/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57133495
i'm a libra

>>57133495
Yeah but this time is different anon. The Jews told me that nothing will ever crash and BTC will be $80k in a few months

>>57133495
wtf happened in 1990 for a reversal

>>57133518
jews dont want btc 80k. its one currency they cant entirely control

>>57133495
>t. Retarded doomerfag still waiting for Europe to freeze over and btc to dump to 12k

>>57133541
In the long run yes but they will still get their $10k entry first

>>57133495
>gdi negative yoy
>unemployment crossed above its 24 month moving average
>lei deeply negative for the last year
recession in 2024 is basically guaranteed, it’s just a question of how soon it will start.

>>57133525
nothing special, there was a recession in 1990.

>>57133518
Unironically this. Powell hit the smooth landing perfectly and we're living through the greatest economic strength of our lifetime.

>>57133525
literally a soft landing by the FED

>>57133613
>>57133658
kek

>>57133495
yield curve inverted 2 years ago, retard

>shaded areas indicate recession
>the area arrows are pointing at is clearly not shaded

>>57134008
lmao this thread is hilarious

>>57133495
I thought you guys are in a recession already? 2 negative quarterly closes? remember?

>>57134060
that was just due to the transitory inflation which is now tamed, now real GDP growth is over 5%. The economy is literally BOOMING right now, with low inflation. Bears are seething as should be expected.
As for me? Well... I just do what daddy Powell tells me to. If he sounds mad, I sell. If he starts sounding happy and optimistic, I buy. He's been sounding happy and optimistic for well over a year now... and not so strangely, so have been the markets.

>>57134122
>real GDP
kek

>>57133658
IMF bets on a soft landing
T. 2007

>>57133495
also the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) rate (the thing that replaced the LIBOR, basically the rate that all other interest rates are calculated off of, the rate at which the banks are willing to lend to each other) just dramatically broke the trend that has been in place since it was implemented (aside from one other single spike)
it's been at 5.31-5.32% for the last year+ except for one single spike to 5.39% last month. and then in the last few days went to 5.35% and just broke its old high, at 5.4%
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr

to me, this looks a lot like it might be connected to the pivot in the Reverse Repo facility
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
which has been draining from 1 trillion back in october steadily down to about 700some billion daily until last week when suddenly it stopped getting smaller/draining and is now rapidly increasing. it just spiked back to 1 trillion today- reversing months of progress
>the numbers Mason what do they MEAN
basically i am full retearded so i could be wrong but i am pretty sure Yellen and Powell's soft landing depends on stability and gradual quantitative tightening in combination with sufficiently restrictive monetary policy to fight inflation.
in recent months inflation has been down (so they say) and jobs have been up (so they say). so they have been decreasing the reverse repo (which big banks use as a source of funding) and theoretically moving towards unwinding the special loan vehicle put in place after Silicon Valley Bank crashed last march.
if the SOFR and Reverse Repo spike, like they've been doing the last few days, then that fucks their soft landing
if interest rates spike, if inflation returns, they will not be able to pivot on the interest rate and will be forced to reintroduce quantitative easing. and shit will hit the fan

bonus: we just broke 1 trillion on interest payments
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

>>57134183
>it's real

>>57133613
lmao

>>57133658
all hail Janet Yellen

>>57133991
OP is saying that we have max 4 months before shit hits the fan (probably less)

>>57134060
just like vaccines, they changed the definition

>>57134268
RRP spikes every quarter and year end, just funds sitting on their cash until rollover. It'll probably deplete fully in April next year.

>>57134272
>An official website of the United States Government.
lmao.
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
>The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting.
when you count accurately, GDP growth has been negative since covid. and no, this isn’t some schizo who just makes up his own numbers. he basically just calculates inflation and other numbers using the formula the government used to use before they changed it (multiple times) in order to get it to spit out a number that fits their narrative better.

>>57133658
Yes, that was why Bush lose to Clinton. But in 1991 real estate crashed, and Home and loans went bye bye.

>>57133495
>>57133518
It actually is different because the federal reserve purchased from $2 trillion to nearly $6 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities. This depresses long term rates. They are slowly offloading much like they are doing with mortgage backed securities. They basically did yield curve control for the bond and mortgage market. While lowering fed funds rate and while the federal government spent like crazy giving everyone money whether with stimmies, covid relief funds and more.

We got an inverted yield curve BECAUSE of the FED. We got 2% mortgage rates BECAUSE of the FED. Now you anons claim that the yield curve projects doom when it only inverted because of the federal reserve's actions. It is going to uninvert because they are selling their holdings during this quantitative tightening period. If the yield curve inverts and the FED did not rapidly buy up stuff then it is GGWP. Expect treasury holdings to level off at around 3 trillion.

>>57134197

>>57134312
do the markets look at John Williams', or the official govt numbers? That's all I care about.

>>57134008
kek
>>57134292
This. It spikes because the total amount of financing available is less at the end of the month, moreso at the end of the year (which is also at the end of a month), so banks under Basel III turn to RRP. It reverts quickly.

>>57134292
ah good to know. i know people have been saying that it'll run out in q2 24. good to know we're still on track.
what caused the SOFR to spike?

>>57134360
I'm mentally deficient and do not understand half of the things you have said in this thread. Anon, how can I become less retarded and more finance savvy like you? I want to learn these Talmudic words of power so that I can escape the grasp of the merchant.

>>57134360
i think the idea is that macroeconomic/geopolitical conditions might force the Fed to adopt emergency QE measures again

>>57134360
primary dealer banks for the NY Fed have been buying more US treasuries again because foreign demand is down- as USTs held by foreign governments come to term they aren't buying more, slowly unwinding their position in US government debt. so primary dealer banks have been taking larger parts of treasury auctions, as i understand it. how does this play into your projections for the future? if i understand correctly, this is more or less private sector yield curve control by structurally important banks, and doesn't seem sustainable.

>>57134445
>what caused the SOFR to spike?
I won't pretend to know, andy constan on twitter could probably tell you.

>>57134457
eat your cum when you jackoff to preserve your chi
t. learned from the best- its what all the Jane Street guys do

>>57133495
I can explain why this indicates that it's not a recession but it's funnier this way.

>>57134479
It doesn't matter until RRP is mostly empty. The more money that comes out of RRP to buy treasuries, the more liquidity sloshing around in the private market. Cuz banks will use those treasuries to borrow even more money into existence. Once RRP is drained, then bank reserves will be targeted directly. Till then, party time.

>>57134457
If you think the more you know the better you'll be in the market then don't bother. The more you know the more you become a bear like me and bears make less money.

>>57134479
The reason why the private sector is picking up the slack is because the foreign purchases were actually adding risk to the market. How so? Foreign purchases were increasing the amount held that could dump on private sector. As the share of foreign holdings decrease, the private sector sees it as less risky because they are not as easily dumped on. I would agree that it is not really sustainable with current federal government issuance, but the issuance is up to the federal government and they can simply issue less if yields get higher than they like. Yellen recently announced that they are going to issue fewer coupons next year and increase the amount of bills. This means that they want long term yields such as the 10 year to decrease next year which makes sense because Biden is up for re-eleciton. In response, the private sector gobbled up more 10 year while the rates were "high" since if less coupons are issued then usually longer-term yields drop. The drop in the 10 year was not all just because the FED said they are thinking of cutting fed funds rate.

>>57134609
I wonder if they accounted for yield on cash carry in that chart?

>>57134609
it could be true, I think I just want to understand things a bit better. I'm new to investing and I've only been using MACD, Moving Averages with EMA Cross and Stoch RSI for TA.
The thing is I don't understand what the knock on effects of real world events are, so when something happens and the market seems to either be shitting itself or cumming bucket loads, I'm always late, and end up either buying the top or trying to short the bottom.

I'm already bearish by nature to be honest, but I'd like to be a little more bullish. I want to believe that things can get better, not just for me but for you guys too.

>>57134788
zoom out, chart the money supply against the stock market, and that answers pretty much everything long term. Oscillators are trash IMO, that's what every newbie gets sold when they show up to a platform. Averages can be useful with other indicators. Just look at price action, volume and volatility, and trade with the trend.

>>57134268
most of those little spikes are taking place at the end of a month.
the dec1 and jan1 spikes are larger than normal

>didn't learn from 2023
Until bears stop proclaiming this is the year, we will stair step to new highs, mostly thanks to glowniggers finding ways to keep gas cheap.