/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.10949355]

Economic Collapse Thread.

Get in here fellow /bears/. ITT we talk about positions we should take to avoid getting absolutely assfucked when the current series of bubbles pops. In the past few months, we've seen Turkey and Argentina shit themselves. More emerging economies are next. The effects of the trade war, Brexit, interest rate hikes, Democrats likely taking back the House in November - all are working and interacting together to ruin your shit.

[Anonymous No.10949408]

All in $TZA $40 Jan'19 calls

[Anonymous No.10949425]

the crash is inevitable. the only reason it hasn't happened yet is because the particular reasons that will be told for it happening haven't fully been setup yet. 2019-2020 is when the shit flies. if you're still in the market now, you will slowly bleed until the crash. lock in profits now and sit back and wait for a while. buy back in at lower than half price when it blows over. this is an excellent opportunity to create a lot of wealth for yourself. good luck, bros.

[Anonymous No.10949431]

>>10949355
Silver bug anon here, if you aren't buying physical Ag you're an idiot

[Anonymous No.10949439]

theyre using every trick in the book to keep markets up though.

what will be the catalyst? Interest rates? the treasury yield reversing?

[Anonymous No.10949449]

past performance does not guarantee future returns.
I suspect a hell of a lot of bobos are going to be btfo in the next 2 years.

[Anonymous No.10949486]

>>10949425
Oh god oh god should I just sleep in my car and stock pile cash and BTC?
Is there a point in paying off student loans or should I carry the debt for a couple years and see what happens first to take advantage of such an opportunity?

[Anonymous No.10949521]

>>10949439
Soros said markets were supposed to collapse I think in the 80s but legislation propt it up and no one knows what's going on since.
Death is knocking but no one's letting him in.

[Anonymous No.10949543]

Remember to have some fiat at hand because vendors are jews.

[Anonymous No.10949603]

>>10949355
>we've seen Turkey and Argentina shit themselves

argiefren here

the reason we are going down the toilet its our own lack of capacity to cut down expenses. the country has been a lot of years in deficit relying on foreign help. now that those $$$ are going back to the US, we have no funding + no plan, so we went to the IMF.

[Anonymous No.10949639]

>>10949603
over-simplifying it
you've taken shit decisions for decades

[Anonymous No.10949656]

>>10949639
How fucked are you guys? Give it to me straight. Is this all bullshit or will there be blood on the streets?

[Anonymous No.10949668]

>>10949639

yeah, pretty much what i said

i dont know about the global current state of economy, but for these reasons i wouldnt take Argentina as an example of the world going down the toilet

[Anonymous No.10949682]

>>10949355
Slight downtrend they use Jewish financial magic to send most of the depression to third world countries while the US experiences a recession.

I fucking love Jews so much, just live close to them and everything will be all right.

[Anonymous No.10949711]

>>10949656

i would say its in the middle. no blood on the streets for sure for the next months

but the bigger picture is a little bit complex. biggest companies are now involved in the biggest corruption case of our history, so as you can guess, private investment is about to fall on an all time low

[Anonymous No.10949732]

we're going to the damn moon because everyone thinks the crash is right around the corner. you won't believe the gains in the coming years. bet on it

[Anonymous No.10949740]

>>10949355
Meh, just look at the yield curve and sell your stocks 6 months after reversing, after that you can buy bond ST/MT bond etf and you're good to go.
Once the recession is over go balls deep 3x etf, ez.

[Anonymous No.10949809]

>>10949355
The markets will crash sometime during the 2020 election primaries to make Trump look bad. This is why it was a stupid decision for him to take credit for new ATH in the market, wtf is he going to say/do when it all comes crashing down?

[Anonymous No.10949817]

>>10949408
>"All in" on options. 100% in.
>might not actually understand what "all in" means.
Pessimists are supposed to be more cautious than this.

[Anonymous No.10950170]

>>10949639
Blood on streets in 18 months.

[Anonymous No.10950278]

>>10949809
He will blame China

[Anonymous No.10950327]

In case any of you still bullish on the overall market and economy at large let me remind you of:

- Tech companies sitting on massive inventories
- Q2 growth rate likely peak
- Inequality higher than it has ever been, dragging on consumer spending
- US govt investment as % of GDP is at postwar low of 3.35%, and corporations aren't picking up the slack, opting instead to sit on trillions
- Market driven to current highs by buyback bonanza
- Fed rate increases are going to make emerging economies that are heavily indebted (like Turkey and Argentina) start to feel the pain
- Net FDI to the United States headed to 2008 levels


Upcoming events to keep eyes on:
- Fed meeting in late September
- Notes coming due for Tesla in November and March, will test capital markets
- November elections
- Brexit in March
- Holiday spending numbers
- Effects of trade war

[Anonymous No.10950752]

I can't say I'm convinced by precious metals as a store of value during an economic crisis but then again I don't really know much about the subject.

By checking out the gold price chart I can see a pretty intense bull run for gold starting around Q3 2017, can this be partially attributed to people buying gold as a hedge to the shitty economic conditions emerging at the time? There's no such trend to be seen for silver so I'm assuming it must be down to something else.

Otherwise given the levels of adoption in Turkey and Venezuela I'd say that bitcoin has a pretty decent shout as being a solid crisis-currency to weather the storm in. As far as actual currencies go, how would the Swiss franc fare as a store of value?

>>10950327
Another issue to note is the general financial and political instability within the EU- especially the Southern European countries are up to their necks in debt, with debt to GDP percentages of 178% for Greece, 132% for Italy, 126% for Portugal, and 97% for France, with no signs of decreasing anytime soon. Couple that with a lot of disgruntlement towards the EU as an institution amongst countries like Italy, Poland and France and you have a recipe for potential disaster, especially if secession is on the cards.

[Anonymous No.10950801]

>>10950752
lets just say this. if you lived in turkey iran or argentina and you had bitcoin or gold instead of their currencys you would still have all your money while everyone else got poor overnight

[Anonymous No.10950839]

is coming if you draw a big picture.
Stocks ath, gold and silver down.
> whales are accumulating
and folks looks at stocks
States having a default can't buy gold, so look for crypto and folks will buy crypto
> whales are accumulating

crypto and stocks will crash both
>whales are accumulating

[Anonymous No.10950990]

>>10949656
Blood on the streets sooner or later. This is why the big push for gun control. Politicians trying to survive because they know they are guilty. The ones pushing the hardest are the most guilty.

[Anonymous No.10951009]

>>10949682
You will be the first to get the gas

[Anonymous No.10951390]

do i buy silver eagles or go robinhood SLV?

[Anonymous No.10951408]

>>10949431
what about JNUG?

[Anonymous No.10951445]

>>10950839
Are you saying people will flock to gold and crypto?

[Anonymous No.10951494]

Noone has ever gone broke from having too much cash

[Anonymous No.10951620]

>>10951445
already for stocks and soon for crypto

> whales are accumulating (gold and silver fyi)

[Anonymous No.10951629]

>>10951620
Thanks Anon.

[Anonymous No.10951637]

Everyone on this thread should kill themselves :) Im so happy you faggots lost all your money on metals while my market is at all time highs
I hope you all suffer worse than you already are

[Anonymous No.10951643]

>>10950752
>Swiss franc
That's an interesting beast because, as stable as the country might be, if the frac appreciates too much too fast against the euro, the competitiveness of Swiss businesses plummets relative to their EZ counterparts in the countries surrounding them. So they're somewhat tied to the euro even though they don't use it. What if the euro has a crisis? What will the SNB do? They'd be in a pickle.

[Anonymous No.10951679]

why nobody of u want to buy livestock or plants seeds?

[Anonymous No.10951703]

>>10951494
Apparently, you've never been to Zimbabwe.

[Anonymous No.10951724]

>>10951679
I live in a resort town and the town council has outlawed the keeping of livestock within the town boundaries.

[Anonymous No.10951730]

>>10951679
they spoil too quickly

[Anonymous No.10951779]

>>10951730
A jar of heirloom seeds won't spoil that quickly and will be worth its weight in gold in any post-finance situation.

[Anonymous No.10951790]

>>10951494
Well this is just plain false

[Anonymous No.10951808]

>>10951637
this crisis will lead an increase of military expenditure, and metals market will jupiter and we will return to gold standard adjusted.
In order of best store of value will follow stocks, crypto, and last currencies

[Anonymous No.10951821]

>>10949355
Can someone explain to a brainlet how to get rich from this? I have $55k in crypto and absolutely no idea about the real world financial markets

[Anonymous No.10951823]

>>10951808
but deutsche vaterland has half of gold reserve of us gold reserve and chinese dama like to hoard gold won't them benefit the most?

[Anonymous No.10951855]

>>10951823

If China moves to a transparent gold standard, that will 100% become the global reserve currency, because Chris na is the biggest creditor nation in the world (the same way the US dollar became the reserve currency until big-government types wrecked it with no survivors over the last 70 years)

[Anonymous No.10951867]

>>10951643
The SNB will buy more €. Problem is they already own ~500b as they had to have a look that it doesn't fall under 1CHF. They also bound the CHF at the € at the rate of 1:1.15 for almost a year, so yeah, you're right that CHF is closely linke to the €

[Anonymous No.10952050]

>>10951867
The interesting thing will be if the euro crashes relative to other big currencies like the USD and what-not. Like, what if the euro loses 40% in six months? The SNB can trade francs for euros to keep their ratio close, but ultimately, that'll push the franc right down with the euro. Will they be comfortable with the franc also dropping 40% relative to the USD? At some point, maybe they just let it roll.

[Anonymous No.10952080]

>>10951867
Maybe a better way to phrase that would be: what if the euro hyperinflates? I don't think the SNB would hyperinflate to keep the ratio.

[Anonymous No.10952113]

>>10951855
And then we can usher in a dark age of global trade as the only navy fit to police the world collapses with the economy supporting it. Every global reserve currency has involved a navy to control shipping lanes and prevent the need for every country to create levies to support their disparate navies. Literally been this way for over a thousand years and China being unfit to project force past diesel range eliminates them from the running.

[Anonymous No.10952127]

>>10949439
#DeclaringStudentLoanBankrupcy

Or something like that

[Anonymous No.10952176]

so what are some good careers to weather a collapse? best i've got is hvac

[Anonymous No.10952337]

>>10949809
>implying trump will be in office in 2020
Do you read the news? That nigga is going full Nixon

[Anonymous No.10952459]

>>10951494
Yes, I would like one loaf of bread.
Okay that will be 1 billion Zimbabwe bux.

[Anonymous No.10952470]

>>10951821
Pick a managed fund that did well in the last 15-20 years and wait.
About 10-20% is the maximum you can get. Don't be greedy.

[Anonymous No.10952686]

>>10951494
Arent Venezuelans wiping their ass with cash?

[Anonymous No.10953172]

>>10951643
>>10951867

Interesting stuff anons, appreciate your contributions.

Most fiat currencies seem pretty unsafe to me given the dependence on easy credit and debt that has been the trend of the last decade or so, especially given that interest rates will be on the rise.

Are there really no other hedging alternatives besides bitcoin and physically hoarding previous metals?

[Anonymous No.10953425]

>>10951494
>what is the great depression
>what is the collapse of spain's currency
>what is tulip mania

[Anonymous No.10953940]

$TN company valuations mirror $20k BTC

[Anonymous No.10954321]

>>10950801
If the economy crashes the value of gold goes with it

[Anonymous No.10954354]

>>10952127
There's been a ton of talk on this thread about the Euro and BTC but nobody is talking about how the USD is about to lose its most important store of value: physical safety. American wealth is unbalanced to a tipping point and you can see it in neighborhoods and cities with mansions hidden in the top 20 floors of skyscrapers while people live on the sidewalk. There is an entire generation with nothing to lose, coupled with a large African American population in cities that have become extremely hateful towards the government for the past 60 years. Some of the richest neighborhoods in America only have one or two roads connecting them to the outside world, and these roads now usually have police on them blocking anyone without a serious reason to be there. Very soon it will not be safe for the rich to live anywhere near American cities without having their possessions destroyed/stolen to an extent. This is also happening in England, see their recent parade barricades.

so if I was the federal reserve, and I was protecting rich people, i would
>increase interest rates
>foreign countries suddenly become strapped for USD
>USD gains value because demand
>Cash out all of your USD/US Stocks at ATH
>buy BTC because finite amount
>buy precious metals because finite amount/needed for science and war
>poorest counties with weakest currencies buy into BTC first, become rich
>richest countries with strongest currencies buy into BTC last, become poor
>entire economy gets turned on its head with richest of the rich still on top

[Anonymous No.10954483]

>>10949682
ikr? JEWS RULE!!

[Anonymous No.10954732]

>>10954354
>implying countries aren't buying massive amounts of cryptos

[Anonymous No.10954862]

>>10951494
Hello zoomer. If recommend not posting in the future till you learn some basic history

[Anonymous No.10954908]

>>10952337
>ooga booga collusion is real
>being this fucking retarded

[Anonymous No.10955671]

>>10949486
you should calm down

[Anonymous No.10955702]

sure is zerohedge in here, too bad you've missed an amazing run

[Anonymous No.10955763]

Doesn't look as bad from here

[Anonymous No.10955837]

I finally paid off all my debt and I'm stocking up on crypto and PM (already have a house I'm renting out for real estate gains). I'm also stacking cash to move into the stock market but I haven't identified any buy targets yet. I'd like to get in on oil companies but need to do my homework.

If it crashes tomorrow I'll probably just start pumping the cash I have into stocks with the best asset/cap ratio I can find and hope for the best. Definitely going to avoid tech companies and financial companies.

[Anonymous No.10956580]

>>10949355
dotcom bubble? explain a brainlet

[Anonymous No.10956724]

>>10949355
This is a chart of the Fed's monetary tightening policy calender. They're selling UST (United States Treasuries) and MBS (Mortgage-backed securities). Now watch how the two coincide when they buy and when they sell,

[Anonymous No.10956730]

>>10956724

Notice how much they are dumping in one single day on October 31st. It'll be priced in and potentially cause a market route (a small one) in order to shake things up for the mid terms, especially given how Trump has taken full credit for the market rally since his election

[Anonymous No.10956742]

>>10956730

Moreover, the share buybacks by the FAANGs are basically the only thing keeping up the markets at this point. So much for diversification, right?

[Anonymous No.10956743]

>>10956730
whats ganna happen?

[Anonymous No.10956750]

>>10956742

They're buying, and buying, and that's how companies like Apple hit their $1T market cap, along with Amazon joining too. But there is a catch to all this buying back - it's financed mostly through debt

[Anonymous No.10956761]

>>10956750

... Debt which we can see in this image.

[Anonymous No.10956770]

>>10956761

Keep this all in mind when the Federal Reserve is tightening the money supply AND raising interest rates in conjunction

[Anonymous No.10956778]

>>10956770

Institutional investors know what's up, and they are fleeing the scene. Other on the other hand are racking up risky assets to deliver yields they have promised. Oh and also /biz/ people opening trading accounts for the first time ever and piling in on the all time high

[Anonymous No.10956786]

>>10956778

The correlation isn't pretty, and there will be a lot of people here and elsewhere who will be caught in the door way as they rush for the exits. These are going to be some of the heaviest bags ever

[Anonymous No.10956794]

>>10956786

All that, and also the yield spread is pinching together meaning short term risk is giving almost as much as long term risk. Something around the corner is being priced in ;)

[Anonymous No.10956801]

>>10956786
To where to we exit though? Basically anything is in a bubble. Inverse ETFs, PMs? Tell me senpai

[Anonymous No.10956822]

>>10956794

All in all, pull out and buy EDZ in the mean time as the thrashing continues. South Africa has just entered a recession with 2 negative GDP quarters this year, Brazil is hurting with their own GDP print and China's markets have been in bear territory for months. It's only a matter of time before the sweet inflow of foreign money ends and the debt becomes too heavy. Too many people forgot that the music can actually stop and there won't be enough chairs to go around

[Anonymous No.10956826]

>>10949740
This. The Rothschilds and other megariche have been doing this for generations and yet no one else can seem to figure it out.

>>10949809
This

>>10954908
with a side of this

[Anonymous No.10956844]

>>10956801
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EDZ?p=EDZ

Play this using the Slow Stochastic Oscillator. Bought today because the signal is just right

[Anonymous No.10956916]

>>10956844

Also do it using 4H or 1D candlesticks, see for yourself how accurate the SSTO is

Goodnight for now

[Anonymous No.10956917]

>>10956844
Is it just me or is EDZ slowly rising. If you look at the monthly chart it has this very ominous pattern. But there's no fucking way this shit is going to 10,000+ a share again.

[Anonymous No.10956942]

>>10956917
Yeah wow it's almost like leveraged etfs always decay over time

[Anonymous No.10957039]

Well this thread is terrifying...

[Anonymous No.10957068]

>>10954483
based sam poster who is actually him

[Anonymous No.10957127]

You mean Trumps tax policies? It's like Republicans fuck everything up and then blame democrats when they go in and fix things. Last surplus was bill clinton.

[Anonymous No.10957159]

>>10949682
They will all move to Israel and lock us all out

[Anonymous No.10957390]

>>10953172
>alternatives
Land? Not that I can afford any..

[Anonymous No.10957571]

>>10949355
So fuck it my stocks are on an ATH (I bought in way before this run) and my cryptos are currently down only 80% from ATH.

Should I sell stocks and get more crypto? When will the economy bubble pop? This year? After christmas?

[Anonymous No.10957595]

>>10957571
Yep. Also dump your retirement - it's a honey pot that won't be there when you need it.

[Anonymous No.10957607]

>>10957127
> thinks voting matters
> thinks the blue tie pedophiles are better than the red tie pedophiles

[Anonymous No.10957798]

So buy bitcoin, gold, and leveraged bear ETFs against China? Anything else?

[Anonymous No.10957820]

>>10957798

Have your exit strategy mapped out, broader society is already getting more belligerent and antagonistic when the shits at all time high.

[Anonymous No.10957829]

>>10949425
Never understood this strategy.

You fiat value will be worth less too - do people forget this? Your $10,000 will not be able to buy you $10,000 worth of stock if it then is valued at <$5,000

[Anonymous No.10958007]

>>10949439
>Interest rates?
historically has been the catalysis...once they start to rise, they keep rising until a crash inevitably happens. Think how low the interest is right now...the market can't take that big of a hike

>>10949431
>MUH ANTI MICROBIAL, this is a speculative asset...silver is a junk metal Anon, at least gold is used in electronics & jewellery...the only ppl that buy silver are to poor to buy gold...

[Anonymous No.10958169]

>>10951703
And you have cunt? What sort of dumbass statement is that. Next time you go to post do us all a favour and just fucking don't. Dense mongrel cunt.

[Anonymous No.10958244]

>>10957595
I cancelled my pension scheme last month. There will be no pension handout the GOVT's will use it to bail out their failed economy.

I'm using what little amount I'd be putting into it - into Bitcoin. Normies call me crazy but we will see which is more profitable in 20 years time.

[Anonymous No.10958280]

Can we run the odds on America being a single unified country after the crash?

Personally, Im taking my profits and moving to Austria.

[Anonymous No.10958297]

>>10956801

Bitcoin ofcourse you dense cunt. Yes it inflates alongside everything else but its a deflationary asset nonetheless.

[Anonymous No.10958305]

What about shorting tech companies? or shorting everything?

[Anonymous No.10958349]

>>10957127

>lower taxes is a bad thing

Ive found the village brainlet guys. Usa is going to crash anyway. All his policies point at softening the fall.

[Anonymous No.10958459]

>>10958349
>lowering taxes is trump's only economic policy

found the illiterate who learned politics in the american school system.

[Anonymous No.10958595]

>>10958007 silver actually has higher industrial use case than gold. Global mining reserves also deplete faster.

[Anonymous No.10958637]

>>10958459

Yes he also cuts regulation, cuts forced obama care, decentralizes the federal goverment in favour of stronger states while keeping up strong spending in military, infrastructure, technological advancement and border security.

Its called prepping for global financial collapse and global conflict you dumb fucking liberal. And for the record, im not an american. I thoroughly enjoy Trump's trade policies btfo'ing globalists.

[Anonymous No.10958713]

>>10949521
the elite doesnt want it to crash cause they are living lavish lifestyles. Growth has to continue they want the world as one, globalization is a fact.

[Anonymous No.10958742]

>>10958713

Crash to remove existing structures. Instable goverments are easy to manipulate.

[Anonymous No.10958817]

>>10956822
based yellow poster
what the fuck does one read to even start understanding your USD rune talk?

[Anonymous No.10958923]

>>10958742
while i agree with the globalists wanting to crash or destabilize states in order to manipulate them
it seems that lately the world has been waking up to globalists' ruses, especially the people in places where this said destabilization is taking place
look at syria when assad seems to be more in power than ever, ukraine where poroshenko is likely to stay for a long time, egypt where every egyptian seems to blame USA and the jews for all the bullshit happening. Similar in states like Iran, Best Korea, Russia and Venezuela where no government change seems possible or wanted.
one of the exceptions is i guess Iraq but it's basically a non-state soon to be broken apart and controlled by israelis, kurds and americans

[Anonymous No.10959085]

I love reading about this and how you could possibly predict or see the signs however I don't understand most of what I'm reading here.

Are there any good books about macro economics that go over this stuff and the relationships between it?

I studied some economics so I don't need a boon explaining me supply and demand...

Thanks in advance.

[Anonymous No.10959152]

>>10949355
Car bubble. I see porches Mercedes and all sorts of new luxury cars people are now financing. It's gonna be big.

[Anonymous No.10959186]

>>10959152
I keep thinking how the fuck do car manufacturers find people that buy new cars? Who is retarded enough? I bought my car with a mileage of 20k km at a 50% discount and it's running with 1 major repair for like 5 years now.

[Anonymous No.10959253]

>>10959186
just shut up and drive more so we can feed the machine

[Anonymous No.10959286]

>>10957039
You know what's truly terrifying? All of this has been true for the past few YEARS. There is nothing new in these threads that we didn't know last year. And yet the markets keep rallying and rallying. This will be a once in a century crash.

[Anonymous No.10959404]

>>10959286
>This will be a once in a century crash.
time to be greedy when everyone else is fearful
when will we know where the bottom lies

[Anonymous No.10959405]

>>10959286
here we go baby. this will continue to moon. WARBULLS

[Anonymous No.10959453]

It's not an "everything" bubble it's another tech bubble

[Anonymous No.10959493]

>>10959286
FYI something has changed though...Earlier this year the FED have stopped buying stocks with QE money, it still appears they are buying volatility on the VIX though....

[Anonymous No.10959579]

I'm living pay check to pay check. I can't afford to prepare. Please help anons

[Anonymous No.10959671]

>>10959579
Stop living pay check to pay check. Leave your house. Get a van and live in that. Get a gym membership take a shower there.

[Anonymous No.10959742]

Brainlet here, why is hoarding cash better than buying US and Euro government bonds?

[Anonymous No.10959770]

>>10959742
it's not, unless you want liquidity

[Anonymous No.10959772]

>>10959742
I THINK HOLOCHAIN SUCKS

[Anonymous No.10959847]

>>10958595
this, there were some shortages for a few months a few years ago

[Anonymous No.10959864]

>>10959742
>Not buying gold

[Anonymous No.10960121]

>>10956786
How did they research "smart money"?

[Anonymous No.10960146]

>>10959186
The vast majority of new cars are sold on finance schemes, which are then packaged and sold on by the finance company as bonds. The majority of these are sub prime and will turn toxic the moment interest rates rise. Sound familiar?

[Anonymous No.10960177]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Le4RldNqMk

[Anonymous No.10960188]

>>10960146
So I can short Volkswagen now?

[Anonymous No.10960189]

[Anonymous No.10960207]

>>10952470
real boomer shit

[Anonymous No.10960246]

>>10960188
Could be an option. Unfortunately it's pretty impossible to short the banks holding the packaged debt instruments, because its extremely difficult to find out which banks are holding them, as its not publicly available information.

But yes, in theory car manufacturers will suffer from a massive decrease in sales as they can no longer rely on selling cars to idiots that can't afford them through absurdly cheap finance schemes brought about by low central bank interest rates.

[Anonymous No.10960299]

>>10960189
Fucking kek, saved

[Anonymous No.10960348]

>>10949425
how do you think utility stocks will fare? people will sill need to buy electricity and water and gas after the crash.

[Anonymous No.10960406]

>>10960348
Utilities and consumer staples are generally defensive and so will not get BTFO as much as other sectors during a crash, but the shares would still get sold off

[Anonymous No.10960443]

>>10949355
You and your DAMN dubs. Thanks OP for ruining the market kek

[Anonymous No.10960547]

>>10958007
Gold is in a huge bubble, where as silver is a steal atm.

[Anonymous No.10960649]

>>10955763
>averaging out the wealth of Bezos and wagekeks
Yea, its retarded.

[Anonymous No.10960729]

>>10949355
It’s just volatility tbqh. Bring it on, I see that clear rising channel. Higher highs higher bottoms. I’ll buy. Watch treasury yields, it’s still in good shape, market knows fed needs to raise rates soon and expects that. My opinion two corrections and a bear market around 2020. Flat until then and maybe a slow grind up. No full blown recession unless yields invert. I’m 40% cash.
>>10960348
Fuck off with gas, oil goes wacky in recessions. Not something I’d seek for stability

[Anonymous No.10960810]

>>10952127
We could make this happen... If we somehow pitch it as helping the wh*te race on /pol/ we could weaponize their autism and buy cheap houses

[Anonymous No.10960936]

>>10960547
nothing is cheap/expensive...if its 'cheap' that is cause the market doesn't like it....if its 'expensive' the market likes it......

What you are basically sayin is, the market is dumb & i know more than the market (with out having inside info)....

[Anonymous No.10960964]

>>10958817
>>10956822
seconding this, would like to read some books and learn more

[Anonymous No.10960977]

>>10957829
Fiat is not necessary worthless. It is only worthless in the context of economic and monetary policy to address a financial seism. What you have to understand is that for something like the USD, practically all dollars have a corresponding debt associated with it. This means that if the markets were to crash and the US government and the Fed refused to print money, cash would have tremendous purchasing power as debtors defaults left and right. Bond holders would acquire assets cheaply through these defaults and debtors would be looking to liquidate any assets they have to prevent default on debt and asset seizure.

The Fed will probably never let that kind of situation happen but they likely will allow some sort of deflation/disinflation to occur so that the banks can swindle debtors who cannot handle the P&I payments. It is during this period that cash has increasing purchasing power and it is during this time that investors should be looking to acquire cheap assets. After this period, the Fed will depreciate the currency and attempt to reflate the system. This is the period that cash loses purchasing power.

However, the Fed has very obviously done this twice already in the dot-com and housing bubbles (there were prior incidents such as the Plaza Accord, the Latin American debt crisis) and the rest of the world is getting sick of these fraud induced crises. The big question the time there is a fianncial crisis is whether the rest of the world plays along or tells the US to stuff it. If the rest of the world does not cooperate, the Fed's attempt to reflate will cause a dollar crisis. That is when something like gold and other hard assets will protect purchasing power.

[Anonymous No.10961012]

>going to trade school
>learning a skill that will always be needed
>got crypto
>got survival skills
>prepared for innawoods and innacity

come at me

[Anonymous No.10961019]

>>10959186
>Who is retarded enough?
Most people who have a job that earns them enough that they can keep rolling loans over for cars that they really can't afford. These people are nothing but debt slaves and they're too stupid to realize it. Most of them will retire in their late 60s or early 70s with zero or negative net worth and will pray to God that Social Security or whatever pension plan they have doesn't go bust.

[Anonymous No.10961029]

Anybody else loading up on low interest debt? I dont mearly want to make it in the next recession, I'd like to fuck the banks too if possible. If inflation hits 10% and I have a few hundred thousand in debt at 4%,( that I used to buy real assets like investment property + small stake in gold), then I'm double winning.

[Anonymous No.10961042]

>>10959453
Wrong. It's an everything bubble because at heart it's a credit bubble. The money is currently flooding into technology stocks but real estate and bonds have also been goosed to sky high levels. Depending on when this bubble bursts, the sloshing money may decide to move to another sector if technology starts floundering.

[Anonymous No.10961078]

>>10960977
or dare I say it? BITCOIN>?

[Anonymous No.10961104]

>>10949809
fuck no, its gonna be used to keep him in power.

[Anonymous No.10961178]

>>10961078
I'm not convinced that bitcoin will be a good way to protect purchasing power in the event of a global financial crisis. Bitcoin will be useful for escaping capital controls if you're in a country that enacts them but the disinflationary/deflationary phase of the crisis, I don't see bitcoin as a good asset to buy.

[Anonymous No.10961232]

>>10961029
That's a good plan but you'd better be sure you can may the P&I payments even if whatever assets you buy stop generating cashflow for a few months or even a few years.

[Anonymous No.10961240]

Interesting

[Anonymous No.10961534]

>>10951494
>Ancient Rome
>Weimar Republic
>Great Depression
>Zimbabwe
>Venezuela

Should've stayed in college

[Anonymous No.10961550]

>>10960977
I feel like a retard not understanding this all.

>debtors defaults left and right
If the dollar has a higher purchasing power why would they default? Wouldn't their money be worth more thus they can stop bankruptcy happening?

>the rest of the world is getting sick of these fraud induced crises
Basically the FED creates or at least controls market crashes so US banks can acquire cheap assets in US and the outside world.

[Anonymous No.10961561]

>>10961178
>I'm not convinced that bitcoin will be a good way to protect purchasing power in the event of a global financial crisis. Bitcoin will be useful for escaping capital controls if you're in a country that enacts them but the disinflationary/deflationary phase of the crisis, I don't see bitcoin as a good asset to buy.
why?

[Anonymous No.10961581]

I'm the anon who dumped the charts last night explaining why we are headed for disaster

EDZ is up as promised

Warning: The Chinchillas are playing the flute. I repeat, the chinchillas are playing the flute.

[Anonymous No.10961588]

You want that $50,000 Bitcoin? Then let the value of the US Dollar fall more and more.

Crypto > Everything else.

[Anonymous No.10961596]

>>10961581
lmao

[Anonymous No.10961735]

>>10961581
I read your posts anon, very informative. I am not into stocks myself, where should I be looking to invest my money or should I wait?

[Anonymous No.10961763]

>>10961550
>If the dollar has a higher purchasing power why would they default? Wouldn't their money be worth more thus they can stop bankruptcy happening?
The problem occurs because we are talking about entities who have debt. The interest and the principal on that debt must be paid. The Fed has started a monetary tightening during which they will be selling their bonds and MBS. When they sell these bonds and MBS, that means the buyer must part with money to buy them (the Fed gets the money). Thus, money is being taken out of system.

As money is taken out of the system, less money flies around. Some entities that have debt will eventually find money more difficult to come by. For starters, tighter monetary policy typically results in less consumer action which reduces cashflow in the system. Those companies/entites that are on the edge will eventually get to a point where they can't make their interest payments. When a debt goes into default, it is typically the right of the bond holder to take control of some asset. For housing, the owner of the mortgage can foreclose on the person who bought the house. If there is enough equity in the house, it is very worthwhile for the mortgage owner to foreclose on the homeowner.

The greater purchasing power of money isn't going to help an entity in debt because it has no money but it does have debt which must be serviced. As large quantities of debtors liquidate assets to raise money to service debt, it creates a self-reinforcing spiral where further asset sales further strenghen the money. (Actually, the money strengthens relative to the asset. It's not strictly necessary that the true purchasing power of money rises.)

[Anonymous No.10961777]

>>10961735

Hold cash, maybe buy silver because it's at a record discount. Ignore anyone shilling crypto currency. As I said, I am trading EDZ based on the slow stochastic indicator. Emerging markets will be the first to die as they borrowed too much cheap USD, and now the rates are rising and money is tightening. They have no choice but to sell at any cost to repay the debt

[Anonymous No.10961796]

>>10961561
In a crisis, people rush into good assets and eschew bad assets. I'm not convinced that bitcoin is a good asset and it definitely has problems of liquidity and wide-acceptance. Central banks own gold and SDRs. To the best of our knowledge, they don't own any cryptocurrencies. Unless you think the central banks are going to shrivel up and go away, I'd place my bets with the house.

[Anonymous No.10961807]

>>10961796
that seems reasonable, but gold is illiquid, too, and carries with it a bunch of other problems
plenty of people, even weird NEETs here on 4chan, have $100k in crypto and manage it easily, but having $100k in gold is a pain in the ass for the average bloke

[Anonymous No.10961837]

>>10961807
Do you research and check on the liquidity of gold versus cryptocurrencies. There is no comparison.

[Anonymous No.10961857]

>>10961837
All I know is that I could dump BTC easily in a matter of seconds from the comfort of my sofa, but I have to go down to the local scam shop and take a minimum of a 15% haircut AND get a bunch of KYCAML docs filed against me if I want to dump gold.

Whether gold is objectively more liquid globally or for the very wealthy I guess might be a separate issue, but I know for me it's just no contest.
>inb4 lunch money

[Anonymous No.10962032]

>>10961763
Thanks for explaining it.

[Anonymous No.10962075]

>>10961857
You can just as easily do the same with gold if you own it through Gold Money, Bullion Vault, or one of the ETFs such as GLD, PHYS, or SGOL. If you own physical gold, there are other reasons for owning it but liquidity is still remarkable in that you can find a coin shop or gold exchange in just about any city in any civilized country on the planet.

You'll be trading with other crypto currency speculators. I'm not sure liquidity will be there when you need it and almost certainly not at a price you like.

[Anonymous No.10962078]

>>10962075
>if you own it through Gold Money, Bullion Vault, or one of the ETFs such as GLD, PHYS, or SGOL
lmao you don't own the gold then, completely defeating the purpose of holding gold

[Anonymous No.10962144]

>>10962078
You don't hold it in your hands but some of them offer allocated storage in your name. It's a trade-off for improved liquidity. If you don't mind toting around physical metal and taking it to a bullion trader, you'll still have liquidity but you won't be able to liquefy in a few seconds in the middle of the night.

I could also go on about the durability of metal assets versus something that can be destroyed, forgotten, or easily lost. You in a sense have similar problems as a person who must trust as a custodian of allocated metals.

What if the cryptocurrency exchange gets hacked? What if you lose your private key? If you store your private key on a token, what if the token is corrupted or destroyed? If you print out your private key, what happens if the piece of paper is destroyed? If you put the printed private key in a bank, what if someone at the bank steals that scrap of paper and steals all your cryptocoins?

[Anonymous No.10962153]

>>10951730
Beans and rice have an indefinite shelf life and are dirt cheap. Look it up

[Anonymous No.10962237]

>>10962153
When it happens ppl will stop callin you 'beaner' wont they beaner

[Anonymous No.10962294]

>>10962144
>Not having your own private wallet
Anon...

[Anonymous No.10962297]

>>10962144
>What if the cryptocurrency exchange gets hacked? What if you lose your private key? If you store your private key on a token, what if the token is corrupted or destroyed? If you print out your private key, what happens if the piece of paper is destroyed? If you put the printed private key in a bank, what if someone at the bank steals that scrap of paper and steals all your cryptocoins?
this shit is all trivial, there are easy solutions to all of this that take literally seconds etc but I'm not going to detail them

DYOR on this it's important if you have crypto you goober

[Anonymous No.10962349]

Will crypto be a safe haven for people looking to dodge the crash?
Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela seem to paint a case for crypto as a safu haven.

Does wall street know this is coming and are preparing onramps from fiat to crypto ( Bakkt, CBOE, NASDAQ listings etc)?

[Anonymous No.10962503]

>>10959152
>>10959186
>>10959253
>>10960146
https://automotivelogistics.media/intelligence/rising-inventory-stock-lots

Auto inventory has been on the rise so yeah the numbers do add up to doom.

[Anonymous No.10962513]

>>10962297
I have no cryptocurrencies and I have no intention of ever buying them as a hedge against financial mayhem. One of the the fields in which I have worked is information security and the threats I enumerated are real and are every bit as risky if not moreso if I have a business relationship with a bullion bank. Truly securing cryptocurrencies that you intend to trade is far from a trivial thing.

That said, for those who are careful, I'm sure they have very little to worry about in terms of cryptocurrency theft or loss. Likewise, I am quite confident that my bullion will not be stolen or lost. We are on this topic because you are promoting cryptocurrencies by disparaging the safety of owning bullion through trustees.

[Anonymous No.10962514]

>>10952176
Air force officer, just got in. When there's martial law I'll be all set up

[Anonymous No.10962525]

>>10962513
controlling your own crypto (in your own wallet) and taking proper measures in the handling of your keys is both trivial and significantly more secure than owning gold shares

[Anonymous No.10962571]

>>10949425
What are the best types of stock to invest in post crash?

[Anonymous No.10962684]

>>10962571
Cattle stock

[Anonymous No.10962868]

>>10962684
Whats the best cattle to invest in

[Anonymous No.10962895]

Buy Glock pistols and Colt AR15s for as cheap as you can possibly find them, and as many as you can possibly store. I can hardly think of a more secure investment.

[Anonymous No.10962999]

>>10962895
unironically this

[Anonymous No.10963030]

>>>/pol/

[Anonymous No.10963183]

>>10959253
I'm sorry but human beings are fucking retarded.

[Anonymous No.10963597]

>>10962349
If anyone genuinely thinks crypto is safer than fiat / gold, you're fucking retarded. Everyone knows how fast crypto can crash once it rises (BTC meme), so if the public started buying certain coins long term hodlers will just dump and then people start panic selling = coin is fucked. If there is a crash everyone and everything feels it except the metals, those have been around for so long and everyone knows that it is the most secure way of holding value.

[Anonymous No.10963770]

>>10960207
better than gambling with cryptos, retard

[Anonymous No.10964032]

>>10962868
wagyu

[Anonymous No.10964551]

>>10962895
also fuckload of ammo

[Anonymous No.10964568]

>>10963597
why the hell would long term holders cash out in a crisis, oh look my crypto just doubled against usd lets cash out in usd

[Anonymous No.10964830]

>>10960246
Prep for cash for clunkers round 2.

[Anonymous No.10964947]

>>10962513

>far from trivial

>literally can move millions of dollars of assets across borders seamlessly in your brain by memorising your private key which not a single person knows you own aside from yourself
>can set up a smart contract to execute trade transactions when only certain parameters are met

Meanwhile

>lugging around a trunk full of gold bullion which the first nigger to flag you down with a 9mm can have for free

I own both PMs and crypto btw, not just bias towards cryptos. >>10962513

[Anonymous No.10965116]

>>10963597
>>10964568
Crypto will probably get fucked hard during the initial deflationary spiral, but depending on how strong the QE injection is, it could rocket up like a MOFO.

[Anonymous No.10965223]

Buy storable food as a hedge against inflation. Regular can of soup lasts a lot longer than the expiration date.