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29955411 No.29955411 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

Alright big brains only thread, no schizoid momma basement boys.

>every retard faggot is saying money printer goes brrrrr
>every deep thinker is worried about the very clear DEFLATIONARY forces going on in the market
>japan did money printing and QE for decades and never got inflation
>people use stimulus checks to pay down credit card loans and debt, paying down loans/credit is the DESTRUCTION of money

My prediction is we will first have deflation until there is a liquidity crisis and a wave of bankruptcies. This will short squeeze the dollar and endanger the whole financial system, especially if the fed doesnt keep doing QE until they can create their digital currency.

>> No.29955453

>>29955411
instead of having a big brain thread on conspiracies you should have a thread on how to get bitches

>> No.29955601

>There is a widespread narrative that Japan printed a ton of money and still ended up with deflation, which is not quite an accurate characterization.
>In short, the process that the United States is beginning to go through in the 2020s is in most ways quite different than what Japan went through during the past few decades. This article compares and contrasts the process of Japanification with the United States as it pertains to the question of deflation or inflation going forward.
https://www.lynalden.com/economic-japanification/

>> No.29955637

>>29955453
Z O O M E R
O
O
M
E
R

>> No.29955866

>>29955453
what conspiracy.
look at the data. france and spain both reported negative and 0% cpis. japan had negative cpi again. American productivity in labor market is dropping. what part of this screams inflation? there is a rise in commodity prices but im betting this is on expectations of inflation. when consumers reject higher prices we will see a collapse in commodity prices

>>29955601
alright give me a minute im reading it

>> No.29955974

>>29955453
Nice twitter joke, faggot

>> No.29956144

Fucking disgusting gosha rubchinskiy wearing slav

>> No.29956244

>>29956144
I think he looks cute

>> No.29956308

>>29955601
so i just read most of it and it isnt really disproving what i said.
>At most, QE alone is anti-deflationary, or inflationary for asset prices in particular. On its own, QE doesn’t result in more money in peoples’ pockets chasing more goods, or higher commodity prices.

yeah QE isnt inflationary. Its a tool used to allow banks to lend more but if you look at FRED data, lending is actually contracting meaning broad money isnt growing.

you can also see supply of money isnt growing as fast as demand for money by doing M2/monetary base also known as the money multiplier

>> No.29956552

>>29955411
What you say makes sense to me but I'm just some autistic HS dropout so what do I know?
If times were normal and this amount of money was being printed I'd be a little concerned, but we're living in a lockdown. Most people can't even go to a GYM so I don't know where this "HYPERINFLATION IS COMING" doom porn came from. Yeah sure I have more money than I did last year but I don't have anything to spend it on. So like most I'm dumping my extra cash into stocks and crypto.

>> No.29956636

Post 2008 taught us a lot of things, a lot of economists kind of lost their minds when they saw it happen.

You can print as much money as you want as long as all the institutions agree to ignore common sense and continue to lend at low interest rates. As long as they lend cheaply, then money won't inflate. As long as companies can continue to borrow cheaply then the economy should continue to BRRR.

Somehow this will bite us in the ass. But for now as long as everyone does their part, things look okay. Probably no 200 dollar loaves of bread anytime soon.

>> No.29956721

>>29956552
Money printer has been going BRRR for months now. Historically that has always led to hyperinflation,the value of currency is an incredibly fragile thing.

>> No.29956838

>>29956636

I would advise to read the article linked by

>>29955601

And also consider the mass exodus of money leaving the US debt market right now. The 10 year treasury rate has gone from like 1% to 1.5% in a month. It dipped on friday, but that's exactly it, a dip. Also remember that foreclosure & eviction moratoriums still haven't ended in much of the US.

>> No.29956844
File: 74 KB, 1610x792, 1614552346192.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
29956844

>>29956552
we are fucked

>> No.29956942

Fucking stupid ass Zoomers, we just got through deflation in the last 2 years. Inflation is on our doorstep

>> No.29956991

>>29955601
>muh japan
Americans are not Japanese stop repeating this cope. Deflation is happening in Japan because Japanese are super frugal and save all their money while having zero debt. Does that sound like something Americans will ever do. Yes US economy is going through the same motions as Japan, but the end result will be completely different because Americans are not Japanese, they'll keep piling on more and more debt

>> No.29956996

>>29956636
this.

They're just going to go full MMT EAT Z BUGZ for rich people. OP says "if they don't do QE"... like do you really think the elite even want to cut off their top companies from their ranks? Their top companies who would be drowning in debt if it wasn't for the fucking rainbow wig interest rates? Nah I don't think so. I think they'll just print and print and print until they DO want to accumulate the large companies during their default but I don't think there are nearly enough people in literal wage cages (see amazon) yet. The time is not now, stop holding out for it, remember Powels speeches like clockwork when the market dipped last year? Expect that until we're all slaves of the corporations, and then it will be the corporations turn to be slaves, until we're all slaves of the none. PEACE

>> No.29957012

>>29955411
high IQ take. thanks anon

>> No.29957093

>>29956308
QE should be inflationary but was funneled to corporations over the past 5 years instead of regular people
Now instead of just interacting with treasuries the fed owns a bunch of shit corporate liabilities
When they own trillions of that shit they cannot tighten the money supply effectively because if they ever raise rates they will be forced to print trillions to cover their balance

QE might not be inflationary in the short term but it leads you to a path where your options are hyperinflation or artificially low rates which stagnate the credit markets (you are here) which will make the printer turn on which will cause a tumble in equities which will cause a market panic which will cause a market collapse

>> No.29957108

>>29956636
>. As long as they lend cheaply, then money won't inflate
youre wrong so much.

lending is what causes inflation. contraction in lending causes deflation.

>> No.29957154

>>29956721
wrong again. money supply is irrelevant if the money velocity is falling and people are too scared to spend. to create inflation you need m2v to pick up and its usually done by people taking loans and there is an increase of lending

>> No.29957278

>>29956991
>Japanese are super frugal and save all their money while having zero debt. Does that sound like something Americans will ever do.
yes and its happening now if you look at the fucking data. M2V has been dropping hard since 2008. americans arent having sex anymore and birthrates going down while the young are paying for a growing older group of people. labor force participation is dropping fast. we are lagging japan. germany is already in japans state.

American companies are already being scared to take debt. actually look at data instead of speaking out of your ass

>> No.29957309

>>29955411
Also since there are some smart frens here I want to know what y’all think about going short hyg
I got lucky and took a position last week, but wondering how much the stimmy will change sentiment
My options expire mid April so I don’t want to get time crushed and just wondering if I should sell now

>> No.29957338

>>29955866
>CPI
Lmao black lives matter has better statisticians

>> No.29957398

>>29957093
no so QE is basically cental bank buying debt from primary dealers to make lending conditions easier. the way this works is the fed trades reserve assets for treasuries with banks in repo transactions so banks can lend more. however when consumers dont want to take loans we dont see inflation. people need to borrow. this is the creation of credit/money. if they dont borrow and pay down debt, they are destroying credit/money. this is deflationary. the reserve assets dont leak into the economy either. theyre trapped thats why its called a liquidity trap

>> No.29957399

>>29956844
M1 was redefined in 2020, use m2 instead

>> No.29957475
File: 239 KB, 383x530, schiff.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
29957475

>>29957338
"GUYS INFLATION IS COMING FED IS LYING ON CPI LOOK AT MY BOOMER ROCK WHICH REALLY MEASURES INFLATION RETURNS"

>> No.29957539

>>29957398
So you make interest rates negative and pay people to take loans? Why won't a company seeking to make a profit do that?

>> No.29957543

>>29957309
>Also since there are some smart frens here I want to know what y’all think about going short hyg
i think there will be a wave of bankruptcies and a huge solvency event as we deflate and then after that we will have high inflation and maybe even hyper inflation. but we need deflation first.

lot of companies with big debt will get wiped. shorting hyg seems like the right move by i hate shorting

>> No.29957578

>>29957539
no. when interest rates are negative it refers to repo rate

>> No.29957775

>>29957578
sure but loan rates follow it right? If you pay your banks to be short on funds they will basically lend out at whatever terms they can or no?... I mean it sounds unsustainable, but any number manipulated by the central bank causes the bubble, negative is just another number according to some.

Here in Australia we give grants for housing. It is a QE programme which does very well at encouraging people to go into debt.

I dunno I see your point I just doubt that they would let that happen, given all that they have done thus far to avoid it, I don't see why they wouldn't just keep kicking that can.

>> No.29957849

>>29957775
... to the point of literal bailouts like they did in '08

>> No.29957943

>>29957475
fucking kek saving that image xD

>> No.29958167

What happened to Japan for the economy to stagnate for fucking 30 YEARS? It's capitalism a mistake?

>> No.29958187

>>29957475
Go outside bro

>> No.29958289

>>29958167
The Japanese are incredibly conservative when it comes to business and how they conduct it, to the point you might even call it stubborn. They are very slow to change so even throwing a ton of money at them won't have as much of an effect as you'd like. Combine this with a large and growing population of seniors, who are naturally going to be more frugal with their money, and it's a recipe for failure for any plans their central bank can try.

>> No.29958327
File: 34 KB, 1019x220, dollar_2011_2021.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
29958327

>>29957475
you forget to adjust the dollar values for inflation.

>> No.29958593

>>29957399
M2 was discontinued just a moment ago. Hmm... Why does this keep happening. It's as if they don't want us to see something...

>> No.29958726
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29958726

>>29955411
Honestly what's the point of worrying?
It happens than it happens
It doesn't than whatever
Not like it's going to effect your ability to shitpost
When the cable company turns off the internet that's when I'll start to worry

>> No.29958850

>>29955411
You have to be at least 12 to post here.

>> No.29958867

>>29957278
>americans arent having sex anymore and birthrates going down while the young are paying for a growing older group of people. labor force participation is dropping fast
You know what's not happening? People becoming frugal. The only reason Japan is deflationary is more people save money and fewer people take on debt, that's why all the keynesian bullshit they try doesn't work. It only works when people get into debt, if despite everything they to save money it doesn't work. That's never going to happen in US, Americans will always be happy to get into debt

>> No.29959027

>>29955411
>paying down loans/credit is the DESTRUCTION of money
this is why i say "fuck fiat it's a goddamn scam" because each dollar isn't money just a representation of debt

>> No.29959177

>>29958327
cope

>> No.29959271

>>29955866
And that will never happen because milk will never be too expensive for some people In This country. Nobody will ever stop buying because it’s too expensive.

>> No.29959274

>>29958167
download and read this
>https://libgen.is/book/index.php?md5=52710953DEA03419CE0EB970BD619017

>> No.29959332

>>29955411

Do you think you're some kind of genius? The central banking jews have been printing insane amounts of money to prevent the deflationary crash.

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