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22642193 No.22642193 [Reply] [Original]

People on crypto space usually say other coins cant follow the same stock-to-flow pattern as bitcoin, but I do believe an asset like Monero, that is PoW and had no premine could still follow the same logic. However Monero is still susceptible to Bitcoin's price, so both things go on simultaneously. So in order to help my anon bros I mixed both possibilities, and I'll leave it here for you guys.

>> No.22642240
File: 157 KB, 1421x709, Captura de tela de 2020-09-19 17-13-41.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22642240

>>22642193
First, BTC SF model, of course. Prediction in yellow.

>> No.22642257
File: 122 KB, 1405x708, Captura de tela de 2020-09-19 17-13-59.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22642257

>>22642193
Now Monero. Orange line is Monero's SF model, and yellow line is the same model, but based on Bitcoin's price cycle.

>> No.22642323

>>22642257
Which is equal to say XMR is way undervaluated right now.

>> No.22642455

>>22642323
In case anyone wants the equation, it is:
Orange =EXP(A)*SF^C
A = -0,7
B = 1,9
SF = 100 / Yearly Inflation

Yellow =((SFXMR/SFBTC)*C+D)*BTCPRICE
SFXMR = 100 / Yearly Inflation for XMR
SFBTC = 100 / Yearly Inflation for BTC
C = 0,013
D = 0,003

>> No.22643071

Nice work anon. Although XMR is already my biggest hold, I want to load up on some more. Unfortunately, however, it isn't dipping. Do you think I'll have another chance to get a nice price or must I FOMO in?

>> No.22643167

>>22643071
Thanks, pal. Just trying to help here.

>> No.22643243

>>22643071
I believe there's a high probability we wont see any dips before a x2 at least, we are probably in the early stages of the bull, which would be like 22/11/15 in that chart.

>> No.22643246

>>22643167

do we need to FOMO in now ?

>> No.22643366

>>22643246
I wont say you should FOMO now, but that is totally what I'm doing. Each month I'll buy as much XMR as I can, until the end of next year, even with prices increasing, because I'll be so much in profit, it wont be possible to lose money.

>> No.22643468

>>22642257
nice chart

>> No.22643577

>>22643468
Thanks anon, spread the word.

>> No.22643580

>>22642257
Thank you for the hopium. 10k monero... jfc im gonna be rich as fuck

>> No.22643628

>>22642455
which data did you use to get that equation?

>> No.22643661
File: 123 KB, 1405x708, stock to flow.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22643661

>>22643577
yeah

>> No.22643748
File: 58 KB, 1200x662, coin_metrics_network_chart (2).png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22643748

>>22643580
Dont forget this.

>> No.22643815

>>22642257
>>22643661
>>22643748
That's pretty cool. Now tell me the supply on this coin?

>> No.22643863

>>22643815
Circulating supply of about 17.7 million coins. I believe that around 19 million the mining output will finish deflating, and there will be a flat rate of 0.3 XMR mined per block. This is meant to incentivize miners to secure the blockchain without making transaction fees unbearable.

>> No.22643979
File: 401 KB, 1120x1225, monerolewd.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22643979

dangerously based thread
have some lewd monerochan

>> No.22644081

>>22643628
Op here, on phone. First get Monero SF model (orange) that best describe the price seen, A and B. Then use a numerical method to determine best C and D that describe previous SF model using BTC cycle (yellow).

>> No.22644267

What if on the path to 20k it gets delisted from CEX?
or someone really makes it traceable? (Doubt)
Also, if atomic swaps get implemented, wouldn't that make monero a
> "token" not needed?
I love the project but you have to admit it has quite some possible black swans hiding in the way

>> No.22644483

>>22644267
I fully expect this to get delisted eventually. This won't matter as decentralised exchanges become more common and easy to use.

A way to trace it would be the only real threat to its use. So far there's been nothing but bullshit put forth to vacuum up government funding, but I guess it's possible there'll be some big breakthrough that let's people track transfers.

I'm not up to speed on atomic swaps, but don't they just allow wallet to wallet? The chain will still show how much went where.

Black swans are black swans. By definition you can't plan around them, just try and deal if it happens.

Anyway, hoping the price stays low for the rest of the year so I can hit 100 XMR (40 atm.)

>> No.22645190

>using drug market taint coin

>> No.22645295

>>22645190
you mean usd?

>> No.22645317

>>22645295
lol
when > 90% of your liquidity is used by drug cartels you're asking for rico charges.

>> No.22645361
File: 403 KB, 1279x552, monero is juchepilled.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22645361

fuck america and fuck the RIS

>> No.22645382

>>22645361
IRS*

>> No.22645500

>>22645361
so what you're saying is the only use case for xmr is illegal online purchase and money laundering?

>> No.22645546

>>22645317
you can't prove that

>> No.22645581

>>22645546
doesn't matter, the politicians don't care if it's 95% or even 5% they will ask the public to THINK OF THE CHILDREN and the price will tank.

>> No.22645597

>>22645581
*moon
That also implies more than 10-20 people in the IRS know what Monero is, which is asking alot

>> No.22645655

>>22645597
this is why i despise the xmr people, they think that most people give a shit about anonymous ecash. wake up. they don't. when the public gets the first hit piece about the money used to buy all the child sex slaves on the DEEEEEEEPWEB they will demand it be made just as criminal as cp is and they deserve it for allowing their ecosystem to fill up with criminals.

>> No.22645938

>>22645655
Do you live in some sorta bizarro world where Bitcoin never became mainstream? Public distrust for anything a government official says (in the US at least) is at an all time low, 'think of the children' shit worked in 2008 but not today. Remember that before a few years ago people really did think that Bitcoin was anonymous.

>> No.22646014
File: 202 KB, 478x419, 1599933996209.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22646014

>>22645655
Wasted dubs.
Keep in mind even the shadow government now has a vested interest in its use for their own drug dealing and cp. Also, believe it or not, individuals still value their privacy - shower curtains, blinds, and bathroom doors are installed even in new homes.

>> No.22646077
File: 55 KB, 1024x683, 15947859247086252336473848408550.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22646077

>>22645500
Also supporting dissidents in all kinds of countries.

>> No.22646118

>>22645938
>Remember that before a few years ago people really did think that Bitcoin was anonymous.
this, xmr is what people think btc is, but isn't really. The black swans could go another way, where average people have to move money in large numbers to avoid tax or whatever. If shitholes like Venezuela flock to crpyto in hard times, so too can more advanced countries when the corona hits hard (reminder that corona has not hit hard yet). When the use of crypto becomes a game of hiding from the government, xmr will naturally be the top choice.

>> No.22646142
File: 99 KB, 769x1285, xmr.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22646142

>> No.22646143

>>22643071
i think 2020 will be looked back upon as the "why the fuck didn't I buy monero when it was <$100" year

>> No.22646165

>>22645317
>>22645190
they said the same exact thing about bitcoin when it was 3-digits.
that's okay though, boot-lickers don't deserve to make it.

>> No.22646235

>>22646165
there will never be another bitcoin, the powers that be will not permit it.

>> No.22646241

>>22646143
More like the "why the fuck didn't I buy monero when it was <$30???" year

>> No.22646291

>>22646014
if privacy is so important then why do people still use facebook?
it's because privacy is not that important to people, feeling like you have a voice matters far more.

>> No.22646384
File: 243 KB, 680x709, yes.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
22646384

>>22645500

>> No.22646579

>>22645655
So what you're saying is you hate non-cucks, who don't give a shit what plebs think.

>> No.22647239

>>22646235
>there will never be another bitcoin, the powers that be will not permit it.
it's already here.

>> No.22647336

>>22643863
>0.3 XMR mined per block
It will be 0.3 xmr per minute, or 0.6 per block.