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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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58071952 No.58071952 [Reply] [Original]

Just talked to the smartest macro quant guy I know.

He's in his late 50's, but been trading forever and has been in crypto for a while too.

Ran quant trading department at several large funds, currently running one for a VC fund.

He thinks when cracks show up in economy and unemployment rises the initial crash in risk assets will be a fake-out.

Normally during economic turmoil, people run into the dollar.

But the belief in US monetary and fiscal policy is low. Huge deficit, rapidly increasing debt...

Normally economic turmoil and subsequent rate cuts lead to a big bid in gold and bonds. But he thinks the flows to treasuries (bonds) will be muted due to low confidence in the dollar and over supply of treasuries.

So big players will smell blood, dump treasuries, bid gold and risk assets. A treasury dump would cause the US gov to buy back bonds to keep yields low, which is inflationary and cause further decay in USD confidence and more reason to get out of USD and into anything else (Gold, BTC, risk assets)

He thinks BTC and crypto will be a major benefactor.

In the meantime a correction (fakeout) to $38k - $50k BTC and a stock market correction is quite possible/likely.

Fwiw I tend to agree w/ him.

>> No.58072037

>>58071952
Plausible. Bump for signal posting.

>> No.58072058

>>58071952
So what you're saying is that we need to go all in on $CFA coin.

>> No.58072084

>>58071952
Go long on TLT anons.
If yurope, then IS04

>> No.58072163

thanks for some sophisticated content on /biz, OP

>> No.58072336

>>58071952
Get your shitty chatbot fanfic outta here

>> No.58072342

>>58071952
This but unironically

>> No.58072372

I smell an America obsessed thirdie.

>> No.58072423

>>58071952
this is exactly what will happen, we'll have a correction in risk markets and then a huge pump not from fomo, but from panic buying, which is the nature of all cycles in wave 5

>> No.58072444

I, like many have confirmation bias, so I agree with this because it sounds like my bags are going to get pumped.

>> No.58072500

>>58071952
>it says here you talk like a fag, and your ship's all retarded.

>> No.58072515 [DELETED] 
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58072515

>>58071952
https://www.dextools.io/app/en/solana/pair-explorer/5WVFjPkoDzqr95aWf4x6h1TLsFjtMUjhvDtzBUssEJYb?t=1710879099810