest rates went up, so the bank was fucked on all sides by higher interest rates, since almost every sector of its business got fucked by higher interest rates.
>>54028172IT BE DRUMPF FAULTNO IT BE BIDEN FAULTNO IT BE DRUMPF FAULTNO IT BE BIDEN FAULTNO IT BE DRUMPF FAULTNO IT BE BIDEN FAULTNO IT BE DRUMPF FAULTNO IT BE BIDEN FAULT
>>54016320>food truck girl did this
>>54015812>says thing but doesn't elaborate because he can't
>>54016320This is a problem because it means they didn’t hedge their rate exposure.IT COSTS 0.05-0.1% TO HEDGE ON A 0.3-0.5% SPREAD, WHO THE FUCK DOESN'T HEDGE
>>54017042Speak for yourself>HVAC tech / smallscale farmer
> It started with smaller institutionsSVB is literally the second-largest bank collapse in history behind Lehman.
>>54016320Would ravage her brown ass straight
>>54015760People are defaulting though.
>>54028338The FED caused this.
>>54017298All those libtards at least have the fight and fire to go outside for what they believe in, even if it is silly. How does it feel knowing that you have the real theory, but neither the heart nor the gumption to practice?
Why doesn't the government just bail them out?
>>54017800Wanna guess where my dad worked?
>>54015760It wasn’t so much defaulting on loans as it was mortgage backed securities with those mortgages being crap or simply nonexistent. Where one thought they had a AAA rated bond they in fact had nothing. And there was double dipping. And there was extreme overdevelopment of commercial real estate as banks and developers became overzealous.
>>54017841Even if they bought the MBS's long before 6% interest rates, they should have been rebalancing into higher yield bonds as standard practice. As interest rates increase, then fixed-income assets at lower interest rates go down in price because they get dumped for the higher yield securities. So theoretically their MBS's have been losing value for as long as they've been hodling them.
>>54028987Utility work is the safest>sewer worker / homesteader
>>54015718thank god, I have SQQQ shots and need hope to cash in during the crash
>>540157602008 was because of over levering in the housing sectorthis is over leveraging in the tech sector, this started back with FTX crashWhen company's like coinbase where having supper bowl commercials, that was the peak and signal to get out
>>54015760This is a liquid test, guess who will pass and fail
>>54019477You can get a rate of 4 percent from holding cash with no risk to your asset aka housing maintenance, housing is shit rn
>>54016401So its time to buy?
>>54028545kek
>>54017225I don't even want a position within their system.I just want the entire thing to be burnt to ash and drag them from their homes and release the nigger.Boomers and gen X are scum.
>>54015783...because of the FED. The only thing that is allowed to happen is Money printer bailouts.
>>54018040It is you who is sadly mistake. USG prints USD at will
>>54029225Nintendo subsidiary: Blacked
>>54018440>>54018626So you’re telling me it was intentional. An orchestrated disaster. A psyop, if you will, under the veil of plausible deniability.
>>54015718yeah it's the samei even remember a "false summer" in 2007 where people thought things were going to get bettter, just like the last few months lmfao
>>54019878>really onRely you dumb fuck
>>54029369Hell yah fellow real work anon. What are you looking forward to planting this season? I have a neighbor who has been breading garlic for decades and he gave me some cloves to plant.
>>54028156>AS OF TODAY MARCH 2023 I'M PREDICTING A 91% DROP IN REAL ESTATE PRICES >ITS HAPPENING IN AUSTIN >ITS HAPPENING IN CHARLOTTE>ITS HAPPENING IN NASHVILLE>ITS HAPPENING IN ATLANTA>ITS HAPPENING IN THE SAN FRANCISCO B A Y A R E A
>>54020797Don’t suck his dick too hard. There’s laymen errors in his brief summary, e.g. describing doubling as exponential, which makes me lack faith in his intelligence.
>>54015760>trying to force a bank run
>>54018626Please learn what fractional reserve banking is
>>54015718>we came an inch away from total civilizational collapse and reversion to stone age barter economy.No we didn't.
>>54016320all right, this actually explained everything>10 year bond 1.5% rateLMAO
>housing prices may finally fall so I can afford something>oops my bank failed and all my life savings is goneI can smell this in my future.
LISTEN YOU GLOWNIGGER FAGGOTSI DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT YOUR KEKDOLLAR I WILL NOT THROW MY LIFE AWAY TRYING TO KILL RANDOM BRODUDES FROM ANOTHER COUNTRY THAT YOU DESIGNATED AS "EVIL"EAT SHIT GLOWNIGGER. EAT. MY. FUCKING. SHIT.
>>54016597holy fuck this happens so often this is no longer funny
>>54015718I miss wamu.
>>540292892008 HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH MBS YOU FUCKING IDIOT
>>54018040you are a dumbfuck. The dollar is aleays saved and they kick the can down the road for another two presidential terms. Nothing happens.
>>54031741?
300
>>54017298You might struggle to pay the bills but in one of those scenarios at least you don't get strangulated to death anon. Which would you prefer happen to you?
>>54016055Shabos goy repeating the shpiel hes been fed by "its not inflation" snozzleberry Snyder
>>54031098Ha, except anon, they can and did make credit default swaps for synthetic CDO’s and then bundled and sold the fixed leg income from that as more synthetic CDO’s. It was exponential, and that’s on top of all the SCDO’s and MBS used as collateral for short term lending. You don’t get exponential growth without exponential gains.
>>54023621No its a nothingburger, if you've been alive for over longer than being teenager you should know this
>>54018626The majority of the uninsured deposits were in money market accounts by large business accounts well in excess of the 250k the FDIC insures. Those money market accounts are allowed to invest in various financial instruments and assets. Learn how this works before speaking please
>>54019777Repeat after me: the FDIC only insures checking and savings accounts up to 250k. They don't protect money market accounts or businesses holding several million assets. It's only designed to protect normies small bank accounts. It still is ogre of businesses cash reserves are scalped .
>>54017841The way they handled their books makes me wonder if they weren't doing it deliberately.
>>54032222Quads of truth.