UBI resulting in positive Black Swans?

[Anonymous No.12970831]

I'm sure most of you are familiar with Nassim Taleb's book on Black Swans, comes from far left of tail of distribution, They are major impacts that are a surprise to everyone, cause more of an effect than things with a normal distribution, and are rationalized by hindsight.

Would UBI result in an antifragile environment?

Would the disorder from giving a bunch of people money result in unplanned disruptors having a positive effect while 90% of the UBI recipients just stay at home and smoke pot?
Or, would it be just as likely to cause positive disruptions as negative ones?

[Anonymous No.12970870]

>>12970831
the whole process of automation and loss of jobs is a Black Swan producing machine since you are replacing something that has been a stable part of humanity ever since first societies, it will produce severe side-effects/iatrogenics which we won't notice until it's too late

[Anonymous No.12970914]

>>12970831
I'm about to buy skin in the game, should I buy this? Can we just have a book recc thread now?

[Anonymous No.12970958]

>>12970914
Skin in the game is good.
All of his books are good.

[Anonymous No.12971008]

>>12970914
Prepare to read explicit and implicit Taleb self-boasts sprayed all over the book.

[Anonymous No.12971054]

>>12970870
I talk about this in the other thread.
Basically, automation will result in the loss of specific jobs, but not jobs as a whole.
Basically, there will be limits, and we don't know what those are right now, and what the new jobs will be. And it's not just us. 100 years ago nobody would be able to predict that people would work in "Smartphone app development", the amount of billion dollar companies in that space, and so on.
So long as humans have desires, there will be work. Only in a utopia where our desires are met, will there be no work.

[Anonymous No.12971062]

>>12971008
Oh yeah, he totally does that.
But hey, men are supposed to be confident.

[Anonymous No.12971087]

>>12971054
I read your posts there. But my response would be that it's all just a speculation. The only thing certain is that it will change things and that will open up thousands of invisible possibilities and risks that we will discover as the time goes on - meaning we will move into even a more Black Swan inviting environment.

[Anonymous No.12971213]

>>12971087
Okay. Let me put it another way.
https://products.kitsapsun.com/archive/2001/01-06/0001_thomas_sowell__end_of_an_era_at_m.html
We have gone through the death of retail before. When we went from ordering products from general stores, to through the Sears Catalog.
The argument Taleb makes is that WW2 wasn't expected, and you can see this from treasury bond rates.
The automation of trucks isn't a black swan event, it is something everyone is predicting. What would be a black swan, is a second or third order effect that resulted from the automation of truck drivers. As an example because I am uncreative, the bankruptcy of 80% of grocery stores. If you look at grocery store stock prices, this isn't something that people are predicting, they're still holding walmart stocks, but if this did happen, everyone would say "oh that was obvious it would happen" in retrospect, after it does.

[Anonymous No.12971472]

>>12970831
Automation could be a good thing not a bad thing and could create a new renaissance. Think back to how agriculture changed human society. Before agriculture every person was devoted to finding food. With agriculture 1 person could feed 100 people. Those 100s of people can now devote their time to other things like technology development, politics, philosophy exc. Automation will have a similar effect. 1 person through automation will be able to support 100000s of people, those people will be able to devote their time to other more productive things. It will not work under the current framework though, society and culture will have to change in order to enable people under automation.

[Anonymous No.12971490]

Yes. The agricultural revolution paved the way for the industrial revolution. That's not to say that it will be wholly painless, but you're potentially freeing up a large portion of the population to engage in creative enterprise rather than repetitive unskilled or semi-skilled labor. It COULD be a game changer, but we don't know for certain yet.