Serious discussion bobos, 80 % or 50 % drop.

[Anonymous No.27970796]

Is this the end of a bubble meaning;
Crashing to $20k
OR
Will it go even further and do a full 80 % retracement?

Arguments against is that we only did a 2x above previous ATH.
Arguments for would be that we are getting close to the final capital that could flow into Bitcoin.
At $0.7T bitcoin reached 27 % of the total private investment gold (Gold bars and ETF's) at $2.56T.
There will not be an ETF as long as the regulators are unsure of market manipulation through unregulated exchanges / stable coins.
People are also starting to realize that Bitcoin is designed to get less secure with time and rely on ever increasing prices to incentives miners not to go offline or even collude, 51 % attack with idle hardware and short the market.

I am not so sure we're going to go above the previous ATH. We're reaching an end game, unless the FED go the route of Venezuela but that's pretty unlikely.

[Anonymous No.27970877]

IT will be a 90% drop as hedge funds lose trust after it drops 20% and sell everything. There will be a campaign against the stability of crypto

[Anonymous No.27971078]

I don't think it'll do any kind of serious retracement until the deflationary bust finally hits, but we'll see a parabolic move just before that point.

When no one thinks BTC or the market as a whole will ever crash again, and euphoria is at its peak, that's when it'll happen.

[Anonymous No.27971175]

>>27970877
I think 90 % is excessive, at least in the next 12 - 24 months.
BUT in the long run it might happen when miners go offline and then collude to 51 % attack the market with short positions on.
At that point any percentage drop is up for grabs.

[Anonymous No.27971221]

>>27970796
once interest rates go up, money from crypto will drain so quickly

[Anonymous No.27971235]

this drop? idk but i’m expecting sub 500 someday soon

[Anonymous No.27971270]

>>27970796
BEARPOSTERS AGAINST THE WALL

>BUY AT 41K

>SELL AT 40K

>FUD AT 38K

>SEETHE AT 50K

>BUY AT 60K

>SELL AT 40K

>ROPE AT 25K

[Anonymous No.27971360]

>>27971235
I'm talking next 12 - 24 months.

[Anonymous No.27971477]

>>27971270
There are almost no more greater fools to buy into this game.
That's why your little chart no longer will hold.
Things are getting interesting.

[Anonymous No.27971644]

4k will be the bottom.. it will happen this year

[Anonymous No.27972036]

>>27971644
Pretty unlikely.
The only thing that could push it down that low would be really harsh regulation from USA and/or EU.
OR Tether getting completely seized and defuncted. (It seems like they're moving slow, they are either lazy of afraid they'll trigger a crash which spreads throughout classical financial markets)
Don't really see how it would go down 90 % in less than 12 months otherwise desu.

[Anonymous No.27972200]

>>27972036
>OR Tether getting completely seized and defuncted. (It seems like they're moving slow, they are either lazy of afraid they'll trigger a crash which spreads throughout classical financial markets)

I think this is a reasonable theory given how wedded BTC and the markets as a whole seem to be. I see BTC's rise during COVID as more of a flight from cash into any available asset classes more than an endorsement of crypto itself.

[Anonymous No.27972286]

Gold market cap is 10T+

BTC is presumed to 2X that by EOD(ecade)

[Anonymous No.27972407]

>>27970796
anon the fed has already gone full Venezuela

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

[Anonymous No.27972422]

>>27970796
WHY IS THE FEE SOO DAAMN HIGH

[Anonymous No.27972486]

>>27970796
It might stop at the thicket of activity at 22-24k on a V shaped recovery.

[Anonymous No.27972758]

>>27972407
And don't to look at the velocity of M2 while you are at it.
>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

[Anonymous No.27972781]

>>27970796
>Arguments for would be that we are getting close to the final capital that could flow into Bitcoin.
>At $0.7T bitcoin reached 27 % of the total private investment gold (Gold bars and ETF's) at $2.56T.
>There will not be an ETF as long as the regulators are unsure of market manipulation through unregulated exchanges / stable coins.
>People are also starting to realize that Bitcoin is designed to get less secure with time and rely on ever increasing prices to incentives miners not to go offline or even collude, 51 % attack with idle hardware and short the market.

Fud

[Anonymous No.27972951]

>>27972286
>Gold market cap is 10T+
Yes, if you count industrial gold and gold held by central bankers, NOT if you count privately held investment gold.
Ray Dalio have posted data on this, go look it up if you're interested.

[Anonymous No.27973079]

>>27972407
You're delusional:
https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/money-supply-m2

M2 increased 25 % last year which IS alarming.
But it's not catastrophic, especially if deleveraging occurs after Covid, then we won't see any significant inflation.

[Anonymous No.27973198]

THE UNIVERSE IS MINE TO COMMAND!

[Anonymous No.27973247]

>>27972781
Arguments aren't FUD if you can't prove that they are false arguments.
Calling it fud just makes you seem like a coping permabull (or perhaps you were just being sarcastic?).

[Anonymous No.27973476]

I dont think either will happen now, because if you sell your crypto and let the money in the bank, you will get negative interest, basically being penalized for investing.
And stocks is even more manipulated than crypto, as the GME example have show. In fact, the GME rugpull is a reason for people to buy more crypto, specially institutions.

[Anonymous No.27973483]

under 50%

[Anonymous No.27973594]

>>27973483
I would say 20% correction at most. Bitcoin is battling for the 40k wall.

[Anonymous No.27973691]

>>27973594
its battling and there seem to be a lot going in its favor. It might have found a price to rest at for a while.

[Anonymous No.27973831]

Previous previous ATH 1177
First had fake bottom at -70% (345)
then finally bottomed at -86% (163) in about 1 year

Previous ATH 19764
First had fake bottom at -70% (6k) then finally bottomed -84% (3148) in one year

All my numbers are from BLX ticker on TV

It's safe to assume whatever the next ATH is, just buy after -70% correction, without leverage, sell the DCB, rebuy after -85% correction

[Anonymous No.27973928]

>>27970796
hard to say. i've been out of btc since jan 7th, average sell 34k. so definitely bearish bias; but i don't know.
we're not even at 30k, or even 20k so when/if we make it there that'll give us better info. if i had to guess I would say more than 20k.

[Anonymous No.27974122]

>>27971477
there are plenty. go into the street and ask the first 10 people you meet if they have crypto investments

[Anonymous No.27974377]

>>27974122
pool of willing buyers
they might have a $1, not care about store of value or don't even understand or care.
no matter how great of a salesman or shill you are, some just are never going to buy.
total volume is trending down, sure it might spike up but I think the hype is dead for now

[Anonymous No.27974516]

This whole thread lmao you just sit in here and suck each other off? Go buy some bitcoin and stop being so salty, you'll feel much better once you have it. Comfy as fuck holding btc and not cash.

[Anonymous No.27974812]

>>27974516
Not salty bro.
I sold the top 2017 and I am pretty sure I did it this time as well.
We're close at least.
Not going to be a retard hodler á la Gamestop or Hodlers in 2018.
No thanks.

We are literally 2x away from reaching 50 % of the market cap of all investment gold.
Despite a lot of uncertainties and peak hype.
Bulls are only running on hopium now, I see no good arguments. Only argument is "muh shaart in my pants said so".

[Anonymous No.27975148]

>>27974812
what's your average sell price in 2017 and this run?

[Anonymous No.27975400]

>>27975148
>$17.5k
>$39.5k

Pretty much sold it all at once both times.
I did sell in smaller batches over 2 days 2017 and now as well.

[Anonymous No.27975409]

>>27974812

Doge has proved this bullshit to be absolutely incorrect

[Anonymous No.27975464]

>>27975409
Lol.
If you say so.

[Anonymous No.27975698]

>>27975464

I don't need to say so, its evidenced. This bullshit FUD was happening while ya'll laughed at the Doge idiots and then suddenly Doge gained a floor of 0.05cents. You oldfags are the boomers of the crypto world.

[Anonymous No.27975918]

>>27975698
You're going to get sooo fucking burned.
Not even going to guide you through your reatarded reasoning.
You will get burned and that's fine.
Good luck.

[Anonymous No.27976182]

>>27975918

reatarded

[Anonymous No.27976265]

>>27970877
hedgefunds don't lose interest dummy they have some premade plan that they follow

[Anonymous No.27976331]

retard nocoiners enjoy not making money

[Anonymous No.27976689]

>>27974812
spotted the newfag who wasn't here for 2017 and thinks line go up forever. take some profits, retard.

[Anonymous No.27976775]

>>27976331
I made $1M last bullrun and I made $800k this bullrun (in crypto, I only re-invested $100k of the first $1M i made).
I have you delusional hodlers to thank for a lot desu. You euphoria bulls are the best!

[Anonymous No.27976807]

>>27970796
16xvcbGp9i1aLfjCPWCx15r8ykW4QMEiz6
send me btc lol

[Anonymous No.27976864]

>>27976775
16xvcbGp9i1aLfjCPWCx15r8ykW4QMEiz6
thats awesome bro can you send me some of dat shit?

[Anonymous No.27977065]

>>27976807
>>27976864
Check out this shit

[Anonymous No.27977090]

Dump over, number go back up now.

[Anonymous No.27977191]

>>27976864
sent

[Anonymous No.27977268]

elliot wave chartist here, the bottom is 15k

[Anonymous No.27977443]

>>27972036
I suppose 12k will be the resistance.

[Anonymous No.27977499]

>>27974812

I have pretty much the same feeling

[Anonymous No.27977504]

>>27970796
I'm bearish myself on this, but it's really not happening for now.
>https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
This indicator was never wrong.
There will be a slight correction yes, but BTC will go this bullrun to 200K and crash to 15K at worst.

[Anonymous No.27977656]

>>27977268

I believe you

[Anonymous No.27977971]

>>27972951
>implying anyone actually knows how much gold is privately held.

I don’t remember them asking that question on the census.... if they ever ask I will have to recount the sad tale of when I lost all my PMs in a tragic boating accident, along with all my guns. Barely made it out alive. Yea I know I never registered a boat, it was a blow up pool toy. Sure I had no business a mile out into the Atlantic on that thing, mistakes were made. No I didn’t file a police report, is that a crime?

[Anonymous No.27978249]

>>27977504
The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis. In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore.

[Anonymous No.27978378]

>>27978249
Yes and that day isn't today.

[Anonymous No.27978590]

>>27971221
>debt higher than ever
>economy in the shitter
>literal plague
Interest rates can’t be raised for at least another year

[Anonymous No.27979044]

>>27971078
Listen, this is how it's going to play out: BTC will breath a bit this week and scare everybody but it'll settle around 37K, that's when the grand finale starts: starting next week BTC will shoot up to 70K so fast it will kill some people by means of fomo-psychosis. Shit will hit the fan real quick and BTC will dip down again to around 60K leading to the financial ruin of thousands (we might see some suicides) and then, then all hell will break lose: just before the end of the month BTC will go absolutely ballistic and shoot straight up like a cocaine fueled rocket to 120K!!!!!!!! At that point it's done. That's the absolute sling shot top. Brokers will be fucked. Retail buyers will be fucked. Literally everybody and their mum will try to cash out as fast as they possibly can but most won't be able to. It will be a massacre. A digital holocaust. BTC will nosedive like a propelled brick down to 20K and below where it is caught by absolute psychopaths, creatures with no soul and no fear. The transfer of wealth will be immense. Hundreds will go on shooting sprees trying to take as many people with them to hell as they can. Other people will throw themselves off of buildings. Small countries will go bankrupt. Some lucky individuals will become so perversely and absurdly rich they are going to start their own countries. Any bets are off at that point. Get ready or get fucked. These are the market end times and it's starting next week.

[Anonymous No.27980341]

>>27970796
whats this bullshit about the market cap of gold, thats peak PD schiff tier boomer posting
there has never been a correlation between crypto MC and gold MC

for starters gold is heavily manipulated down, other than that buying gold isn't quite easy globally speaking
crypto is going to bring at least a billion now people into the virtual internet economy that prior to crypto were excluded from the world economy
its no middlemen nature will ensure the rise of business today thought impossible
not to mention that market cap is largely a meme anyway
and with that you are suggesting that theres a hard cap on crypto gains coming up
crossing the gold digit will be a meaningless event when it happens

as boomers die off, boomer tier investments are going with them, gold being one of them
similar like coins and stamps, kids these days don't even know what those are

[Anonymous No.27980468]

>>27970796
Last time is dropped by ~85% (20k to 3k). So I think over 80%, while it does seem a little bit unlikely to occur, is possible. I don't think the "only did a 2x above previous ATH" matters much, it has some influence but we have to remember 42k is a very big number for the vast majority of people and they don't remember what BTC was at before it started the run to 20k, the past doesn't matter for people, it's the present moment which matters, and it's people perceptions and emotions that matter. If BTC drops below 20k then panic and fear and despair will begin to set in bigly.

I'm certainly expecting more than 50%. A retest of 20k is extremely likely, and if that happens then we will see 17k for sure. If the fear is strong enough then, then it can drop further, 15k, maybe 12k.

It would be nice if it does drop by 80% or more, as that would be under 9000.

[Anonymous No.27980495]

>>27971270
>BTC will go up forever and ever
you've lived through the golden bull. this run up to 40k has happened at a time of lower volume than 2016-2017. You don't even hear about it in media anymore. Institutional investors are going to bail during the next sell-off

[Anonymous No.27980744]

>>27980468
btc would have to run up all the way to 76k for a measly 2x gain. more to be gained on the downside shorting imo
>>27980495
of course there's going to be less volume if you count it as btc only.
see here for total dollar volume >>27974377
which is more accurate.

[Anonymous No.27980868]

The mere fact that something as empty and worthless as doge is seriously discussed should tell you that the whole of crypto is nothing than smoke and mirrors, a big scam running entirely on wishful thinking and incestuos hype.

[Anonymous No.27981136]

>>27980868
people spending money on doge are nothing different that retards that spend money on other stupid shit

[Anonymous No.27981438]

>>27974377
ngmi

[Anonymous No.27982000]

>>27971175
>when miners go offline
What?
What is going to cause miners globally to go offline? At least enough for a 51% attack to happen?

[Anonymous No.27982292]

>>27979044
Cool story bro

[Anonymous No.27983564]

>>27971078
wheres playing for losses to avoid taxman on that scale?

[Anonymous No.27984691]

>>27976182
>reatarded
kek

[Anonymous No.27985639]

>>27970796
12-15 k

[Anonymous No.27985907]

>>27973079
>if deleveraging occurs after Covid
Ha ha, they tried to do this before covid and the markets puked. There is no way back now.

[Anonymous No.27986161]

And you idiots wonder why you stay poor forever with this reality-denying sour grapes mindset.

I would almost pity you losers if you weren't so malign and disgusting. No wonder you have no sex life or friends.

[Anonymous No.27986891]

>>27979044
checked

[Anonymous No.27986941]

>>27970796
God I hope a crash comes soon. I need to acooooomulate

[Anonymous No.27987017]

>>27970796
Got i hope so, i just shorted BTC and ETH.

[Anonymous No.27987481]

>>27970796
anyone who thinks a crash is coming soon is deluded, we had 3 years to build up to getting back to ATH and a reasonable correction once it was breached....it's unironically just getting started

[Anonymous No.27987625]

>>27987481
yeah, but this time it's different

[Anonymous No.27987901]

>>27987481
the bulltards are just as deluded anon