Trade Wars, Markets

[Anonymous No.9969302]

sup /biz/

whats your take on the trade war between the US and China?
When will China announce their measures of retaliation? Which goods will be affected?
What do you think will happen to indices, crude oil, FX markets in the next days/weeks?

[Anonymous No.9969357]

>>9969302
>When will China announce their measures of retaliation?
They already did! They are going for tit for tat measures, no more, no less - which is smart.
>Which goods will be affected?
Remains to be seen.

US Leverage
>Importing less net goods means they can put more tarriffs than China. Full Stop.
>More than half of Chinese Forex Reserves are in USD, making securities sell off a double edged sword
>Trade War is potentially politically popular in marginal constituencies
>Trump could trash North Korea concessions, China wants peace on the Peninsula more than US wants it. (Having U.S. Troops on your doorstep isn't fun)

Chinese Leverage
>Many U.S. companies depend on Chinese companies for components, China could start putting tariffs on EXPORTS to U.S. disrupting US businesses
>Building on from that point: Chinese Dictatorship means that they can make politically unpopular or short-term economically devastating decisions where as Apple and Koch Brothers will lobby US congress hard if their bottomlines are clipped too much
>Possibility of artificially devaluing the Yuan to mollify effects of Tarrifs

[Anonymous No.9969394]

>>9969302
wait scratch that 'remains to be seen' - I misread your posts. I'm looking for the specific goods they've announced retaliatory tariffs on.

[Anonymous No.9969398]

>>9969302
Trump wins he wants to build a space army.

[Anonymous No.9969415]

>>9969302
It's good.

America's trade deals are basically foreign aid. Just look at the US' trade deficit.

[Anonymous No.9969426]

>>9969357
>>9969394

wow, didnt expect such an elaborate answer
thanks bro

[Anonymous No.9969432]

>>9969302
>>9969426
No worries.

>Which goods will be affected?
>China said it will impose additional tariffs on 659 U.S. goods, with duties on 545 of them to kick in on July 6, after Trump said Washington will impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese products.
>Beijing’s planned tariffs would add to duties it had already slapped on 128 U.S. goods, such as pork, fruits and nuts, in reaction to Trump’s earlier move to impose taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum.
>The U.S. goods affected on July 6 also include pork and fruit, as well as basedbeans, autos and a wide array of marine products.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/washingtons-capricious-trade-actions-will-hurt-u-s-workers-china-warns-idUSKBN1JH072

>Hours later -- early Saturday in China -- the nation’s Finance Ministry issued a list of 545 product categories, also covering about $34 billion in exports from the U.S., to be subject to an additional 25 percent tariff starting July 6. They included a variety of agricultural products, including basedbeans, corn and wheat along with beef, pork and poultry, plus automobiles. A second set of tariffs to begin at a later date spanned other goods including coal, crude oil, gasoline and medical equipment.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-21/china-reiterates-pledge-to-respond-to-a-u-s-escalation-on-trade

[Anonymous No.9969437]

>>9969302
you mean the US trade war with China, EU, and Canada.
trump will chicken out as soon as shit hits the fan and then take credit for bringing peace

[Anonymous No.9969438]

>>9969432
Damn wordfilter
>s()ybeans

No word on what effect this will have on American estrogen levels, hue hue hue

[Anonymous No.9969441]

>>9969432
will read through that thx

[Anonymous No.9969531]

>>9969437
Honestly doesn't seem likely under Trump one because of his personality and two because the US is in a much better position to impose tariffs on foreign powers then they are to play tit for tat against them. It sorta helps that the US is the world superpower and the dollar is still the world reserve currency which gives the US a ton of power to prop up all other deals they have.

Add that with the US being a huge market and very self sufficient on necessities (food, energy) and its clearly in a better situation to negotiate then China, Europe, and especially Canada which are very dependent on food/energy. This is likely what Trump has been talking about when he said were making bad deals, because the US is the superpower of the world and is not really exploiting this fact in its own short term interests for the US and instead is thinking about coalition building by giving most other states great deals on free trade and free-riding off US services (the internet, satellite systems, and military protection to name a few.) So you can make a case that this will fuck up the alliance system the US has but overall the US has been in a position to negotiate like this forever and get much more out of the economic situation then everyone has given it credit for.

[Anonymous No.9969550]

well biz.....DO YOU WANT A TOTAL TRADE WAR!

[Anonymous No.9969558]

Ill tell you something. The chinese are infiltrating amazon. That is all.

[Anonymous No.9969638]

>>9969531
>Honestly doesn't seem likely under Trump one because of his personality
trump has been constantly back peddling from various positions throughout his presidency. mexico paying for the wall, travel ban, obama care repeal, etc. as soon as it's apparent his initial stance isn't realistic he moves the goal posts.
>Add that with the US being a huge market and very self sufficient on necessities (food, energy)
necessities are a tiny fraction of global trade that none of these countries have to worry about. trade wars about economic growth
>especially Canada which are very dependent on food/energy
canada exports both food and oil to the US
>free-riding off US services (the internet, satellite systems
neither of those are US services
>military protection
the US isn't the only allied power with nukes
>the US has been in a position to negotiate like this forever and get much more out of the economic situation then everyone has given it credit for.
what exactly is the US negotiating for? putting tariffs on steel makes steel more expensive for US companies and consumers.

[Anonymous No.9969661]

>>9969638
>He doesn't know

don't worry everything covered

[Anonymous No.9969680]

>>9969558
Why would they? Their chink shit sites are bigger than Amazon, mostly dumbass drop shippers re-listing chink shit on eBay/amazon

[Anonymous No.9969744]

>>9969432
>Basedbeans
What did you mean by that ?

[Anonymous No.9969802]

>US onions down 20%
>US steel up 50%
>EU retaliatory tariffs in effect tomorrow

[Anonymous No.9969825]

>US manufacturers have to beg the government to import euro steel products because home companies are too shitty to manufacture them.

[Anonymous No.9969887]

>>9969415
That's delusion. The US economy focused on the high-value areas of the evonomy and oitsourced everything else. The US has no industrial capacity anymore and just put tariffs on what they needed to rebuild this industrial capacity (steel and electronics). Very 4D chess.

[Anonymous No.9969897]

The US supports the entire global trade system with its military. When countries like Germany and South Korea lose access to a system like that they will cease to exist, prepare for the coming global disorder by reading Peter Zeihan

[Anonymous No.9969903]

>>9969897
Zeihans tarot reading is already wrong, not even 6 months after he wrote it.

[Anonymous No.9969923]

>>9969744
>>9969438

[Anonymous No.9970043]

>>9969357
>Importing less net goods means they can put more tarriffs than China. Full Stop.
Nope
US:China rade balance is 1:4, meaning that the US imports 4 times more chinese products than the opposite.
However, china can put tariffs on US goods 4 times higher on retaliation.
So far, China has matched US tariffs dollar for dollar, regardless of the trade imbalance.

[Anonymous No.9970509]

>>9970043
what's wrong with having a trade deficit?
the US get's cheap stuff, and the chinese only accepts them to spend back in the US

[Anonymous No.9970527]

>>9970509
Nothing much is wrong with having a trade deficit, except there is a lot of your own currency in everyone else's hands.

[Anonymous No.9970639]

>>9970043
>However, china can put tariffs on US goods 4 times higher on retaliation.
But the US imports more than the US. or to put it another way, the US can restrict more capital inflow to China than China can do to the US in terms of imports and exports.

Without discussing secondary retaliatory measures like withholding exports, capital, forming a Cabal with the EU and Mexico et. al. or selling off USD reserves - in terms of Tariffs how can China in anyway win in a Tariff war again the US?

[Anonymous No.9970642]

>>9970527
so? that just encourages other countries to buy more from the states
but china has mostly been buying US treasuries with it. which is just a source of income for the government

[Anonymous No.9970683]

>>9969302
Buy Chineae silver pandas while you still can

[Anonymous No.9970687]

>>9970639
Put 400% tariffs on all US goods, effectively banning them, in a totally lawful WTO move.

The US can't cut off all imports from China, its economy depends on them. However, China can totally get rid of the 150 billions of shit they buy from the US.

>>9970642
Treasuries are also a source of passive income for China, and if all else fails, a way to get the US to follow Greece's path without the EU to bail it out.

[Anonymous No.9970712]

>>9970527
>Nothing much is wrong with having a trade deficit, except there is a lot of your own currency in everyone else's hands.

>>9970642
>so? that just encourages other countries to buy more from the states

It also means foreigners...really its multinational corporations but anyway... it means """foreigners""" therefore weld more power in the United States. Money (power) is concentrated too much into multinational companies hands and its getting out of control.

[Anonymous No.9970766]

if my chink coins dont go up trump may as well nuke them since they have invaded california and canada already

[Anonymous No.9970782]

>>9970712
The best thing about that trade deficit is it's mostly done by american companies. See Apple, doing all their manufacturing overseas and selling their shit at gold prices in the US.
>tariffs on China will hurt american companies
>retaliatory tariffs on the USA will hurt american companies
win-win for China

[Anonymous No.9970813]

>>9970687
>a way to get the US to follow Greece's path without the EU to bail it out.
greece's situation is nothing like the US's. it's a completely different situation
>>9970712
>Money (power) is concentrated too much into multinational companies hands and its getting out of control.
what's getting out of control? what are you imagine other countries are doing with this "power"
russia had more say in US politics than china and they spent pennies in comparison to what china holds

[Anonymous No.9970882]

>>9970813
Of course it is different, but the american banks exposed to treasuries and derivatives on treasuries will tank pretty hard if China starts dumping them.

[Anonymous No.9970976]

>>9970882
treasury bonds don't work like company stocks. their price sticks pretty close the the coupon rate. china selling them cheaper than that is just hurting themselves

[Anonymous No.9970982]

>>9970687
You are really fucking dumb. The massively skewed trade balance helps the U.S. in this case. China can't afford to lose the U.S. market because we account for fully HALF of the world's consumer market. There simply is no other developed country that can buy as many dildos and microwaves that we do. Any retaliation will be short lived because Chinese factories are already being reshored to the U.S. and Mexico (manufacturing costs have octupled for China in the last decade)

Another thing you must understand is the Chinese economy values thoroughput, not productivity. The Communist Party will do everything it can to ensure Chinese people are busy and employed. The government bribes people with jobs so they don't pull a Tiananmen. A full scale trade war is an existential threat to China, but Not the U.S.

[Anonymous No.9971019]

>>9970982
The US makes up only 10% of the chinese exports my dude, don't overestimate it.
Also, factories are getting so much reshored to the US that steel prices rose by 50% since the beginning of the trade war, because america has no meaningful production capacity.

[Anonymous No.9971032]

>>9971019
this just means /biz/ should invest in Pennsylvania steel